What Is AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (ASTS) Worth in 2026?
According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, AST SpaceMobile, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $17.86, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $67.58. With 11 out of 12 models flagging downside (-73.6% average return), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. The most optimistic model, PWERM, places fair value at $72.81 (+7.7%), while ML-RIV — the most conservative — estimates $1.51 (-97.8%). This +105.5% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about AST SpaceMobile, Inc.'s intrinsic worth. Among models with highest confidence, EPV, EROIC, Markov DDM lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.
What Do the Models Say About ASTS?
12 of 13 models are currently active for ASTS. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 11 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates ASTS's intrinsic value at $11.80, implying -82.5% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →
How Does ASTS Rank in Communications Services, NEC?
Among 16 Communications Services, NEC stocks, ASTS ranks #8 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 5.9/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 5.9 reflects mixed fundamentals.
Within the Communications Services, NEC space, AST SpaceMobile, Inc. competes in an environment where average revenue per user (ARPU) often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.
Is ASTS a Value Trap?
CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ASTS a score of 18/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →
Multi-Model Methodology
12 of 13 models are active for AST SpaceMobile, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →
According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, AST SpaceMobile, Inc. is rated at 5.9/10. This solid-tier score maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement.
The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +105.5% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →
Data Sources & Confidence
Every ASTS valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →
Across ASTS's 12 active models, average confidence is 37%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.
CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →
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