Hercules Capital, Inc. (HTGC) Fair Value 2026

HTGC · Asset Management ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.3 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

WARN (55/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Hercules Capital, Inc. (HTGC) trades at $17.48, versus a $19.67 median fair value across its 11 active models — 12.5% above the current price. QOC: 7.3/10. Value Trap Risk: 55/100 (WARN). 11/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
HTGC
Price
$17.48
Quality Score
7.3/10
Value Trap Risk
55/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +53.5% upside with 52% confidence
Risk: Value Trap score of 55 suggests caution despite apparent undervaluation

Is Hercules Capital, Inc. (HTGC) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Hercules Capital, Inc. (HTGC) appears undervalued as of : the median of 11 independent fair value estimates is $19.67, 12.5% above the current price of $17.48. Estimates range from $10.16 to $26.83. HTGC scores 7.3/10 on fundamental quality and 55/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. HTGC’s +12.5% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Asset Management sector median is -4.4%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Hercules Capital, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give HTGC?

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($17.48)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $10.16 -41.9%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $17.15 -1.9%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $26.83 +53.5%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $21.93 +25.4%
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What Is HTGC's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 11 independent models · $10.16 to $26.83

CirclFi's 11 active models place Hercules Capital, Inc. (HTGC) between $10.16 and $26.83 per share, a spread of 85% of the median. The median of that range — $19.67 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for HTGC, against a current price of $17.48.

Low · EPVHigh · First Chicago
$10.16median $19.67$26.83
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEarnings Power Value (EPV)$10.16
Most bullish modelFirst Chicago$26.83
Model agreement6 bullish · 4 bearishmoderate

A band of this width is typical. The methods agree on direction but weight growth, reinvestment and risk differently, so treat the median as a centre of gravity rather than a precise target.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on HTGC, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Hercules Capital, Inc. (HTGC) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Hercules Capital, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median $19.67, showing conflicting signals at the current price of $17.48. While the median implied return is +12.5%, model disagreement is elevated with a gap of +95.4% between the most bullish and bearish estimates. The most optimistic model, First Chicago, places fair value at $26.83 (+53.5%), while EPV — the most conservative — estimates $10.16 (-41.9%). This +95.4% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Hercules Capital, Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About HTGC?

11 of 13 models are currently active for HTGC. Of these, 6 models suggest upside while 5 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for HTGC is $19.67 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does HTGC Rank in Asset Management?

Among 187 Asset Management stocks, HTGC ranks #39 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.3/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.3 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Asset Management Stocks →

Hercules Capital, Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is HTGC a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns HTGC a score of 55/100 (WARN). This is a warning signal. Additional research into recent 10-Q filings is recommended. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for Hercules Capital, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Hercules Capital, Inc. earns a quality score of 7.3/10. This respectable rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency. Our Value Trap detector shows moderate caution signals worth monitoring.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +95.4% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every HTGC valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across HTGC's 11 active models, average confidence is 40%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Hercules Capital, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Asset Management Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Asset Management stocks with 13-model coverage

BMNMBimini Capital Management, Inc.QOC 7.3DBRGDigitalBridge Group, Inc.QOC 7.3PSECProspect Capital CorporationQOC 7.3TIPTTiptree Inc.QOC 7.2BNBrookfield CorporationQOC 7.3KKRKKR & Co. Inc.QOC 7.1EARNEllington Credit CompanyQOC 5.8OXSQOxford Square Capital Corp.QOC 4.8ECATBlackRock ESG Capital Allocation Term TrustQOC 2.2HLNEHamilton Lane IncorporatedQOC 9.3AMPAmeriprise Financial, Inc.QOC 9.3

Read investment analysis: BMNM · DBRG · PSEC · TIPT · BN · KKR · EARN · OXSQ · ECAT · HLNE · AMP

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to HTGC?

6 companies across all industries closest to HTGC’s Quality of Company score of 7.3/10.

SNOWSnowflake Inc.QOC 7.3BMRCBank of Marin BancorpQOC 7.3RFILRF Industries, Ltd.QOC 7.3FBINFortune Brands Innovations, Inc.QOC 7.3MRCYMercury Systems, Inc.QOC 7.2NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: SNOW · BMRC · RFIL · FBIN · MRCY · NVDA

Where Does HTGC Sit in CirclFi's Asset Management Rankings?

HTGC is ranked against every other Asset Management stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Asset Management stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Hercules Capital, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Hercules Capital, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Hercules Capital, Inc. (HTGC)'s intrinsic value at $19.67 — the median of 11 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $10.16 to $26.83. The Quality of Company score is 7.3/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is HTGC overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $17.48, 6 of 11 active models suggest HTGC may be undervalued, while 5 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 11 fair value estimates is $19.67, 12.5% above the current price of $17.48 — a consensus view that HTGC is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Hercules Capital, Inc.'s business model in Asset Management.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.3 mean for HTGC?

Hercules Capital, Inc.'s QOC of 7.3/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on HTGC?

CirclFi analyzes HTGC with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on HTGC?

Of the 11 models currently active on HTGC, First Chicago is the most bullish at $26.83 per share, and Earnings Power Value (EPV) is the most bearish at $10.16. CirclFi's published fair value for HTGC is the median of that range, $19.67, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 85% of the median — a normal spread for a company of this profile. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is HTGC a value trap in 2026?

Hercules Capital, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 55/100 (WARN). This elevated score suggests the stock may look undervalued but faces deteriorating fundamentals — declining margins, rising debt, or shrinking revenue could make the apparent discount deceptive. Browse our ranked stock lists to compare value-trap scores across industries.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Hercules Capital, Inc. (HTGC) has a median fair value of $19.67 — 12.5% above the current price of $17.48 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/HTGC/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this HTGC valuation
  • Financial statements: Hercules Capital, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001280784) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for HTGC as of ; valuations recomputed .

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