MP Materials Corp. (MP) Fair Value 2026

MP · Other Industrial Metals & Mining ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.4 /10

32 fundamental signals · 1 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (17/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, MP Materials Corp. (MP) trades at $59.03. QOC: 6.4/10. Value Trap Risk: 17/100 (SAFE). 1/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
MP
Price
$59.03
Quality Score
6.4/10
Value Trap Risk
17/100
Models Active
1/13
Last Updated
Strength: 1 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give MP?

1 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($59.03)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Relative · Medium Conviction
 $24.52 -58.5%

All Models Active

All 1 models are displayed above.

What Is MP Materials Corp. (MP) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, MP Materials Corp.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $24.52, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $59.03. With 1 out of 1 models flagging downside (-58.5% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth.

What Do the Models Say About MP?

1 of 13 models are currently active for MP. All 1 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does MP Rank in Other Industrial Metals & Mining?

Among 65 Other Industrial Metals & Mining stocks, MP ranks #5 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.4/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.4 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Other Industrial Metals & Mining Stocks →

As a manufacturing company, MP Materials Corp. operates in a sector where capacity utilization rate is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating MP should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is MP a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns MP a score of 17/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

1 of 13 models are active for MP Materials Corp.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, MP Materials Corp.'s fundamental quality profile registers 6.4/10. This respectable score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

CirclFi runs 13 independent models for each stock. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every MP valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across MP's 1 active models, average confidence is 44%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy MP Materials Corp. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Other Industrial Metals & Mining Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

10 related Other Industrial Metals & Mining stocks with 13-model coverage

ALOYREalloys Inc.QOC 6.4UAMYUnited States Antimony CorporationQOC 6.3NEXANexa Resources S.A.QOC 7.2CMPCompass Minerals International, Inc.QOC 6.1BHPBHP Group LimitedQOC 8.3WRNWestern Copper and Gold CorporationQOC 6.1WWRWestwater Resources, Inc.QOC 5.1ENRTEnertopia Corp.QOC 4.5BLTHAmerican Battery Materials, Inc.QOC 3.0MTRNMaterion CorporationQOC 8.9

Read investment analysis: ALOY · UAMY · NEXA · CMP · BHP · WRN · WWR · ENRT · BLTH · MTRN

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to MP?

7 companies across all industries closest to MP’s Quality of Company score of 6.4/10.

CNKCinemark Holdings, Inc.QOC 6.4ONITOnity Group Inc.QOC 6.4RAREUltragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc.QOC 6.4DLTHDuluth Holdings Inc.QOC 6.4SGRYSurgery Partners, Inc.QOC 6.4PEWGrabAGun Digital Holdings Inc.QOC 6.4NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: CNK · ONIT · RARE · DLTH · SGRY · PEW · NVDA

Where Does MP Sit in CirclFi's Other Industrial Metals & Mining Rankings?

MP is ranked against every other Other Industrial Metals & Mining stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Other Industrial Metals & Mining stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About MP Materials Corp.’s Valuation?

What is MP Materials Corp.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi does not yet have enough active models to publish a median fair value for MP Materials Corp. (MP). The Quality of Company score is 6.4/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is MP overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $59.03, 0 of 1 active models suggest MP may be undervalued, while 1 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits MP Materials Corp.'s business model in Other Industrial Metals & Mining.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.4 mean for MP?

MP Materials Corp.'s QOC of 6.4/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on MP?

CirclFi analyzes MP with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 1 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is MP a value trap in 2026?

MP Materials Corp.'s Value Trap score is 17/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “CirclFi assigns MP Materials Corp. (MP) a Quality of Company score of 6.4/10 across 32 fundamental signals as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/MP/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this MP valuation
  • Financial statements: MP Materials Corp. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001801368) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for MP as of ; valuations recomputed .