Sonoco Products Company (SON) Fair Value 2026

SON · Packaging & Containers ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.3 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Sonoco Products Company (SON) trades at $56.71, versus a $96.26 median fair value across its 11 active models — 69.7% above the current price. QOC: 8.3/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 11/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $150.43.

Key Facts

Ticker
SON
Price
$56.71
Quality Score
8.3/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +165.3% upside with 69% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (11/13) may reduce confidence

Is Sonoco Products Company (SON) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Sonoco Products Company (SON) appears undervalued as of : the median of 11 independent fair value estimates is $96.26, 69.7% above the current price of $56.71. Estimates range from $7.08 to $154.32. SON scores 8.3/10 on fundamental quality and 12/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. SON’s +69.7% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Packaging & Containers sector median is -15.4%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Sonoco Products Company Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give SON?

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($56.71)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $150.43 +165.3%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $20.75 -63.4%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $86.20 +52.0%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $7.08 -87.5%
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What Is SON's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 11 independent models · $7.08 to $154.32

CirclFi's 11 active models place Sonoco Products Company (SON) between $7.08 and $154.32 per share, a spread of 153% of the median. The median of that range — $96.26 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for SON, against a current price of $56.71.

Low · EROICHigh · Regime Cross
$7.08median $96.26$154.32
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEROIC Spread$7.08
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$154.32
Model agreement8 bullish · 3 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for SON. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on SON, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Sonoco Products Company (SON) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, our multi-model framework produces a cautiously optimistic read on Sonoco Products Company at $56.71. With an estimated intrinsic value of $96.26 and 8 of 11 models pointing higher, the median implied return is +69.7%. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $154.32 (+172.1%), while EROIC — the most conservative — estimates $7.08 (-87.5%). This +259.6% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Sonoco Products Company's intrinsic worth. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About SON?

11 of 13 models are currently active for SON. Of these, 8 models suggest upside while 3 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for SON is $96.26 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $150.43 on its own, implying +165.3% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does SON Rank in Packaging & Containers?

Among 23 Packaging & Containers stocks, SON ranks #3 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.3/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.3 places SON in the top tier.

Sonoco Products Company operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is SON a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns SON a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for Sonoco Products Company. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Sonoco Products Company scores 8.3 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +259.6% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every SON valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across SON's 11 active models, average confidence is 52%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Sonoco Products Company Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Packaging & Containers Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Packaging & Containers stocks with 13-model coverage

PKGPackaging Corporation of AmericaQOC 8.5GEFGreif, Inc.QOC 8.3KRTKarat Packaging Inc.QOC 8.7GPKGraphic Packaging Holding CompanyQOC 8.2MGIHMillennium Group International Holdings LimitedQOC 2.8TRSTriMas CorporationQOC 8.0CCKCrown Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.9SLGNSilgan Holdings Inc.QOC 7.4ORBSEightco Holdings Inc.QOC 4.8

Read investment analysis: PKG · GEF · KRT · GPK · MGIH · TRS · CCK · SLGN · ORBS

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to SON?

7 companies across all industries closest to SON’s Quality of Company score of 8.3/10.

BHPBHP Group LimitedQOC 8.3LZBLa-Z-Boy IncorporatedQOC 8.3DLXDeluxe CorporationQOC 8.3WFCWells Fargo & CompanyQOC 8.3KALUKaiser Aluminum CorporationQOC 8.3LPGDorian LPG Ltd.QOC 8.3NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: BHP · LZB · DLX · WFC · KALU · LPG · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Sonoco Products Company’s Valuation?

What is Sonoco Products Company's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Sonoco Products Company (SON)'s intrinsic value at $96.26 — the median of 11 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $7.08 to $154.32. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $150.43 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.3/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is SON overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $56.71, 8 of 11 active models suggest SON may be undervalued, while 3 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 11 fair value estimates is $96.26, 69.7% above the current price of $56.71 — a consensus view that SON is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Sonoco Products Company's business model in Packaging & Containers.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.3 mean for SON?

Sonoco Products Company's QOC of 8.3/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on SON?

CirclFi analyzes SON with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on SON?

Of the 11 models currently active on SON, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $154.32 per share, and EROIC Spread is the most bearish at $7.08. CirclFi's published fair value for SON is the median of that range, $96.26, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 153% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is SON a value trap in 2026?

Sonoco Products Company's Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Sonoco Products Company (SON) has a median fair value of $96.26 — 69.7% above the current price of $56.71 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/SON/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this SON valuation
  • Financial statements: Sonoco Products Company 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000091767) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for SON as of ; valuations recomputed .

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