Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (AGIO) Fair Value 2026

AGIO · Biotechnology ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.8 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (22/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (AGIO) trades at $40.55, approximately 179% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $14.51. QOC: 6.8/10. Value Trap Risk: 22/100 (SAFE). 12/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
AGIO
Price
$40.55
Quality Score
6.8/10
Value Trap Risk
22/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: CUCE Ensemble suggests +10.8% upside with 2% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Valuation Matrix

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($40.55)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
Low Conviction
 $14.51 -64.2%
Earnings Power Value
Medium Conviction
 $3.81 -90.6%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
 $44.92 +10.8%
First Chicago
Medium Conviction
 $5.42 -86.6%

Unlock the Full Matrix

Access 8 additional models including EROIC Spread, Markov DDM, and more.

$1.30 / day

Billed monthly ($39/mo) or annually ($299/yr)

Unlock All 12 Models →

Cancel anytime · No contracts · Instant access

What Is Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (AGIO) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a composite fair value of $41.07. Trading at $40.55, the stock is approaching fair value or slight overvaluation (implied return of +1.3%), as 7 of 12 models suggest limited further upside. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $153.27 (+278.0%), while ML-RIV — the most conservative — estimates $0.36 (-99.1%). This +377.1% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About AGIO?

12 of 13 models are currently active for AGIO. Of these, 4 models suggest upside while 8 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates AGIO's intrinsic value at $14.51, implying -64.2% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does AGIO Rank in Biotechnology?

Among 62 Biotechnology stocks, AGIO ranks #8 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.8/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.8 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Biotechnology Stocks →

Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc.'s positioning within the Biotechnology segment means that clinical trial success rate plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including breakthrough therapy designations — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is AGIO a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns AGIO a score of 22/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc. earns a quality score of 6.8/10. This respectable rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +377.1% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every AGIO valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across AGIO's 12 active models, average confidence is 25%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Biotechnology Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Biotechnology stocks with 13-model coverage

ADMAADMA Biologics IncQOC 10.0ACADACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc.QOC 9.4ALNYAlnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc.QOC 8.3ACRSAclaris Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 7.4ABCLAbCellera Biologics Inc.QOC 7.1ARCTArcturus Therapeutics Holdings QOC 7.0ARVNArvinas, Inc.QOC 6.9ANABAnaptysBio, Inc.QOC 6.8

Read investment analysis: ADMA · ACAD · ALNY · ACRS · ABCL

See all Biotechnology stocks ranked →

Frequently Asked Questions About Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc.

What is Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (AGIO) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $14.51. The Quality of Company score is 6.8/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is AGIO overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $40.55, 4 of 12 active models suggest AGIO may be undervalued, while 8 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc.'s business model in Biotechnology.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.8 mean for AGIO?

Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc.'s QOC of 6.8/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on AGIO?

CirclFi analyzes AGIO with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is AGIO a value trap in 2026?

Agios Pharmaceuticals, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 22/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

You’ve done the research. Don’t stop at half the picture.

Stop collecting opinions. Let 12 mathematical frameworks give you clarity on AGIO.

Unlock All 12 Fair Values — $39/mo

Cancel anytime · Less than a cup of coffee · Instant access