Smart Sand, Inc. (SND) Fair Value 2026

SND · Oil & Gas Equipment & Services ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.5 /10

32 fundamental signals · 9 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (0/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Smart Sand, Inc. (SND) trades at $5.04, versus a $5.84 median fair value across its 9 active models — 15.9% above the current price. QOC: 7.5/10. Value Trap Risk: 0/100 (SAFE). 9/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $7.69.

Key Facts

Ticker
SND
Price
$5.04
Quality Score
7.5/10
Value Trap Risk
0/100
Models Active
9/13
Last Updated
Strength: Markov DDM suggests +63.6% upside with 57% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (9/13) may reduce confidence

Is Smart Sand, Inc. (SND) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Smart Sand, Inc. (SND) appears undervalued as of : the median of 9 independent fair value estimates is $5.84, 15.9% above the current price of $5.04. Estimates range from $0.72 to $10.01. SND scores 7.5/10 on fundamental quality and 0/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. SND’s +15.9% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Oil & Gas Equipment & Services sector median is -15.7%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Smart Sand, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give SND?

9 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($5.04)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $7.69 +52.7%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $5.84 +15.9%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $8.24 +63.6%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $3.62 -28.2%
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What Is SND's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 9 independent models · $0.72 to $10.01

CirclFi's 9 active models place Smart Sand, Inc. (SND) between $0.72 and $10.01 per share, a spread of 159% of the median. The median of that range — $5.84 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for SND, against a current price of $5.04.

Low · Regime CrossHigh · FTNN
$0.72median $5.84$10.01
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$0.72
Most bullish modelFTNN Topology$10.01
Model agreement6 bullish · 3 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for SND. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on SND, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Smart Sand, Inc. (SND) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Smart Sand, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $5.84. While the stock appears modestly undervalued at $5.04 (implied upside of +15.9%), our analysis suggests a thinner margin of safety across 6 of 9 bullish models. Notably, FTNN sees the most upside at +98.6% (fair value: $10.01), while Regime Cross is the most conservative at -85.8% ($0.72). The spread between these extremes — +184.4% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About SND?

9 of 13 models are currently active for SND. Of these, 6 models suggest upside while 3 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for SND is $5.84 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $7.69 on its own, implying +52.7% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does SND Rank in Oil & Gas Equipment & Services?

Among 52 Oil & Gas Equipment & Services stocks, SND ranks #29 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.5/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.5 indicates above-average quality.

As a oil and gas company, Smart Sand, Inc. operates in a sector where breakeven oil price is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating SND should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is SND a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns SND a score of 0/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

9 of 13 models are active for Smart Sand, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Smart Sand, Inc. is rated at 7.5/10. This strong-tier score demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +184.4% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every SND valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across SND's 9 active models, average confidence is 44%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Smart Sand, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Oil & Gas Equipment & Services Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Oil & Gas Equipment & Services stocks with 13-model coverage

FTKFlotek Industries, Inc.QOC 7.6PUMPProPetro Holding Corp.QOC 7.5VTOLBristow Group Inc.QOC 7.6NINENine Energy Service, Inc.QOC 7.1LBLandBridge Company LLCQOC 7.6NOANorth American Construction Group Ltd.QOC 6.9RCONRecon Technology, Ltd.QOC 5.7OIIOceaneering International, Inc.QOC 8.8HLXHelix Energy Solutions Group, Inc.QOC 8.0WHDCactus, Inc.QOC 9.2FTITechnipFMC plcQOC 8.9

Read investment analysis: FTK · PUMP · VTOL · NINE · LB · NOA · RCON · OII · HLX · WHD · FTI

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to SND?

7 companies across all industries closest to SND’s Quality of Company score of 7.5/10.

VTSVitesse Energy, Inc.QOC 7.5WASHWashington Trust Bancorp, Inc.QOC 7.5POWIPower Integrations, Inc.QOC 7.5RELLRichardson Electronics, Ltd.QOC 7.5FKYSFirst Keystone CorporationQOC 7.5HFUSHartford Creative Group, Inc.QOC 7.5NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: VTS · WASH · POWI · RELL · FKYS · HFUS · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Smart Sand, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Smart Sand, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Smart Sand, Inc. (SND)'s intrinsic value at $5.84 — the median of 9 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $0.72 to $10.01. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $7.69 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.5/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is SND overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $5.04, 6 of 9 active models suggest SND may be undervalued, while 3 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 9 fair value estimates is $5.84, 15.9% above the current price of $5.04 — a consensus view that SND is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Smart Sand, Inc.'s business model in Oil & Gas Equipment & Services.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.5 mean for SND?

Smart Sand, Inc.'s QOC of 7.5/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on SND?

CirclFi analyzes SND with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 9 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on SND?

Of the 9 models currently active on SND, FTNN Topology is the most bullish at $10.01 per share, and Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bearish at $0.72. CirclFi's published fair value for SND is the median of that range, $5.84, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 159% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is SND a value trap in 2026?

Smart Sand, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 0/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Smart Sand, Inc. (SND) has a median fair value of $5.84 — 15.9% above the current price of $5.04 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/SND/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this SND valuation
  • Financial statements: Smart Sand, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001529628) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for SND as of ; valuations recomputed .

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