Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK) Fair Value 2026

GPK · Packaging & Containers ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.2 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (18/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK) trades at $11.33, versus a $25.87 median fair value across its 12 active models — 128.4% above the current price. QOC: 8.2/10. Value Trap Risk: 18/100 (SAFE). 12/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $56.32.

Key Facts

Ticker
GPK
Price
$11.33
Quality Score
8.2/10
Value Trap Risk
18/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +397.1% upside with 69% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (12/13) may reduce confidence

Is Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK) appears undervalued as of : the median of 12 independent fair value estimates is $25.87, 128.4% above the current price of $11.33. Estimates range from $3.36 to $58.50. GPK scores 8.2/10 on fundamental quality and 18/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. GPK’s +128.4% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Packaging & Containers sector median is -15.4%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Graphic Packaging Holding Company Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give GPK?

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($11.33)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $56.32 +397.1%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $12.32 +8.7%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $27.42 +142.0%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $12.11 +6.9%
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What Is GPK's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 12 independent models · $3.36 to $58.50

CirclFi's 12 active models place Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK) between $3.36 and $58.50 per share, a spread of 213% of the median. The median of that range — $25.87 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for GPK, against a current price of $11.33.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · RCMH-DCF
$3.36median $25.87$58.50
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$3.36
Most bullish modelRCMH-DCF$58.50
Model agreement9 bullish · 2 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for GPK. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on GPK, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Graphic Packaging Holding Company's intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $25.87. At a current market price of $11.33, 9 of 12 active valuation models identify upside potential, projecting a median implied return of +128.4%. Notably, RCMH-DCF sees the most upside at +416.3% (fair value: $58.50), while ML-RIV is the most conservative at -70.3% ($3.36). The spread between these extremes — +486.6% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About GPK?

12 of 13 models are currently active for GPK. Of these, 10 models suggest upside while 2 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for GPK is $25.87 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $56.32 on its own, implying +397.1% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does GPK Rank in Packaging & Containers?

Among 23 Packaging & Containers stocks, GPK ranks #5 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.2/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.2 places GPK in the top tier.

Graphic Packaging Holding Company operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is GPK a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns GPK a score of 18/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for Graphic Packaging Holding Company. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Graphic Packaging Holding Company scores 8.2 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +486.6% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every GPK valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across GPK's 12 active models, average confidence is 49%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Graphic Packaging Holding Company Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Packaging & Containers Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

10 related Packaging & Containers stocks with 13-model coverage

GEFGreif, Inc.QOC 8.3TRSTriMas CorporationQOC 8.0SONSonoco Products CompanyQOC 8.3BALLBall CorporationQOC 7.9PKGPackaging Corporation of AmericaQOC 8.5CCKCrown Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.9SWSmurfit Westrock PlcQOC 7.8PACKRanpak Holdings Corp.QOC 6.7DSSDSS, Inc.QOC 4.2KRTKarat Packaging Inc.QOC 8.7

Read investment analysis: GEF · TRS · SON · BALL · PKG · CCK · SW · PACK · DSS · KRT

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to GPK?

7 companies across all industries closest to GPK’s Quality of Company score of 8.2/10.

CNXNPC Connection, Inc.QOC 8.2PSIXPower Solutions International, Inc.QOC 8.2HSYThe Hershey CompanyQOC 8.2TMPTompkins Financial CorporationQOC 8.2ARLPAlliance Resource Partners, L.P.QOC 8.2ADAMAdamas Trust, Inc.QOC 8.2NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: CNXN · PSIX · HSY · TMP · ARLP · ADAM · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Graphic Packaging Holding Company’s Valuation?

What is Graphic Packaging Holding Company's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK)'s intrinsic value at $25.87 — the median of 12 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $3.36 to $58.50. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $56.32 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.2/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is GPK overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $11.33, 10 of 12 active models suggest GPK may be undervalued, while 2 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 12 fair value estimates is $25.87, 128.4% above the current price of $11.33 — a consensus view that GPK is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Graphic Packaging Holding Company's business model in Packaging & Containers.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.2 mean for GPK?

Graphic Packaging Holding Company's QOC of 8.2/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on GPK?

CirclFi analyzes GPK with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on GPK?

Of the 12 models currently active on GPK, RCMH-DCF is the most bullish at $58.50 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $3.36. CirclFi's published fair value for GPK is the median of that range, $25.87, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 213% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is GPK a value trap in 2026?

Graphic Packaging Holding Company's Value Trap score is 18/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 12-model valuation engine, Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK) has a median fair value of $25.87 — 128.4% above the current price of $11.33 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/GPK/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this GPK valuation
  • Financial statements: Graphic Packaging Holding Company 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001408075) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for GPK as of ; valuations recomputed .

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