Nexa Resources S.A. (NEXA) Fair Value 2026

NEXA · Metal Mining ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.3 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (32/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, Nexa Resources S.A. (NEXA) trades at $13.80, approximately 16% below CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $16.44. QOC: 6.3/10. Value Trap Risk: 32/100 (LOW). 12/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
NEXA
Price
$13.80
Quality Score
6.3/10
Value Trap Risk
32/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +349.4% upside with 44% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (12/13) may reduce confidence

Valuation Matrix

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($13.80)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
 $16.44 +19.2%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
 $20.28 +47.0%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
 $20.66 +49.7%
First Chicago
Medium Conviction
 $62.02 +349.4%

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What Is Nexa Resources S.A. (NEXA) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, the weight of evidence tilts decidedly bullish for Nexa Resources S.A.. Trading at $13.80 against an estimated intrinsic value of $22.44, 9 of 12 active models flag meaningful upside of +62.6% on average. The most optimistic model, First Chicago, places fair value at $62.02 (+349.4%), while Markov DDM — the most conservative — estimates $1.36 (-90.2%). This +439.6% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Nexa Resources S.A.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About NEXA?

12 of 13 models are currently active for NEXA. Of these, 10 models suggest upside while 2 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates NEXA's intrinsic value at $16.44, implying +19.2% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does NEXA Rank in Metal Mining?

Among 38 Metal Mining stocks, NEXA ranks #7 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.3/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.3 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Metal Mining Stocks →

Nexa Resources S.A.'s positioning within the Metal Mining segment means that capacity utilization rate plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including automation and productivity gains — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is NEXA a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns NEXA a score of 32/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for Nexa Resources S.A.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Nexa Resources S.A. earns a quality score of 6.3/10. This respectable rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +439.6% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every NEXA valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across NEXA's 12 active models, average confidence is 36%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Nexa Resources S.A. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Metal Mining Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Metal Mining stocks with 13-model coverage

SCCOSouthern Copper CorporationQOC 10.0FCXFreeport-McMoRan, Inc.QOC 9.3EROEro Copper Corp.QOC 6.7CLFCleveland-Cliffs Inc.QOC 6.6MPMP Materials Corp.QOC 6.5IEIvanhoe Electric Inc.QOC 6.5WRNWestern Copper and Gold CorporaQOC 6.1USARUSA Rare Earth, Inc.QOC 5.8

Read investment analysis: SCCO · FCX · ERO · CLF · MP

See all Metal Mining stocks ranked →

Frequently Asked Questions About Nexa Resources S.A.

What is Nexa Resources S.A.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Nexa Resources S.A. (NEXA) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $16.44. The Quality of Company score is 6.3/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is NEXA overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $13.80, 10 of 12 active models suggest NEXA may be undervalued, while 2 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Nexa Resources S.A.'s business model in Metal Mining.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.3 mean for NEXA?

Nexa Resources S.A.'s QOC of 6.3/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on NEXA?

CirclFi analyzes NEXA with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is NEXA a value trap in 2026?

Nexa Resources S.A.'s Value Trap score is 32/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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