Utz Brands, Inc. (UTZ) Fair Value 2026

UTZ · Packaged Foods ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.4 /10

32 fundamental signals · 5 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (15/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Utz Brands, Inc. (UTZ) trades at $14.20, versus a $8.25 median fair value across its 5 active models — 41.9% below the current price. QOC: 6.4/10. Value Trap Risk: 15/100 (SAFE). 5/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
UTZ
Price
$14.20
Quality Score
6.4/10
Value Trap Risk
15/100
Models Active
5/13
Last Updated
Strength: 5 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Utz Brands, Inc. (UTZ) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, Utz Brands, Inc. (UTZ) appears overvalued as of : the median of 5 independent fair value estimates is $8.25, 41.9% below the current price of $14.20. Estimates range from $4.76 to $14.38. UTZ scores 6.4/10 on fundamental quality and 15/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. UTZ’s -41.9% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Packaged Foods sector median is -16.7%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Utz Brands, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give UTZ?

5 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($14.20)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $8.25 -41.9%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $4.76 -66.5%
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What Is UTZ's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 5 independent models · $4.76 to $14.38

CirclFi's 5 active models place Utz Brands, Inc. (UTZ) between $4.76 and $14.38 per share, a spread of 117% of the median. The median of that range — $8.25 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for UTZ, against a current price of $14.20.

Low · Markov DDMHigh · Regime Cross
$4.76median $8.25$14.38
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelMarkov DDM$4.76
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$14.38
Model agreement0 bullish · 4 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for UTZ. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on UTZ, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Utz Brands, Inc. (UTZ) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Utz Brands, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $8.25, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $14.20. With 4 out of 5 models flagging downside (-41.9% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. Notably, Regime Cross sees the most upside at +1.2% (fair value: $14.38), while Markov DDM is the most conservative at -66.5% ($4.76). The spread between these extremes — +67.7% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About UTZ?

5 of 13 models are currently active for UTZ. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 4 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for UTZ is $8.25 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does UTZ Rank in Packaged Foods?

Among 84 Packaged Foods stocks, UTZ ranks #35 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.4/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.4 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Packaged Foods Stocks →

Within the Packaged Foods space, Utz Brands, Inc. competes in an environment where brand equity index often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is UTZ a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns UTZ a score of 15/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

5 of 13 models are active for Utz Brands, Inc.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Utz Brands, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 6.4/10. This respectable score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +67.7% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every UTZ valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across UTZ's 5 active models, average confidence is 36%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Utz Brands, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Packaged Foods Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Packaged Foods stocks with 13-model coverage

NAIINatural Alternatives International, Inc.QOC 6.5BRIDBridgford Foods CorporationQOC 6.4LSFLaird Superfood, Inc.QOC 6.9CAGConagra Brands, Inc.QOC 6.4KHCThe Kraft Heinz CompanyQOC 6.9SJMThe J. M. Smucker CompanyQOC 6.4COOTAustralian Oilseeds Holdings LimitedQOC 5.4GLUCGlucose Health, Inc.QOC 3.7NATRNature's Sunshine Products, Inc.QOC 8.2PPCPilgrim's Pride CorporationQOC 9.0JJSFJ&J Snack Foods Corp.QOC 8.9

Read investment analysis: NAII · BRID · LSF · CAG · KHC · SJM · COOT · GLUC · NATR · PPC · JJSF

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to UTZ?

6 companies across all industries closest to UTZ’s Quality of Company score of 6.4/10.

DMRCDigimarc CorporationQOC 6.4VTRVentas, Inc.QOC 6.4TDUPThredUp Inc.QOC 6.4PFXPhenixFIN CorporationQOC 6.4BIOXBioceres Crop Solutions Corp.QOC 6.4NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: DMRC · VTR · TDUP · PFX · BIOX · NVDA

Where Does UTZ Sit in CirclFi's Packaged Foods Rankings?

UTZ is ranked against every other Packaged Foods stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Packaged Foods stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Utz Brands, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Utz Brands, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Utz Brands, Inc. (UTZ)'s intrinsic value at $8.25 — the median of 5 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $4.76 to $14.38. The Quality of Company score is 6.4/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is UTZ overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $14.20, 1 of 5 active models suggest UTZ may be undervalued, while 4 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 5 fair value estimates is $8.25, 41.9% below the current price of $14.20 — a consensus view that UTZ is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Utz Brands, Inc.'s business model in Packaged Foods.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.4 mean for UTZ?

Utz Brands, Inc.'s QOC of 6.4/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on UTZ?

CirclFi analyzes UTZ with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 5 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on UTZ?

Of the 5 models currently active on UTZ, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $14.38 per share, and Markov DDM is the most bearish at $4.76. CirclFi's published fair value for UTZ is the median of that range, $8.25, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 117% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is UTZ a value trap in 2026?

Utz Brands, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 15/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, Utz Brands, Inc. (UTZ) has a median fair value of $8.25 — 41.9% below the current price of $14.20 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/UTZ/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this UTZ valuation
  • Financial statements: Utz Brands, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001739566) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for UTZ as of ; valuations recomputed .

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