TriplePoint Venture Growth BDC (TPVG) Fair Value 2026

TPVG · — ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

7.3 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (6/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-14, TriplePoint Venture Growth BDC (TPVG) trades at $4.69. QOC: 7.3/10. Value Trap Risk: 6/100 (SAFE). 10/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
TPVG
Price
$4.69
Quality Score
7.3/10
Value Trap Risk
6/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: CUCE Ensemble suggests +385.6% upside with 2% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (10/13) may reduce confidence

Valuation Matrix

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($4.69)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Earnings Power Value
Medium Conviction
 $1.84 -60.8%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
 $22.78 +385.6%
First Chicago
Medium Conviction
 $4.43 -5.6%
Markov DDM
Medium Conviction
 $7.23 +54.1%

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What Is TriplePoint Venture Growth BDC (TPVG) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, our multi-model framework produces a cautiously optimistic read on TriplePoint Venture Growth BDC at $4.69. With an estimated intrinsic value of $8.49 and 6 of 10 models pointing higher, the average implied return is +81.0%. The most optimistic model, CUCE, places fair value at $22.78 (+385.6%), while EROIC — the most conservative — estimates $0.72 (-84.5%). This +470.2% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about TriplePoint Venture Growth BDC 's intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About TPVG?

10 of 13 models are currently active for TPVG. Of these, 6 models suggest upside while 4 models suggest overvaluation. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does TPVG Rank in —?

TPVG operates in the — sector. CirclFi's QOC score of 7.3/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 7.3 indicates above-average quality.

TriplePoint Venture Growth BDC operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is TPVG a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns TPVG a score of 6/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for TriplePoint Venture Growth BDC . Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, TriplePoint Venture Growth BDC is rated at 7.3/10. This solid-tier score maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +470.2% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every TPVG valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across TPVG's 10 active models, average confidence is 32%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy TriplePoint Venture Growth BDC Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar — Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related — stocks with 13-model coverage

PSECProspect Capital CorporationQOC 8.4SCMStellus Capital Investment CorpQOC 7.8FDUSFidus Investment CorporationQOC 7.6HTGCHercules Capital, Inc.QOC 7.6GLADGladstone Capital CorporationQOC 7.4OXSQOxford Square Capital Corp.QOC 7.2GBDCGolub Capital BDC, Inc.QOC 7.2BBDCBarings BDC, Inc.QOC 7.2

Read investment analysis: PSEC · SCM · FDUS · HTGC · GLAD

Frequently Asked Questions About TriplePoint Venture Growth BDC

What is TriplePoint Venture Growth BDC 's intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, TriplePoint Venture Growth BDC (TPVG) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value. The Quality of Company score is 7.3/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is TPVG overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $4.69, 6 of 10 active models suggest TPVG may be undervalued, while 4 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits TriplePoint Venture Growth BDC 's business model in —.

What does a Quality of Company score of 7.3 mean for TPVG?

TriplePoint Venture Growth BDC 's QOC of 7.3/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on TPVG?

CirclFi analyzes TPVG with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is TPVG a value trap in 2026?

TriplePoint Venture Growth BDC 's Value Trap score is 6/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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