Timberland Bancorp, Inc. (TSBK) Fair Value 2026

TSBK · Banks - Regional ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.3 /10

32 fundamental signals · 6 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (6/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Timberland Bancorp, Inc. (TSBK) trades at $46.40, versus a $40.83 median fair value across its 6 active models — 12.0% below the current price. QOC: 8.3/10. Value Trap Risk: 6/100 (SAFE). 6/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
TSBK
Price
$46.40
Quality Score
8.3/10
Value Trap Risk
6/100
Models Active
6/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 8.3/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Timberland Bancorp, Inc. (TSBK) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, Timberland Bancorp, Inc. (TSBK) appears overvalued as of : the median of 6 independent fair value estimates is $40.83, 12.0% below the current price of $46.40. Estimates range from $27.55 to $56.53. TSBK scores 8.3/10 on fundamental quality and 6/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. TSBK’s -12.0% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Banks - Regional sector median is -22.5%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Timberland Bancorp, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give TSBK?

6 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($46.40)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $40.91 -11.8%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $40.31 -13.1%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $27.55 -40.6%
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What Is TSBK's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 6 independent models · $27.55 to $56.53

CirclFi's 6 active models place Timberland Bancorp, Inc. (TSBK) between $27.55 and $56.53 per share, a spread of 71% of the median. The median of that range — $40.83 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for TSBK, against a current price of $46.40.

Low · Markov DDMHigh · ML-RIV
$27.55median $40.83$56.53
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelMarkov DDM$27.55
Most bullish modelML Residual Income$56.53
Model agreement1 bullish · 4 bearishmoderate

A band of this width is typical. The methods agree on direction but weight growth, reinvestment and risk differently, so treat the median as a centre of gravity rather than a precise target.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on TSBK, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Timberland Bancorp, Inc. (TSBK) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Timberland Bancorp, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $40.83. Trading at $46.40, the stock is approaching fair value or slight overvaluation (implied return of -12.0%), as 4 of 6 models suggest limited further upside. Model dispersion is worth noting: ML-RIV targets $56.53 (+21.8%), versus Markov DDM at $27.55 (-40.6%). This +62.5% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About TSBK?

6 of 13 models are currently active for TSBK. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 4 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for TSBK is $40.83 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does TSBK Rank in Banks - Regional?

Among 352 Banks - Regional stocks, TSBK ranks #114 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.3/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.3 places TSBK in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Banks - Regional Stocks →

Timberland Bancorp, Inc.'s positioning within the Banks - Regional segment means that non-performing loan ratio plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including interest rate environment — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is TSBK a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns TSBK a score of 6/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

6 of 13 models are active for Timberland Bancorp, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Timberland Bancorp, Inc. earns a quality score of 8.3/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +62.5% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every TSBK valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across TSBK's 6 active models, average confidence is 42%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Timberland Bancorp, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Banks - Regional Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Banks - Regional stocks with 13-model coverage

PFSProvident Financial Services, Inc.QOC 8.3WAFDWaFd, Inc.QOC 8.3MPBMid Penn Bancorp, Inc.QOC 8.3FSBCFive Star BancorpQOC 8.3CTBICommunity Trust Bancorp, Inc.QOC 8.3DCOMDime Commercial Bancshares, Inc.QOC 8.3CCFNMuncy Columbia Financial CorporationQOC 7.9SFNCSimmons First National CorporationQOC 7.2NWPPNew Peoples Bankshares, Inc.QOC 8.7STBAS&T Bancorp, Inc.QOC 9.3ESQEsquire Financial Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.1

Read investment analysis: PFS · WAFD · MPB · FSBC · CTBI · DCOM · CCFN · SFNC · NWPP · STBA · ESQ

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to TSBK?

5 companies across all industries closest to TSBK’s Quality of Company score of 8.3/10.

ELSEquity LifeStyle Properties, Inc.QOC 8.3RCMTRCM Technologies, Inc.QOC 8.3ARLOArlo Technologies, Inc.QOC 8.3BJRIBJ's Restaurants, Inc.QOC 8.3NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: ELS · RCMT · ARLO · BJRI · NVDA

Where Does TSBK Sit in CirclFi's Banks - Regional Rankings?

TSBK is ranked against every other Banks - Regional stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Banks - Regional stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Timberland Bancorp, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Timberland Bancorp, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Timberland Bancorp, Inc. (TSBK)'s intrinsic value at $40.83 — the median of 6 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $27.55 to $56.53. The Quality of Company score is 8.3/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is TSBK overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $46.40, 2 of 6 active models suggest TSBK may be undervalued, while 4 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 6 fair value estimates is $40.83, 12.0% below the current price of $46.40 — a consensus view that TSBK is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Timberland Bancorp, Inc.'s business model in Banks - Regional.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.3 mean for TSBK?

Timberland Bancorp, Inc.'s QOC of 8.3/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on TSBK?

CirclFi analyzes TSBK with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 6 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on TSBK?

Of the 6 models currently active on TSBK, ML Residual Income is the most bullish at $56.53 per share, and Markov DDM is the most bearish at $27.55. CirclFi's published fair value for TSBK is the median of that range, $40.83, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 71% of the median — a normal spread for a company of this profile. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is TSBK a value trap in 2026?

Timberland Bancorp, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 6/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, Timberland Bancorp, Inc. (TSBK) has a median fair value of $40.83 — 12.0% below the current price of $46.40 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/TSBK/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this TSBK valuation
  • Financial statements: Timberland Bancorp, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001046050) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for TSBK as of ; valuations recomputed .

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