Community Trust Bancorp, Inc. (CTBI) Fair Value 2026

CTBI · Banks - Regional ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.3 /10

32 fundamental signals · 6 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (0/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Community Trust Bancorp, Inc. (CTBI) trades at $76.66, versus a $54.58 median fair value across its 6 active models — 28.8% below the current price. QOC: 8.3/10. Value Trap Risk: 0/100 (SAFE). 6/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
CTBI
Price
$76.66
Quality Score
8.3/10
Value Trap Risk
0/100
Models Active
6/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 8.3/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Community Trust Bancorp, Inc. (CTBI) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, Community Trust Bancorp, Inc. (CTBI) appears overvalued as of : the median of 6 independent fair value estimates is $54.58, 28.8% below the current price of $76.66. Estimates range from $34.73 to $58.01. CTBI scores 8.3/10 on fundamental quality and 0/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. CTBI’s -28.8% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Banks - Regional sector median is -22.5%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Community Trust Bancorp, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give CTBI?

6 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($76.66)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $46.52 -39.3%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $52.98 -30.9%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $34.73 -54.7%
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What Is CTBI's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 6 independent models · $34.73 to $58.01

CirclFi's 6 active models place Community Trust Bancorp, Inc. (CTBI) between $34.73 and $58.01 per share, a spread of 43% of the median. The median of that range — $54.58 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for CTBI, against a current price of $76.66.

Low · Markov DDMHigh · Regime Cross
$34.73median $54.58$58.01
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelMarkov DDM$34.73
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$58.01
Model agreement0 bullish · 6 bearishmoderate

A band of this width is typical. The methods agree on direction but weight growth, reinvestment and risk differently, so treat the median as a centre of gravity rather than a precise target.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on CTBI, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Community Trust Bancorp, Inc. (CTBI) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Community Trust Bancorp, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $54.58. Trading at its current price of $76.66, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 6 of 6 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -28.8%. Model dispersion is worth noting: Regime Cross targets $58.01 (-24.3%), versus Markov DDM at $34.73 (-54.7%). This +30.4% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About CTBI?

6 of 13 models are currently active for CTBI. All 6 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for CTBI is $54.58 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does CTBI Rank in Banks - Regional?

Among 352 Banks - Regional stocks, CTBI ranks #111 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.3/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.3 places CTBI in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Banks - Regional Stocks →

Community Trust Bancorp, Inc.'s positioning within the Banks - Regional segment means that deposit growth plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including loan portfolio growth — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is CTBI a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns CTBI a score of 0/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

6 of 13 models are active for Community Trust Bancorp, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Community Trust Bancorp, Inc. earns a quality score of 8.3/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +30.4% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every CTBI valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across CTBI's 6 active models, average confidence is 45%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Community Trust Bancorp, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Banks - Regional Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Banks - Regional stocks with 13-model coverage

WABCWestamerica BancorporationQOC 8.3MPBMid Penn Bancorp, Inc.QOC 8.3MTBM&T Bank CorporationQOC 8.3PFSProvident Financial Services, Inc.QOC 8.3HTBHomeTrust Bancshares, Inc.QOC 8.3TSBKTimberland Bancorp, Inc.QOC 8.3WTBAWest Bancorporation, Inc.QOC 7.9PROVProvident Financial Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.2SSBSouthState Bank CorporationQOC 8.7STBAS&T Bancorp, Inc.QOC 9.3ESQEsquire Financial Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.1

Read investment analysis: WABC · MPB · MTB · PFS · HTB · TSBK · WTBA · PROV · SSB · STBA · ESQ

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to CTBI?

6 companies across all industries closest to CTBI’s Quality of Company score of 8.3/10.

OPRXOptimizeRx CorporationQOC 8.3CORCencora, Inc.QOC 8.3ACADACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc.QOC 8.3CGNXCognex CorporationQOC 8.3RELYRemitly Global, Inc.QOC 8.3NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: OPRX · COR · ACAD · CGNX · RELY · NVDA

Where Does CTBI Sit in CirclFi's Banks - Regional Rankings?

CTBI is ranked against every other Banks - Regional stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Banks - Regional stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Community Trust Bancorp, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Community Trust Bancorp, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Community Trust Bancorp, Inc. (CTBI)'s intrinsic value at $54.58 — the median of 6 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $34.73 to $58.01. The Quality of Company score is 8.3/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is CTBI overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $76.66, 0 of 6 active models suggest CTBI may be undervalued, while 6 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 6 fair value estimates is $54.58, 28.8% below the current price of $76.66 — a consensus view that CTBI is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Community Trust Bancorp, Inc.'s business model in Banks - Regional.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.3 mean for CTBI?

Community Trust Bancorp, Inc.'s QOC of 8.3/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on CTBI?

CirclFi analyzes CTBI with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 6 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on CTBI?

Of the 6 models currently active on CTBI, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $58.01 per share, and Markov DDM is the most bearish at $34.73. CirclFi's published fair value for CTBI is the median of that range, $54.58, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 43% of the median — a normal spread for a company of this profile. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is CTBI a value trap in 2026?

Community Trust Bancorp, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 0/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, Community Trust Bancorp, Inc. (CTBI) has a median fair value of $54.58 — 28.8% below the current price of $76.66 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/CTBI/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this CTBI valuation
  • Financial statements: Community Trust Bancorp, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000350852) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for CTBI as of ; valuations recomputed .

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