Hercules Capital, Inc. (HTGC) Fair Value 2026

HTGC · — ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (34/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-14, Hercules Capital, Inc. (HTGC) trades at $16.04, approximately 499% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $2.68. QOC: 7.6/10. Value Trap Risk: 34/100 (LOW). 12/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
HTGC
Price
$16.04
Quality Score
7.6/10
Value Trap Risk
34/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: 12 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Valuation Matrix

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($16.04)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
 $2.68 -83.3%
Earnings Power Value
Medium Conviction
 $0.85 -94.7%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
 $13.93 -13.2%
First Chicago
Medium Conviction
 $14.29 -10.9%

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What Is Hercules Capital, Inc. (HTGC) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Hercules Capital, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a composite fair value of $14.04. Trading at $16.04, the stock is approaching fair value or slight overvaluation (implied return of -12.5%), as 7 of 12 models suggest limited further upside. The most optimistic model, ML-RIV, places fair value at $43.82 (+173.2%), while EPV — the most conservative — estimates $0.85 (-94.7%). This +267.9% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Hercules Capital, Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About HTGC?

12 of 13 models are currently active for HTGC. Of these, 4 models suggest upside while 8 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates HTGC's intrinsic value at $2.68, implying -83.3% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does HTGC Rank in —?

HTGC operates in the — sector. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.6 indicates above-average quality.

Hercules Capital, Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is HTGC a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns HTGC a score of 34/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for Hercules Capital, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Hercules Capital, Inc. earns a quality score of 7.6/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +267.9% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every HTGC valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across HTGC's 12 active models, average confidence is 35%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Hercules Capital, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar — Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related — stocks with 13-model coverage

PSECProspect Capital CorporationQOC 8.4SCMStellus Capital Investment CorpQOC 7.8FDUSFidus Investment CorporationQOC 7.6GLADGladstone Capital CorporationQOC 7.4TPVGTriplePoint Venture Growth BDC QOC 7.3OXSQOxford Square Capital Corp.QOC 7.2GBDCGolub Capital BDC, Inc.QOC 7.2BBDCBarings BDC, Inc.QOC 7.2

Read investment analysis: PSEC · SCM · FDUS · GLAD · TPVG

Frequently Asked Questions About Hercules Capital, Inc.

What is Hercules Capital, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Hercules Capital, Inc. (HTGC) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $2.68. The Quality of Company score is 7.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is HTGC overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $16.04, 4 of 12 active models suggest HTGC may be undervalued, while 8 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Hercules Capital, Inc.'s business model in —.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.6 mean for HTGC?

Hercules Capital, Inc.'s QOC of 7.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on HTGC?

CirclFi analyzes HTGC with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is HTGC a value trap in 2026?

Hercules Capital, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 34/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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