Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc. (CGBD) Fair Value 2026

CGBD · Asset Management ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

5.7 /10

32 fundamental signals · 6 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (0/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-10-07, Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc. (CGBD) trades at $10.50, versus a $10.28 median fair value across its 6 active models — 2.1% below the current price. QOC: 5.7/10. Value Trap Risk: 0/100 (SAFE). 6/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
CGBD
Price
$10.50
Quality Score
5.7/10
Value Trap Risk
0/100
Models Active
6/13
Last Updated
Strength: CUCE Ensemble suggests +5.4% upside with 4% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc. (CGBD) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc. (CGBD) appears fairly valued as of : the median of 6 independent fair value estimates is $10.28, within 2.1% of the current price of $10.50. Estimates range from $3.72 to $20.21. CGBD scores 5.7/10 on fundamental quality and 0/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -20.1% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,777 rated companies as of 2026-10-07. CGBD’s -2.1% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Asset Management sector median is +3.7%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give CGBD?

6 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($10.50)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $11.06 +5.4%
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $9.50 -9.5%
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $8.28 -21.2%
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What Is CGBD's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 6 independent models · $3.72 to $20.21

CirclFi's 6 active models place Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc. (CGBD) between $3.72 and $20.21 per share, a spread of 160% of the median. The median of that range — $10.28 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for CGBD, against a current price of $10.50.

Low · EROICHigh · Regime Cross
$3.72median $10.28$20.21
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEROIC Spread$3.72
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$20.21
Model agreement3 bullish · 3 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for CGBD. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on CGBD, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc. (CGBD) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc. presents a highly debated valuation profile at its current price of $10.50. The median intrinsic value is estimated at $10.28 (-2.1% median upside), masking a wide model spread between the 3 bullish models and 3 bearish models. Model dispersion is worth noting: Regime Cross targets $20.21 (+92.4%), versus EROIC at $3.72 (-64.5%). This +157.0% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About CGBD?

6 of 13 models are currently active for CGBD. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 3 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for CGBD is $10.28 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does CGBD Rank in Asset Management?

Among 187 Asset Management stocks, CGBD ranks #86 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 5.7/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 5.7 reflects mixed fundamentals.

See all Most Undervalued Asset Management Stocks →

Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is CGBD a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns CGBD a score of 0/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

6 of 13 models are active for Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc. scores 5.7 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a solid rating that maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +157.0% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every CGBD valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across CGBD's 6 active models, average confidence is 20%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Asset Management Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Asset Management stocks with 13-model coverage

MFICMidCap Financial Investment CorporationQOC 5.7CIONCION Investment CorporationQOC 5.6EARNEllington Credit CompanyQOC 5.8CCAPCrescent Capital BDC, Inc.QOC 5.6CSWCCapital Southwest CorporationQOC 5.8PIACPrinceton Capital CorporationQOC 5.5MCIBarings Corporate InvestorsQOC 4.8ECATBlackRock ESG Capital Allocation Term TrustQOC 2.2BMNMBimini Capital Management, Inc.QOC 7.3HLNEHamilton Lane IncorporatedQOC 9.3AMPAmeriprise Financial, Inc.QOC 9.3

Read investment analysis: MFIC · CION · EARN · CCAP · CSWC · PIAC · MCI · ECAT · BMNM · HLNE · AMP

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to CGBD?

7 companies across all industries closest to CGBD’s Quality of Company score of 5.7/10.

TLPHTalphera, Inc.QOC 5.7AUTLAutolus Therapeutics plcQOC 5.7PREPrenetics Global LimitedQOC 5.7USDWUSDWQOC 5.7FTREFortrea Holdings Inc.QOC 5.7SEATVivid Seats Inc.QOC 5.7NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: TLPH · AUTL · PRE · USDW · FTRE · SEAT · NVDA

Where Does CGBD Sit in CirclFi's Asset Management Rankings?

CGBD is ranked against every other Asset Management stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Asset Management stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc. (CGBD)'s intrinsic value at $10.28 — the median of 6 independent model estimates as of 2026-10-07, ranging from $3.72 to $20.21. The Quality of Company score is 5.7/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is CGBD overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $10.50, 3 of 6 active models suggest CGBD may be undervalued, while 3 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 6 fair value estimates is $10.28, within 2.1% of the current price of $10.50 — a consensus view that CGBD is fairly valued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc.'s business model in Asset Management.

What does a Quality of Company score of 5.7 mean for CGBD?

Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc.'s QOC of 5.7/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on CGBD?

CirclFi analyzes CGBD with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 6 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on CGBD?

Of the 6 models currently active on CGBD, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $20.21 per share, and EROIC Spread is the most bearish at $3.72. CirclFi's published fair value for CGBD is the median of that range, $10.28, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 160% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is CGBD a value trap in 2026?

Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 0/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc. (CGBD) has a median fair value of $10.28 — within 2.1% of the current price of $10.50 — as of 2026-10-07.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/CGBD/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this CGBD valuation
  • Financial statements: Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001544206) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for CGBD as of ; valuations recomputed .

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