What Is AAR Corp. (AIR) Worth in 2026?
According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, AAR Corp.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $56.68. Trading at its current price of $130.80, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 12 of 13 models flag downside risk, projecting an average implied return of -56.7%. Notably, PWERM sees the most upside at +1.5% (fair value: $132.70), while Bayesian DCF is the most conservative at -98.5% ($1.99). The spread between these extremes — +99.9% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions. Among models with highest confidence, Markov DDM lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.
What Do the Models Say About AIR?
13 of 13 models are currently active for AIR. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 12 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates AIR's intrinsic value at $1.99, implying -98.5% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →
How Does AIR Rank in Aerospace & Defense?
Among 5 Aerospace & Defense stocks, AIR ranks #1 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.4/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.4 places AIR in the top tier.
AAR Corp.'s positioning within the Aerospace & Defense segment means that program execution margin plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including space and satellite demand — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.
Is AIR a Value Trap?
CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns AIR a score of 31/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →
Multi-Model Methodology
13 of 13 models are active for AAR Corp.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →
According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, AAR Corp. scores 8.4 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.
The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +99.9% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →
Data Sources & Confidence
Every AIR valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →
Across AIR's 13 active models, average confidence is 42%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.
CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →
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