The J. M. Smucker Company (SJM) Fair Value 2026

SJM · Packaged Foods ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.4 /10

32 fundamental signals · 9 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-10-07, The J. M. Smucker Company (SJM) trades at $116.80, versus a $94.62 median fair value across its 9 active models — 19.0% below the current price. QOC: 6.4/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 9/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $335.80.

Key Facts

Ticker
SJM
Price
$116.80
Quality Score
6.4/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
9/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +187.5% upside with 77% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is The J. M. Smucker Company (SJM) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, The J. M. Smucker Company (SJM) appears overvalued as of : the median of 9 independent fair value estimates is $94.62, 19.0% below the current price of $116.80. Estimates range from $36.82 to $335.80. SJM scores 6.4/10 on fundamental quality and 12/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -20.1% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,777 rated companies as of 2026-10-07. SJM’s -19.0% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Packaged Foods sector median is -11.1%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy The J. M. Smucker Company Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give SJM?

9 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($116.80)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $335.80 +187.5%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $53.74 -54.0%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $102.33 -12.4%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $72.59 -37.9%
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What Is SJM's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 9 independent models · $36.82 to $335.80

CirclFi's 9 active models place The J. M. Smucker Company (SJM) between $36.82 and $335.80 per share, a spread of 316% of the median. The median of that range — $94.62 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for SJM, against a current price of $116.80.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · Bayesian DCF
$36.82median $94.62$335.80
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$36.82
Most bullish modelBayesian DCF$335.80
Model agreement2 bullish · 7 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for SJM. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on SJM, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is The J. M. Smucker Company (SJM) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, The J. M. Smucker Company's intrinsic value is estimated at $94.62. Trading at its current price of $116.80, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 7 of 9 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -19.0%. The most optimistic model, Bayesian DCF, places fair value at $335.80 (+187.5%), while ML-RIV — the most conservative — estimates $36.82 (-68.5%). This +256.0% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about The J. M. Smucker Company's intrinsic worth. Among models with highest confidence, Bayesian DCF, EPV, EROIC lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About SJM?

9 of 13 models are currently active for SJM. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 7 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for SJM is $94.62 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $335.80 on its own, implying +187.5% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does SJM Rank in Packaged Foods?

Among 85 Packaged Foods stocks, SJM ranks #37 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.4/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.4 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Packaged Foods Stocks →

The J. M. Smucker Company's positioning within the Packaged Foods segment means that same-store sales growth (comps) plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including brand loyalty and pricing power — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is SJM a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns SJM a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

9 of 13 models are active for The J. M. Smucker Company. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, The J. M. Smucker Company scores 6.4 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a solid rating that maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +256.0% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every SJM valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across SJM's 9 active models, average confidence is 54%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy The J. M. Smucker Company Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Packaged Foods Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Packaged Foods stocks with 13-model coverage

UTZUtz Brands, Inc.QOC 6.4NCRANocera, Inc.QOC 6.3BRIDBridgford Foods CorporationQOC 6.4CAGConagra Brands, Inc.QOC 6.3INBPIntegrated BioPharma, Inc.QOC 6.6NAIINatural Alternatives International, Inc.QOC 6.3HRGNHarvard Apparatus Regenerative Technology Inc.QOC 5.3BSFCBlue Star Foods Corp.QOC 3.4NATRNature's Sunshine Products, Inc.QOC 8.2PPCPilgrim's Pride CorporationQOC 9.0JJSFJ&J Snack Foods Corp.QOC 8.9

Read investment analysis: UTZ · NCRA · BRID · CAG · INBP · NAII · HRGN · BSFC · NATR · PPC · JJSF

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to SJM?

7 companies across all industries closest to SJM’s Quality of Company score of 6.4/10.

PRAAPRA Group, Inc.QOC 6.4ECORelectroCore, Inc.QOC 6.4GSBDGoldman Sachs BDC, Inc.QOC 6.4BHRBraemar Hotels & Resorts Inc.QOC 6.4MANManpowerGroup Inc.QOC 6.4MNOVMediciNova, Inc.QOC 6.4NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: PRAA · ECOR · GSBD · BHR · MAN · MNOV · NVDA

Where Does SJM Sit in CirclFi's Packaged Foods Rankings?

SJM is ranked against every other Packaged Foods stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Packaged Foods stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About The J. M. Smucker Company’s Valuation?

What is The J. M. Smucker Company's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts The J. M. Smucker Company (SJM)'s intrinsic value at $94.62 — the median of 9 independent model estimates as of 2026-10-07, ranging from $36.82 to $335.80. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $335.80 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 6.4/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is SJM overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $116.80, 2 of 9 active models suggest SJM may be undervalued, while 7 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 9 fair value estimates is $94.62, 19.0% below the current price of $116.80 — a consensus view that SJM is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits The J. M. Smucker Company's business model in Packaged Foods.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.4 mean for SJM?

The J. M. Smucker Company's QOC of 6.4/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on SJM?

CirclFi analyzes SJM with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 9 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on SJM?

Of the 9 models currently active on SJM, Bayesian DCF is the most bullish at $335.80 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $36.82. CirclFi's published fair value for SJM is the median of that range, $94.62, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 316% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is SJM a value trap in 2026?

The J. M. Smucker Company's Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, The J. M. Smucker Company (SJM) has a median fair value of $94.62 — 19.0% below the current price of $116.80 — as of 2026-10-07.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/SJM/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this SJM valuation
  • Financial statements: The J. M. Smucker Company 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000091419) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for SJM as of ; valuations recomputed .

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