Tiptree Inc. (TIPT) Fair Value 2026

TIPT · Fire, Marine & Casualty Insurance ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.7 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (28/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, Tiptree Inc. (TIPT) trades at $18.05. QOC: 8.7/10. Value Trap Risk: 28/100 (LOW). 11/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
TIPT
Price
$18.05
Quality Score
8.7/10
Value Trap Risk
28/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: CUCE Ensemble suggests +22.9% upside with 3% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Valuation Matrix

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($18.05)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
$1.79 -90.1%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$22.19 +22.9%
First Chicago
High Conviction
$5.32 -70.5%
Markov DDM
High Conviction
$1.88 -89.6%

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What Is Tiptree Inc. (TIPT) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Tiptree Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a composite $17.80, showing conflicting signals at the current price of $18.05. While the average implied return is -1.4%, model disagreement is elevated with a gap of +358.4% between the most bullish and bearish estimates. The most optimistic model, RCMH-DCF, places fair value at $66.49 (+268.4%), while EPV — the most conservative — estimates $1.79 (-90.1%). This +358.4% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Tiptree Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About TIPT?

11 of 13 models are currently active for TIPT. Of these, 5 models suggest upside while 6 models suggest overvaluation. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does TIPT Rank in Fire, Marine & Casualty Insurance?

Among 50 Fire, Marine & Casualty Insurance stocks, TIPT ranks #18 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.7/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.7 places TIPT in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Fire, Marine & Casualty Insurance Stocks →

Within the Fire, Marine & Casualty Insurance space, Tiptree Inc. competes in an environment where expense ratio often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is TIPT a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns TIPT a score of 28/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for Tiptree Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Tiptree Inc. is rated at 8.7/10. This strong-tier score demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +358.4% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every TIPT valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across TIPT's 11 active models, average confidence is 38%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Tiptree Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Fire, Marine & Casualty Insurance Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Fire, Marine & Casualty Insurance stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: HCI · KNSL · HG · SKWD · RNR

See all Fire, Marine & Casualty Insurance stocks ranked →

Frequently Asked Questions About Tiptree Inc.

What is Tiptree Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Tiptree Inc. (TIPT) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value. The Quality of Company score is 8.7/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is TIPT overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $18.05, 5 of 11 active models suggest TIPT may be undervalued, while 6 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Tiptree Inc.'s business model in Fire, Marine & Casualty Insurance.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.7 mean for TIPT?

Tiptree Inc.'s QOC of 8.7/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on TIPT?

CirclFi analyzes TIPT with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is TIPT a value trap in 2026?

Tiptree Inc.'s Value Trap score is 28/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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