Brilliant Earth Group, Inc. (BRLT) Fair Value 2026

BRLT · Luxury Goods ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.1 /10

32 fundamental signals · 7 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (19/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Brilliant Earth Group, Inc. (BRLT) trades at $1.33, versus a $1.19 median fair value across its 7 active models — 10.7% below the current price. QOC: 7.1/10. Value Trap Risk: 19/100 (SAFE). 7/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $0.63.

Key Facts

Ticker
BRLT
Price
$1.33
Quality Score
7.1/10
Value Trap Risk
19/100
Models Active
7/13
Last Updated
Strength: 7 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Brilliant Earth Group, Inc. (BRLT) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 7-model valuation engine, Brilliant Earth Group, Inc. (BRLT) appears overvalued as of : the median of 7 independent fair value estimates is $1.19, 10.7% below the current price of $1.33. Estimates range from $0.63 to $2.46. BRLT scores 7.1/10 on fundamental quality and 19/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. BRLT’s -10.7% gap is narrower than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Brilliant Earth Group, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give BRLT?

7 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($1.33)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $0.63 -52.6%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $1.19 -10.2%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $1.19 -10.7%
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What Is BRLT's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 7 independent models · $0.63 to $2.46

CirclFi's 7 active models place Brilliant Earth Group, Inc. (BRLT) between $0.63 and $2.46 per share, a spread of 154% of the median. The median of that range — $1.19 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for BRLT, against a current price of $1.33.

Low · Bayesian DCFHigh · FTNN
$0.63median $1.19$2.46
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelBayesian DCF$0.63
Most bullish modelFTNN Topology$2.46
Model agreement2 bullish · 5 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for BRLT. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on BRLT, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Brilliant Earth Group, Inc. (BRLT) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Brilliant Earth Group, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $1.19. Trading at $1.33, the stock is approaching fair value or slight overvaluation (implied return of -10.7%), as 5 of 7 models suggest limited further upside. Model dispersion is worth noting: FTNN targets $2.46 (+85.0%), versus Bayesian DCF at $0.63 (-52.6%). This +137.6% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About BRLT?

7 of 13 models are currently active for BRLT. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 5 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for BRLT is $1.19 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $0.63 on its own, implying -52.6% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does BRLT Rank in Luxury Goods?

Among 10 Luxury Goods stocks, BRLT ranks #6 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.1/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.1 indicates above-average quality.

Brilliant Earth Group, Inc.'s positioning within the Luxury Goods segment means that gross margin expansion plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including consumer spending resilience — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is BRLT a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns BRLT a score of 19/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

7 of 13 models are active for Brilliant Earth Group, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Brilliant Earth Group, Inc. earns a quality score of 7.1/10. This respectable rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +137.6% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every BRLT valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across BRLT's 7 active models, average confidence is 40%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Brilliant Earth Group, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Luxury Goods Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Luxury Goods stocks with 13-model coverage

TPRTapestry, Inc.QOC 9.0SIGSignet Jewelers LimitedQOC 8.6ELAEnvela CorporationQOC 8.2LUXELuxExperience B.V.QOC 8.0CPRICapri Holdings LimitedQOC 7.3REALThe RealReal, Inc.QOC 6.2BGIBirks Group Inc.QOC 5.7LANVLanvin Group Holdings LimitedQOC 4.7SORAAsiaStrategyQOC 3.2

Read investment analysis: TPR · SIG · ELA · LUXE · CPRI · REAL · BGI · LANV · SORA

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to BRLT?

7 companies across all industries closest to BRLT’s Quality of Company score of 7.1/10.

RBLXRoblox CorporationQOC 7.1LGLThe LGL Group, Inc.QOC 7.1GNWGenworth Financial, Inc.QOC 7.1PHGKoninklijke Philips N.V.QOC 7.1KNOPKNOT Offshore Partners LPQOC 7.1AMTMAmentum Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.1NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: RBLX · LGL · GNW · PHG · KNOP · AMTM · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About Brilliant Earth Group, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Brilliant Earth Group, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Brilliant Earth Group, Inc. (BRLT)'s intrinsic value at $1.19 — the median of 7 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $0.63 to $2.46. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $0.63 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 7.1/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is BRLT overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $1.33, 2 of 7 active models suggest BRLT may be undervalued, while 5 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 7 fair value estimates is $1.19, 10.7% below the current price of $1.33 — a consensus view that BRLT is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Brilliant Earth Group, Inc.'s business model in Luxury Goods.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.1 mean for BRLT?

Brilliant Earth Group, Inc.'s QOC of 7.1/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on BRLT?

CirclFi analyzes BRLT with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 7 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on BRLT?

Of the 7 models currently active on BRLT, FTNN Topology is the most bullish at $2.46 per share, and Bayesian DCF is the most bearish at $0.63. CirclFi's published fair value for BRLT is the median of that range, $1.19, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 154% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is BRLT a value trap in 2026?

Brilliant Earth Group, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 19/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 7-model valuation engine, Brilliant Earth Group, Inc. (BRLT) has a median fair value of $1.19 — 10.7% below the current price of $1.33 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/BRLT/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this BRLT valuation
  • Financial statements: Brilliant Earth Group, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001866757) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for BRLT as of ; valuations recomputed .

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