AAR Corp. (AIR) Fair Value 2026

AIR · Aerospace & Defense ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.2 /10

32 fundamental signals · 9 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (27/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-10-07, AAR Corp. (AIR) trades at $104.03, versus a $78.08 median fair value across its 9 active models — 24.9% below the current price. QOC: 8.2/10. Value Trap Risk: 27/100 (LOW). 9/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
AIR
Price
$104.03
Quality Score
8.2/10
Value Trap Risk
27/100
Models Active
9/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +49.4% upside with 60% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is AAR Corp. (AIR) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, AAR Corp. (AIR) appears overvalued as of : the median of 9 independent fair value estimates is $78.08, 24.9% below the current price of $104.03. Estimates range from $6.63 to $328.40. AIR scores 8.2/10 on fundamental quality and 27/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -20.1% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,777 rated companies as of 2026-10-07. AIR’s -24.9% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Aerospace & Defense sector median is -27.1%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy AAR Corp. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give AIR?

9 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($104.03)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $78.08 -24.9%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $155.40 +49.4%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $30.30 -70.9%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $44.23 -57.5%
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What Is AIR's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 9 independent models · $6.63 to $328.40

CirclFi's 9 active models place AAR Corp. (AIR) between $6.63 and $328.40 per share, a spread of 412% of the median. The median of that range — $78.08 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for AIR, against a current price of $104.03.

Low · RCMH-DCFHigh · Regime Cross
$6.63median $78.08$328.40
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelRCMH-DCF$6.63
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$328.40
Model agreement4 bullish · 5 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for AIR. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on AIR, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is AAR Corp. (AIR) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, AAR Corp.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $78.08. Trading at $104.03, the stock is approaching fair value or slight overvaluation (implied return of -24.9%), as 5 of 9 models suggest limited further upside. Notably, Regime Cross sees the most upside at +215.7% (fair value: $328.40), while RCMH-DCF is the most conservative at -93.6% ($6.63). The spread between these extremes — +309.3% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About AIR?

9 of 13 models are currently active for AIR. Of these, 4 models suggest upside while 5 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for AIR is $78.08 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does AIR Rank in Aerospace & Defense?

Among 94 Aerospace & Defense stocks, AIR ranks #22 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.2/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.2 places AIR in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Aerospace & Defense Stocks →

AAR Corp.'s positioning within the Aerospace & Defense segment means that program execution margin plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including space and satellite demand — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is AIR a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns AIR a score of 27/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

9 of 13 models are active for AAR Corp.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, AAR Corp. scores 8.2 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +309.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every AIR valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across AIR's 9 active models, average confidence is 47%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy AAR Corp. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Aerospace & Defense Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Aerospace & Defense stocks with 13-model coverage

VVXV2X, Inc.QOC 8.3CDRECadre Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.1TXTTextron Inc.QOC 8.3BYRNByrna Technologies Inc.QOC 8.1ATROAstronics CorporationQOC 8.4SWBISmith & Wesson Brands, Inc.QOC 8.0SPCEVirgin Galactic Holdings, Inc.QOC 6.6HOVRNew Horizon Aircraft Ltd.QOC 5.1ESLTElbit Systems Ltd.QOC 2.8BUKSButler National CorporationQOC 9.4HWMHowmet Aerospace Inc.QOC 9.3

Read investment analysis: VVX · CDRE · TXT · BYRN · ATRO · SWBI · SPCE · HOVR · ESLT · BUKS · HWM

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to AIR?

7 companies across all industries closest to AIR’s Quality of Company score of 8.2/10.

ETDEthan Allen Interiors Inc.QOC 8.2CRWDCrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.2CUBICustomers Bancorp, Inc.QOC 8.2WLFCWillis Lease Finance CorporationQOC 8.2YUMCYum China Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.2UTMDUtah Medical Products, Inc.QOC 8.2NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: ETD · CRWD · CUBI · WLFC · YUMC · UTMD · NVDA

Where Does AIR Sit in CirclFi's Aerospace & Defense Rankings?

AIR is ranked against every other Aerospace & Defense stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Aerospace & Defense stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About AAR Corp.’s Valuation?

What is AAR Corp.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts AAR Corp. (AIR)'s intrinsic value at $78.08 — the median of 9 independent model estimates as of 2026-10-07, ranging from $6.63 to $328.40. The Quality of Company score is 8.2/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is AIR overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $104.03, 4 of 9 active models suggest AIR may be undervalued, while 5 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 9 fair value estimates is $78.08, 24.9% below the current price of $104.03 — a consensus view that AIR is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits AAR Corp.'s business model in Aerospace & Defense.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.2 mean for AIR?

AAR Corp.'s QOC of 8.2/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on AIR?

CirclFi analyzes AIR with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 9 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on AIR?

Of the 9 models currently active on AIR, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $328.40 per share, and RCMH-DCF is the most bearish at $6.63. CirclFi's published fair value for AIR is the median of that range, $78.08, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 412% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is AIR a value trap in 2026?

AAR Corp.'s Value Trap score is 27/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, AAR Corp. (AIR) has a median fair value of $78.08 — 24.9% below the current price of $104.03 — as of 2026-10-07.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/AIR/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this AIR valuation
  • Financial statements: AAR Corp. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000001750) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for AIR as of ; valuations recomputed .

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