What Is ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc. (ACAD) Worth in 2026?
According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $15.91, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $25.50. With 10 out of 13 models flagging downside (-37.6% average return), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. Notably, First Chicago sees the most upside at +17.8% (fair value: $30.05), while Regime Cross is the most conservative at -80.7% ($4.93). The spread between these extremes — +98.5% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions. Among models with highest confidence, Markov DDM lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.
What Do the Models Say About ACAD?
13 of 13 models are currently active for ACAD. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 12 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates ACAD's intrinsic value at $15.16, implying -40.5% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →
How Does ACAD Rank in Biotechnology?
Among 62 Biotechnology stocks, ACAD ranks #2 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 9.4/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 9.4 places ACAD in the top tier.
See all Most Undervalued Biotechnology Stocks →
Within the Biotechnology space, ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc. competes in an environment where cash runway (months) often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.
Is ACAD a Value Trap?
CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ACAD a score of 24/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →
Multi-Model Methodology
13 of 13 models are active for ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →
According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc. is rated at 9.4/10. This elite-tier score ranks among the highest-quality businesses in our coverage universe.
The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +98.5% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →
Data Sources & Confidence
Every ACAD valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →
Across ACAD's 13 active models, average confidence is 44%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.
CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →
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