Golub Capital BDC, Inc. (GBDC) Fair Value 2026

GBDC · Asset Management ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.3 /10

32 fundamental signals · 8 models active

Value Trap Risk

WARN (40/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-10-07, Golub Capital BDC, Inc. (GBDC) trades at $12.19, versus a $11.11 median fair value across its 8 active models — 8.8% below the current price. QOC: 6.3/10. Value Trap Risk: 40/100 (WARN). 8/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
GBDC
Price
$12.19
Quality Score
6.3/10
Value Trap Risk
40/100
Models Active
8/13
Last Updated
Strength: Markov DDM suggests +98.5% upside with 27% confidence
Risk: Value Trap score of 40 suggests caution despite apparent undervaluation

Is Golub Capital BDC, Inc. (GBDC) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, Golub Capital BDC, Inc. (GBDC) appears fairly valued as of : the median of 8 independent fair value estimates is $11.11, within 8.8% of the current price of $12.19. Estimates range from $2.74 to $24.20. GBDC scores 6.3/10 on fundamental quality and 40/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -20.1% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,777 rated companies as of 2026-10-07. GBDC’s -8.8% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Asset Management sector median is +3.7%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Golub Capital BDC, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give GBDC?

8 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($12.19)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $2.74 -77.5%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $10.98 -9.9%
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $24.20 +98.5%
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $11.25 -7.7%
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What Is GBDC's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 8 independent models · $2.74 to $24.20

CirclFi's 8 active models place Golub Capital BDC, Inc. (GBDC) between $2.74 and $24.20 per share, a spread of 193% of the median. The median of that range — $11.11 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for GBDC, against a current price of $12.19.

Low · EPVHigh · Markov DDM
$2.74median $11.11$24.20
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEarnings Power Value (EPV)$2.74
Most bullish modelMarkov DDM$24.20
Model agreement2 bullish · 5 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for GBDC. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on GBDC, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Golub Capital BDC, Inc. (GBDC) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Golub Capital BDC, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $11.11. Trading at $12.19, the stock is approaching fair value or slight overvaluation (implied return of -8.8%), as 5 of 8 models suggest limited further upside. Model dispersion is worth noting: Markov DDM targets $24.20 (+98.5%), versus EPV at $2.74 (-77.5%). This +176.0% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About GBDC?

8 of 13 models are currently active for GBDC. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 5 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for GBDC is $11.11 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does GBDC Rank in Asset Management?

Among 187 Asset Management stocks, GBDC ranks #65 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.3/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.3 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Asset Management Stocks →

Golub Capital BDC, Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is GBDC a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns GBDC a score of 40/100 (WARN). This is a warning signal. Additional research into recent 10-Q filings is recommended. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

8 of 13 models are active for Golub Capital BDC, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Golub Capital BDC, Inc. scores 6.3 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a solid rating that maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +176.0% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every GBDC valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across GBDC's 8 active models, average confidence is 21%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Golub Capital BDC, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Asset Management Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Asset Management stocks with 13-model coverage

GSBDGoldman Sachs BDC, Inc.QOC 6.4SARSaratoga Investment Corp.QOC 6.2CRBGCorebridge Financial, Inc.QOC 6.4WHFWhiteHorse Finance, Inc.QOC 6.2PNNTPennantPark Investment CorporationQOC 6.4EQHEquitable Holdings, Inc.QOC 6.2JHSJohn Hancock Income Securities TrustQOC 5.0EICEagle Point Income CompanyQOC 3.8NOAHNoah Holdings LimitedQOC 8.0HLNEHamilton Lane IncorporatedQOC 9.3AMPAmeriprise Financial, Inc.QOC 9.3

Read investment analysis: GSBD · SAR · CRBG · WHF · PNNT · EQH · JHS · EIC · NOAH · HLNE · AMP

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to GBDC?

7 companies across all industries closest to GBDC’s Quality of Company score of 6.3/10.

NNUPNocopi Technologies, Inc.QOC 6.3LGPSLogProstyle Inc.QOC 6.3CHRSCoherus Oncology, Inc.QOC 6.3ASTSAST SpaceMobile, Inc.QOC 6.3PLTKPlaytika Holding Corp.QOC 6.3ECVTEcovyst Inc.QOC 6.3NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: NNUP · LGPS · CHRS · ASTS · PLTK · ECVT · NVDA

Where Does GBDC Sit in CirclFi's Asset Management Rankings?

GBDC is ranked against every other Asset Management stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Asset Management stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Golub Capital BDC, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Golub Capital BDC, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Golub Capital BDC, Inc. (GBDC)'s intrinsic value at $11.11 — the median of 8 independent model estimates as of 2026-10-07, ranging from $2.74 to $24.20. The Quality of Company score is 6.3/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is GBDC overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $12.19, 3 of 8 active models suggest GBDC may be undervalued, while 5 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 8 fair value estimates is $11.11, within 8.8% of the current price of $12.19 — a consensus view that GBDC is fairly valued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Golub Capital BDC, Inc.'s business model in Asset Management.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.3 mean for GBDC?

Golub Capital BDC, Inc.'s QOC of 6.3/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on GBDC?

CirclFi analyzes GBDC with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 8 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on GBDC?

Of the 8 models currently active on GBDC, Markov DDM is the most bullish at $24.20 per share, and Earnings Power Value (EPV) is the most bearish at $2.74. CirclFi's published fair value for GBDC is the median of that range, $11.11, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 193% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is GBDC a value trap in 2026?

Golub Capital BDC, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 40/100 (WARN). This elevated score suggests the stock may look undervalued but faces deteriorating fundamentals — declining margins, rising debt, or shrinking revenue could make the apparent discount deceptive. Browse our ranked stock lists to compare value-trap scores across industries.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, Golub Capital BDC, Inc. (GBDC) has a median fair value of $11.11 — within 8.8% of the current price of $12.19 — as of 2026-10-07.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/GBDC/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this GBDC valuation
  • Financial statements: Golub Capital BDC, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001476765) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for GBDC as of ; valuations recomputed .

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