Natural Gas Services Group, Inc (NGS) Fair Value 2026

NGS · Oil & Gas Field Services, NEC ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.8 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (18/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, Natural Gas Services Group, Inc (NGS) trades at $40.61, approximately 23% below CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $52.90. QOC: 8.8/10. Value Trap Risk: 18/100 (SAFE). 12/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
NGS
Price
$40.61
Quality Score
8.8/10
Value Trap Risk
18/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +31.2% upside with 55% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (12/13) may reduce confidence

Valuation Matrix

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($40.61)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
$52.90 +30.3%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
$5.07 -87.5%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$33.03 -18.7%
First Chicago
High Conviction
$53.29 +31.2%

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What Is Natural Gas Services Group, Inc (NGS) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Natural Gas Services Group, Inc's intrinsic value is estimated at a composite fair value of $31.82. Trading at $40.61, the stock is approaching fair value or slight overvaluation (implied return of -21.7%), as 7 of 12 models suggest limited further upside. Notably, ML-RIV sees the most upside at +69.1% (fair value: $68.69), while Dynamic NAV is the most conservative at -97.2% ($1.12). The spread between these extremes — +166.4% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About NGS?

12 of 13 models are currently active for NGS. Of these, 4 models suggest upside while 8 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates NGS's intrinsic value at $52.90, implying +30.3% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does NGS Rank in Oil & Gas Field Services, NEC?

Among 20 Oil & Gas Field Services, NEC stocks, NGS ranks #6 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.8/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.8 places NGS in the top tier.

Natural Gas Services Group, Inc's positioning within the Oil & Gas Field Services, NEC segment means that finding and development costs (F&D) plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including energy transition positioning — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is NGS a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns NGS a score of 18/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for Natural Gas Services Group, Inc. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Natural Gas Services Group, Inc scores 8.8 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +166.4% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every NGS valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across NGS's 12 active models, average confidence is 43%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Natural Gas Services Group, Inc Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Oil & Gas Field Services, NEC Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Oil & Gas Field Services, NEC stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: CLB · LBRT · NESR · OII · HAL

Frequently Asked Questions About Natural Gas Services Group, Inc

What is Natural Gas Services Group, Inc's intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Natural Gas Services Group, Inc (NGS) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $52.90. The Quality of Company score is 8.8/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is NGS overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $40.61, 4 of 12 active models suggest NGS may be undervalued, while 8 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Natural Gas Services Group, Inc's business model in Oil & Gas Field Services, NEC.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.8 mean for NGS?

Natural Gas Services Group, Inc's QOC of 8.8/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on NGS?

CirclFi analyzes NGS with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is NGS a value trap in 2026?

Natural Gas Services Group, Inc's Value Trap score is 18/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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