Five Star Bancorp (FSBC) Fair Value 2026

FSBC · State Commercial Banks ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (14/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, Five Star Bancorp (FSBC) trades at $47.79, approximately 51% below CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $96.62. QOC: 8.6/10. Value Trap Risk: 14/100 (SAFE). 12/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
FSBC
Price
$47.79
Quality Score
8.6/10
Value Trap Risk
14/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +102.2% upside with 56% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (12/13) may reduce confidence

Valuation Matrix

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($47.79)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
$96.62 +102.2%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
$21.45 -55.1%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$59.32 +24.1%
First Chicago
Medium Conviction
$84.17 +76.1%

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What Is Five Star Bancorp (FSBC) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Five Star Bancorp's intrinsic value is estimated at a composite fair value of $59.09. While the stock appears modestly undervalued at $47.79 (implied upside of +23.7%), our analysis suggests a thinner margin of safety across 7 of 12 bullish models. Notably, Bayesian DCF sees the most upside at +102.2% (fair value: $96.62), while EPV is the most conservative at -55.1% ($21.45). The spread between these extremes — +157.3% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About FSBC?

12 of 13 models are currently active for FSBC. Of these, 7 models suggest upside while 5 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates FSBC's intrinsic value at $96.62, implying +102.2% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does FSBC Rank in State Commercial Banks?

Among 170 State Commercial Banks stocks, FSBC ranks #41 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.6 places FSBC in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued State Commercial Banks Stocks →

The State Commercial Banks sector introduces analytical considerations specific to financial institution businesses. For Five Star Bancorp, metrics like CET1 capital ratio provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is FSBC a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns FSBC a score of 14/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for Five Star Bancorp. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Five Star Bancorp scores 8.6 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +157.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every FSBC valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across FSBC's 12 active models, average confidence is 40%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Five Star Bancorp Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar State Commercial Banks Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related State Commercial Banks stocks with 13-model coverage

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See all State Commercial Banks stocks ranked →

Frequently Asked Questions About Five Star Bancorp

What is Five Star Bancorp's intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Five Star Bancorp (FSBC) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $96.62. The Quality of Company score is 8.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is FSBC overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $47.79, 7 of 12 active models suggest FSBC may be undervalued, while 5 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Five Star Bancorp's business model in State Commercial Banks.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.6 mean for FSBC?

Five Star Bancorp's QOC of 8.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on FSBC?

CirclFi analyzes FSBC with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is FSBC a value trap in 2026?

Five Star Bancorp's Value Trap score is 14/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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