Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc. (CGBD) Fair Value 2026

CGBD · — ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 9 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (6/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-15, Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc. (CGBD) trades at $10.60, approximately 127% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $4.67. QOC: 6.6/10. Value Trap Risk: 6/100 (SAFE). 9/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
CGBD
Price
$10.60
Quality Score
6.6/10
Value Trap Risk
6/100
Models Active
9/13
Last Updated
Strength: ML-RIV suggests +124.6% upside with 48% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (9/13) may reduce confidence

Is Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc. (CGBD) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc. (CGBD) appears undervalued as of : the median of 9 independent fair value estimates is $13.41, 26.5% above the current price of $10.60. Estimates range from $2.80 to $28.42. CGBD scores 6.6/10 on fundamental quality and 6/100 on value-trap risk.

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Valuation Matrix

9 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($10.60)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
 $4.67 -55.9%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
 $13.41 +26.5%
Markov DDM
Medium Conviction
 $15.80 +49.1%
ML-RIV
Medium Conviction
 $23.81 +124.6%

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What Is Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc. (CGBD) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $13.68, suggesting a +29.1% average upside from the current price of $10.60. While 6 models see room for appreciation, model agreement is not unanimous as 3 models flag potential overvaluation. Model dispersion is worth noting: RCMH-DCF targets $28.42 (+168.1%), versus EROIC at $2.80 (-73.6%). This +241.6% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About CGBD?

9 of 13 models are currently active for CGBD. Of these, 6 models suggest upside while 3 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates CGBD's intrinsic value at $4.67, implying -55.9% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does CGBD Rank in —?

CGBD operates in the — sector. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.6 indicates above-average quality.

Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is CGBD a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns CGBD a score of 6/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

9 of 13 models are active for Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc. scores 6.6 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a solid rating that maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +241.6% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every CGBD valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across CGBD's 9 active models, average confidence is 36%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar — Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related — stocks with 13-model coverage

PSECProspect Capital CorporationQOC 8.4SCMStellus Capital Investment CorpQOC 7.8FDUSFidus Investment CorporationQOC 7.6HTGCHercules Capital, Inc.QOC 7.6GLADGladstone Capital CorporationQOC 7.4TPVGTriplePoint Venture Growth BDC QOC 7.3OXSQOxford Square Capital Corp.QOC 7.2GBDCGolub Capital BDC, Inc.QOC 7.2

Read investment analysis: PSEC · SCM · FDUS · HTGC · GLAD

Frequently Asked Questions About Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc.

What is Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc. (CGBD) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $4.67. The Quality of Company score is 6.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is CGBD overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $10.60, 6 of 9 active models suggest CGBD may be undervalued, while 3 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 9 fair value estimates is $13.41, 26.5% above the current price of $10.60 — a consensus view that CGBD is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc.'s business model in —.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.6 mean for CGBD?

Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc.'s QOC of 6.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on CGBD?

CirclFi analyzes CGBD with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 9 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is CGBD a value trap in 2026?

Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 6/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc. (CGBD) has a median fair value of $13.41 — 26.5% above the current price of $10.60 — as of 2026-07-15.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/CGBD/ · Methodology

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