Runway Growth Finance Corp. (RWAY) Fair Value 2026

RWAY · — ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.9 /10

32 fundamental signals · 12 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (30/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-14, Runway Growth Finance Corp. (RWAY) trades at $5.76, approximately 80% below CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $29.18. QOC: 6.9/10. Value Trap Risk: 30/100 (LOW). 12/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
RWAY
Price
$5.76
Quality Score
6.9/10
Value Trap Risk
30/100
Models Active
12/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +406.5% upside with 56% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (12/13) may reduce confidence

Valuation Matrix

12 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($5.76)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
 $29.18 +406.5%
Earnings Power Value
Medium Conviction
 $5.69 -1.2%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
 $17.33 +200.9%
First Chicago
Medium Conviction
 $15.51 +169.3%

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What Is Runway Growth Finance Corp. (RWAY) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Runway Growth Finance Corp. is potentially undervalued at its current price of $5.76. Based on our 13-model framework, Runway Growth Finance Corp.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a composite fair value of $13.83 — representing +140.2% implied upside — with 10 out of 12 active models confirming this thesis. Model dispersion is worth noting: Bayesian DCF targets $29.18 (+406.5%), versus Dynamic NAV at $0.28 (-95.2%). This +501.7% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About RWAY?

12 of 13 models are currently active for RWAY. Of these, 10 models suggest upside while 2 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates RWAY's intrinsic value at $29.18, implying +406.5% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does RWAY Rank in —?

RWAY operates in the — sector. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.9/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.9 indicates above-average quality.

Runway Growth Finance Corp. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is RWAY a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns RWAY a score of 30/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

12 of 13 models are active for Runway Growth Finance Corp.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Runway Growth Finance Corp. is rated at 6.9/10. This solid-tier score maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +501.7% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every RWAY valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across RWAY's 12 active models, average confidence is 38%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Runway Growth Finance Corp. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar — Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related — stocks with 13-model coverage

PSECProspect Capital CorporationQOC 8.4SCMStellus Capital Investment CorpQOC 7.8FDUSFidus Investment CorporationQOC 7.6HTGCHercules Capital, Inc.QOC 7.6GLADGladstone Capital CorporationQOC 7.4TPVGTriplePoint Venture Growth BDC QOC 7.3OXSQOxford Square Capital Corp.QOC 7.2GBDCGolub Capital BDC, Inc.QOC 7.2

Read investment analysis: PSEC · SCM · FDUS · HTGC · GLAD

Frequently Asked Questions About Runway Growth Finance Corp.

What is Runway Growth Finance Corp.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Runway Growth Finance Corp. (RWAY) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $29.18. The Quality of Company score is 6.9/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is RWAY overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $5.76, 10 of 12 active models suggest RWAY may be undervalued, while 2 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Runway Growth Finance Corp.'s business model in —.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.9 mean for RWAY?

Runway Growth Finance Corp.'s QOC of 6.9/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on RWAY?

CirclFi analyzes RWAY with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 12 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is RWAY a value trap in 2026?

Runway Growth Finance Corp.'s Value Trap score is 30/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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