What Is BHP Group Limited (BHP) Worth in 2026?
According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, BHP Group Limited presents a highly debated valuation profile at its current price of $81.36. The composite intrinsic value is estimated at $90.13 (+10.8% average upside), masking a wide model spread between the 3 bullish models and 7 bearish models. Model dispersion is worth noting: Markov DDM targets $296.06 (+263.9%), versus Dynamic NAV at $9.93 (-87.8%). This +351.7% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.
What Do the Models Say About BHP?
13 of 13 models are currently active for BHP. Of these, 5 models suggest upside while 8 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates BHP's intrinsic value at $26.62, implying -67.3% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →
How Does BHP Rank in Metal Mining?
Among 38 Metal Mining stocks, BHP ranks #31 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 2.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 2.0 signals below-average fundamentals.
See all Most Undervalued Metal Mining Stocks →
BHP Group Limited's positioning within the Metal Mining segment means that working capital efficiency plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including infrastructure spending cycle — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.
Is BHP a Value Trap?
The Value Trap algorithm is not active for BHP. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →
Multi-Model Methodology
13 of 13 models are active for BHP Group Limited. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →
According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, BHP Group Limited scores 2.0 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a weak rating that exhibits fundamental weaknesses that warrant careful scrutiny. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.
The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +351.7% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →
Data Sources & Confidence
Every BHP valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →
Across BHP's 13 active models, average confidence is 7%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.
CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →
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