Sonoco Products Company (SON) Fair Value 2026

SON · Paperboard Containers & Boxes ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.3 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (24/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, Sonoco Products Company (SON) trades at $53.66, approximately 78% below CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $244.87. QOC: 6.3/10. Value Trap Risk: 24/100 (SAFE). 12/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
SON
Price
$53.66
Quality Score
6.3/10
Value Trap Risk
24/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +356.3% upside with 70% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (12/13) may reduce confidence

Valuation Matrix

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($53.66)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
$244.87 +356.3%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
$19.80 -63.1%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$121.29 +126.0%
First Chicago
High Conviction
$40.27 -24.9%

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What Is Sonoco Products Company (SON) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, our multi-model framework produces a cautiously optimistic read on Sonoco Products Company at $53.66. With an estimated intrinsic value of $118.60 and 8 of 12 models pointing higher, the average implied return is +121.0%. The most optimistic model, Bayesian DCF, places fair value at $244.87 (+356.3%), while Sentiment SOTP — the most conservative — estimates $1.94 (-96.4%). This +452.7% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Sonoco Products Company's intrinsic worth. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About SON?

12 of 13 models are currently active for SON. Of these, 8 models suggest upside while 4 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates SON's intrinsic value at $244.87, implying +356.3% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does SON Rank in Paperboard Containers & Boxes?

Among 5 Paperboard Containers & Boxes stocks, SON ranks #4 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.3/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.3 indicates above-average quality.

Sonoco Products Company operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is SON a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns SON a score of 24/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for Sonoco Products Company. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Sonoco Products Company scores 6.3 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a solid rating that maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +452.7% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every SON valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across SON's 12 active models, average confidence is 51%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Sonoco Products Company Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Paperboard Containers & Boxes Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

4 related Paperboard Containers & Boxes stocks with 13-model coverage

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Frequently Asked Questions About Sonoco Products Company

What is Sonoco Products Company's intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Sonoco Products Company (SON) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $244.87. The Quality of Company score is 6.3/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is SON overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $53.66, 8 of 12 active models suggest SON may be undervalued, while 4 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Sonoco Products Company's business model in Paperboard Containers & Boxes.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.3 mean for SON?

Sonoco Products Company's QOC of 6.3/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on SON?

CirclFi analyzes SON with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is SON a value trap in 2026?

Sonoco Products Company's Value Trap score is 24/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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