Goldman Sachs BDC, Inc. (GSBD) Fair Value 2026

GSBD · Asset Management ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.4 /10

32 fundamental signals · 8 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (13/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Goldman Sachs BDC, Inc. (GSBD) trades at $10.13, versus a $14.45 median fair value across its 8 active models — 42.6% above the current price. QOC: 6.4/10. Value Trap Risk: 13/100 (SAFE). 8/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $21.17.

Key Facts

Ticker
GSBD
Price
$10.13
Quality Score
6.4/10
Value Trap Risk
13/100
Models Active
8/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +109.0% upside with 29% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (8/13) may reduce confidence

Is Goldman Sachs BDC, Inc. (GSBD) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, Goldman Sachs BDC, Inc. (GSBD) appears undervalued as of : the median of 8 independent fair value estimates is $14.45, 42.6% above the current price of $10.13. Estimates range from $4.66 to $32.46. GSBD scores 6.4/10 on fundamental quality and 13/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. GSBD’s +42.6% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Asset Management sector median is -4.4%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Goldman Sachs BDC, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give GSBD?

8 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($10.13)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $21.17 +109.0%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $15.08 +48.8%
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $13.82 +36.4%
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $7.73 -23.7%
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What Is GSBD's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 8 independent models · $4.66 to $32.46

CirclFi's 8 active models place Goldman Sachs BDC, Inc. (GSBD) between $4.66 and $32.46 per share, a spread of 192% of the median. The median of that range — $14.45 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for GSBD, against a current price of $10.13.

Low · EROICHigh · RCMH-DCF
$4.66median $14.45$32.46
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEROIC Spread$4.66
Most bullish modelRCMH-DCF$32.46
Model agreement5 bullish · 3 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for GSBD. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on GSBD, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Goldman Sachs BDC, Inc. (GSBD) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, our multi-model framework produces a cautiously optimistic read on Goldman Sachs BDC, Inc. at $10.13. With an estimated intrinsic value of $14.45 and 5 of 8 models pointing higher, the median implied return is +42.6%. The most optimistic model, RCMH-DCF, places fair value at $32.46 (+220.4%), while EROIC — the most conservative — estimates $4.66 (-54.0%). This +274.4% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Goldman Sachs BDC, Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About GSBD?

8 of 13 models are currently active for GSBD. Of these, 5 models suggest upside while 3 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for GSBD is $14.45 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $21.17 on its own, implying +109.0% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does GSBD Rank in Asset Management?

Among 187 Asset Management stocks, GSBD ranks #65 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.4/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.4 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Asset Management Stocks →

Goldman Sachs BDC, Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is GSBD a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns GSBD a score of 13/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

8 of 13 models are active for Goldman Sachs BDC, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Goldman Sachs BDC, Inc. scores 6.4 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a solid rating that maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +274.4% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every GSBD valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across GSBD's 8 active models, average confidence is 21%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Goldman Sachs BDC, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Asset Management Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Asset Management stocks with 13-model coverage

PNNTPennantPark Investment CorporationQOC 6.4GBDCGolub Capital BDC, Inc.QOC 6.3MGLDThe Marygold Companies, Inc.QOC 6.4MAASMaase Inc.QOC 6.2CRBGCorebridge Financial, Inc.QOC 6.4SARSaratoga Investment Corp.QOC 6.2TCPCBlackRock TCP Capital Corp.QOC 5.0BTZBlackRock Credit Allocation Income TrustQOC 3.7NOAHNoah Holdings LimitedQOC 8.0HLNEHamilton Lane IncorporatedQOC 9.3AMPAmeriprise Financial, Inc.QOC 9.3

Read investment analysis: PNNT · GBDC · MGLD · MAAS · CRBG · SAR · TCPC · BTZ · NOAH · HLNE · AMP

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to GSBD?

7 companies across all industries closest to GSBD’s Quality of Company score of 6.4/10.

XNCRXencor, Inc.QOC 6.4BBIOBridgeBio Pharma, Inc.QOC 6.4BHRBraemar Hotels & Resorts Inc.QOC 6.4AREAlexandria Real Estate Equities, Inc.QOC 6.4TRAWTraws Pharma, Inc.QOC 6.4PRAAPRA Group, Inc.QOC 6.4NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: XNCR · BBIO · BHR · ARE · TRAW · PRAA · NVDA

Where Does GSBD Sit in CirclFi's Asset Management Rankings?

GSBD is ranked against every other Asset Management stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Asset Management stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Goldman Sachs BDC, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Goldman Sachs BDC, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Goldman Sachs BDC, Inc. (GSBD)'s intrinsic value at $14.45 — the median of 8 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $4.66 to $32.46. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $21.17 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 6.4/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is GSBD overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $10.13, 5 of 8 active models suggest GSBD may be undervalued, while 3 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 8 fair value estimates is $14.45, 42.6% above the current price of $10.13 — a consensus view that GSBD is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Goldman Sachs BDC, Inc.'s business model in Asset Management.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.4 mean for GSBD?

Goldman Sachs BDC, Inc.'s QOC of 6.4/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on GSBD?

CirclFi analyzes GSBD with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 8 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on GSBD?

Of the 8 models currently active on GSBD, RCMH-DCF is the most bullish at $32.46 per share, and EROIC Spread is the most bearish at $4.66. CirclFi's published fair value for GSBD is the median of that range, $14.45, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 192% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is GSBD a value trap in 2026?

Goldman Sachs BDC, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 13/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, Goldman Sachs BDC, Inc. (GSBD) has a median fair value of $14.45 — 42.6% above the current price of $10.13 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/GSBD/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this GSBD valuation
  • Financial statements: Goldman Sachs BDC, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001572694) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for GSBD as of ; valuations recomputed .

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