BHP Group Limited (BHP) Fair Value 2026

BHP · Other Industrial Metals & Mining ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.3 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (6/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, BHP Group Limited (BHP) trades at $96.37, versus a $63.11 median fair value across its 11 active models — 34.5% below the current price. QOC: 8.3/10. Value Trap Risk: 6/100 (SAFE). 11/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $49.02.

Key Facts

Ticker
BHP
Price
$96.37
Quality Score
8.3/10
Value Trap Risk
6/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +54.2% upside with 47% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is BHP Group Limited (BHP) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, BHP Group Limited (BHP) appears overvalued as of : the median of 11 independent fair value estimates is $63.11, 34.5% below the current price of $96.37. Estimates range from $23.61 to $148.64. BHP scores 8.3/10 on fundamental quality and 6/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. BHP’s -34.5% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Other Industrial Metals & Mining sector median is -45.9%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy BHP Group Limited Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give BHP?

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($96.37)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $49.02 -49.1%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $63.11 -34.5%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $59.31 -38.5%
Scenario · Medium Conviction
 $148.64 +54.2%
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What Is BHP's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 11 independent models · $23.61 to $148.64

CirclFi's 11 active models place BHP Group Limited (BHP) between $23.61 and $148.64 per share, a spread of 198% of the median. The median of that range — $63.11 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for BHP, against a current price of $96.37.

Low · Markov DDMHigh · First Chicago
$23.61median $63.11$148.64
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelMarkov DDM$23.61
Most bullish modelFirst Chicago$148.64
Model agreement1 bullish · 10 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for BHP. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on BHP, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is BHP Group Limited (BHP) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, BHP Group Limited's intrinsic value is estimated at $63.11. Trading at its current price of $96.37, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 10 of 11 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -34.5%. Model dispersion is worth noting: First Chicago targets $148.64 (+54.2%), versus Markov DDM at $23.61 (-75.5%). This +129.7% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About BHP?

11 of 13 models are currently active for BHP. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 10 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for BHP is $63.11 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $49.02 on its own, implying -49.1% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does BHP Rank in Other Industrial Metals & Mining?

Among 65 Other Industrial Metals & Mining stocks, BHP ranks #2 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.3/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.3 places BHP in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Other Industrial Metals & Mining Stocks →

BHP Group Limited's positioning within the Other Industrial Metals & Mining segment means that working capital efficiency plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including infrastructure spending cycle — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is BHP a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns BHP a score of 6/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for BHP Group Limited. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, BHP Group Limited scores 8.3 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +129.7% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every BHP valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across BHP's 11 active models, average confidence is 41%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy BHP Group Limited Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Other Industrial Metals & Mining Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Other Industrial Metals & Mining stocks with 13-model coverage

MTRNMaterion CorporationQOC 8.9NEXANexa Resources S.A.QOC 7.2CRMLCritical Metals Corp.QOC 2.0ALOYREalloys Inc.QOC 6.4LARLithium Argentina AGQOC 2.1MPMP Materials Corp.QOC 6.4NBNioCorp Developments Ltd.QOC 5.3FNUCFrontier Nuclear and Minerals Inc.QOC 4.7BMMBlue Moon Metals Inc.QOC 3.4

Read investment analysis: MTRN · NEXA · CRML · ALOY · LAR · MP · NB · FNUC · BMM

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to BHP?

7 companies across all industries closest to BHP’s Quality of Company score of 8.3/10.

DLXDeluxe CorporationQOC 8.3SONSonoco Products CompanyQOC 8.3KALUKaiser Aluminum CorporationQOC 8.3LZBLa-Z-Boy IncorporatedQOC 8.3RNGRRanger Energy Services, Inc.QOC 8.3WFCWells Fargo & CompanyQOC 8.3NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: DLX · SON · KALU · LZB · RNGR · WFC · NVDA

Where Does BHP Sit in CirclFi's Other Industrial Metals & Mining Rankings?

BHP is ranked against every other Other Industrial Metals & Mining stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Other Industrial Metals & Mining stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About BHP Group Limited’s Valuation?

What is BHP Group Limited's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts BHP Group Limited (BHP)'s intrinsic value at $63.11 — the median of 11 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $23.61 to $148.64. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $49.02 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.3/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is BHP overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $96.37, 1 of 11 active models suggest BHP may be undervalued, while 10 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 11 fair value estimates is $63.11, 34.5% below the current price of $96.37 — a consensus view that BHP is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits BHP Group Limited's business model in Other Industrial Metals & Mining.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.3 mean for BHP?

BHP Group Limited's QOC of 8.3/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on BHP?

CirclFi analyzes BHP with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on BHP?

Of the 11 models currently active on BHP, First Chicago is the most bullish at $148.64 per share, and Markov DDM is the most bearish at $23.61. CirclFi's published fair value for BHP is the median of that range, $63.11, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 198% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is BHP a value trap in 2026?

BHP Group Limited's Value Trap score is 6/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, BHP Group Limited (BHP) has a median fair value of $63.11 — 34.5% below the current price of $96.37 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/BHP/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this BHP valuation
  • Financial statements: BHP Group Limited 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000811809) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for BHP as of ; valuations recomputed .

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