Winmark Corporation (WINA) Fair Value 2026

WINA · Specialty Retail ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 8 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Winmark Corporation (WINA) trades at $335.23, versus a $176.53 median fair value across its 8 active models — 47.3% below the current price. QOC: 8.6/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 8/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $134.40.

Key Facts

Ticker
WINA
Price
$335.23
Quality Score
8.6/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
8/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 8.6/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Winmark Corporation (WINA) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, Winmark Corporation (WINA) appears overvalued as of : the median of 8 independent fair value estimates is $176.53, 47.3% below the current price of $335.23. Estimates range from $134.40 to $241.99. WINA scores 8.6/10 on fundamental quality and 12/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. WINA’s -47.3% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Specialty Retail sector median is -15.0%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Winmark Corporation Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give WINA?

8 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($335.23)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $134.40 -59.9%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $142.72 -57.4%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $164.45 -50.9%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $167.37 -50.1%
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What Is WINA's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 8 independent models · $134.40 to $241.99

CirclFi's 8 active models place Winmark Corporation (WINA) between $134.40 and $241.99 per share, a spread of 61% of the median. The median of that range — $176.53 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for WINA, against a current price of $335.23.

Low · Bayesian DCFHigh · Regime Cross
$134.40median $176.53$241.99
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelBayesian DCF$134.40
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$241.99
Model agreement0 bullish · 8 bearishmoderate

A band of this width is typical. The methods agree on direction but weight growth, reinvestment and risk differently, so treat the median as a centre of gravity rather than a precise target.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on WINA, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Winmark Corporation (WINA) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Winmark Corporation's intrinsic value is estimated at $176.53, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $335.23. With 8 out of 8 models flagging downside (-47.3% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $241.99 (-27.8%), while Bayesian DCF — the most conservative — estimates $134.40 (-59.9%). This +32.1% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Winmark Corporation's intrinsic worth. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About WINA?

8 of 13 models are currently active for WINA. All 8 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for WINA is $176.53 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $134.40 on its own, implying -59.9% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does WINA Rank in Specialty Retail?

Among 49 Specialty Retail stocks, WINA ranks #7 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.6 places WINA in the top tier.

Within the Specialty Retail space, Winmark Corporation competes in an environment where store traffic trends often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is WINA a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns WINA a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

8 of 13 models are active for Winmark Corporation. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Winmark Corporation is rated at 8.6/10. This strong-tier score demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +32.1% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every WINA valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across WINA's 8 active models, average confidence is 53%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Winmark Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Specialty Retail Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Specialty Retail stocks with 13-model coverage

CASYCasey's General Stores, Inc.QOC 8.6ASOAcademy Sports and Outdoors, Inc.QOC 8.5FIVEFive Below, Inc.QOC 8.6BBWBuild-A-Bear Workshop, Inc.QOC 8.5MNSOMINISO Group Holding LimitedQOC 8.6DKSDICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc.QOC 8.4ARKOArko Corp.QOC 7.5BQBoqii Holding LimitedQOC 5.9GHSTGHST World Inc.QOC 4.7WSMWilliams-Sonoma, Inc.QOC 9.3ARHSArhaus, Inc.QOC 8.9

Read investment analysis: CASY · ASO · FIVE · BBW · MNSO · DKS · ARKO · BQ · GHST · WSM · ARHS

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to WINA?

7 companies across all industries closest to WINA’s Quality of Company score of 8.6/10.

TRTootsie Roll Industries, Inc.QOC 8.6AATCAutoscope Technologies CorporationQOC 8.5TRNOTerreno Realty CorporationQOC 8.6AVNWAviat Networks, Inc.QOC 8.5FBIZFirst Business Financial Services, Inc.QOC 8.6VCVisteon CorporationQOC 8.5NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: TR · AATC · TRNO · AVNW · FBIZ · VC · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Winmark Corporation’s Valuation?

What is Winmark Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Winmark Corporation (WINA)'s intrinsic value at $176.53 — the median of 8 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $134.40 to $241.99. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $134.40 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is WINA overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $335.23, 0 of 8 active models suggest WINA may be undervalued, while 8 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 8 fair value estimates is $176.53, 47.3% below the current price of $335.23 — a consensus view that WINA is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Winmark Corporation's business model in Specialty Retail.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.6 mean for WINA?

Winmark Corporation's QOC of 8.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on WINA?

CirclFi analyzes WINA with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 8 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on WINA?

Of the 8 models currently active on WINA, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $241.99 per share, and Bayesian DCF is the most bearish at $134.40. CirclFi's published fair value for WINA is the median of that range, $176.53, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 61% of the median — a normal spread for a company of this profile. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is WINA a value trap in 2026?

Winmark Corporation's Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, Winmark Corporation (WINA) has a median fair value of $176.53 — 47.3% below the current price of $335.23 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/WINA/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this WINA valuation
  • Financial statements: Winmark Corporation 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000908315) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for WINA as of ; valuations recomputed .

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