Spire Global, Inc. (SPIR) Fair Value 2026

SPIR · Specialty Business Services ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.2 /10

32 fundamental signals · 7 models active

Value Trap Risk

WARN (48/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-10-07, Spire Global, Inc. (SPIR) trades at $10.98, versus a $4.28 median fair value across its 7 active models — 61.0% below the current price. QOC: 6.2/10. Value Trap Risk: 48/100 (WARN). 7/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $2.91.

Key Facts

Ticker
SPIR
Price
$10.98
Quality Score
6.2/10
Value Trap Risk
48/100
Models Active
7/13
Last Updated
Strength: 7 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Value Trap score of 48 suggests caution despite apparent undervaluation

Is Spire Global, Inc. (SPIR) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 7-model valuation engine, Spire Global, Inc. (SPIR) appears overvalued as of : the median of 7 independent fair value estimates is $4.28, 61.0% below the current price of $10.98. Estimates range from $2.01 to $31.71. SPIR scores 6.2/10 on fundamental quality and 48/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -20.1% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,777 rated companies as of 2026-10-07. SPIR’s -61.0% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Specialty Business Services sector median is +1.2%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Spire Global, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give SPIR?

7 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($10.98)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $2.91 -73.5%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $4.92 -55.2%
Asset-Based · High Conviction
 $2.01 -81.7%
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What Is SPIR's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 7 independent models · $2.01 to $31.71

CirclFi's 7 active models place Spire Global, Inc. (SPIR) between $2.01 and $31.71 per share, a spread of 694% of the median. The median of that range — $4.28 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for SPIR, against a current price of $10.98.

Low · Dynamic NAVHigh · Regime Cross
$2.01median $4.28$31.71
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelDynamic NAV$2.01
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$31.71
Model agreement2 bullish · 5 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for SPIR. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on SPIR, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Spire Global, Inc. (SPIR) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Spire Global, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $4.28. Trading at $10.98, the stock is approaching fair value or slight overvaluation (implied return of -61.0%), as 5 of 7 models suggest limited further upside. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $31.71 (+188.8%), while Dynamic NAV — the most conservative — estimates $2.01 (-81.7%). This +270.5% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Spire Global, Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About SPIR?

7 of 13 models are currently active for SPIR. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 5 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for SPIR is $4.28 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $2.91 on its own, implying -73.5% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does SPIR Rank in Specialty Business Services?

Among 54 Specialty Business Services stocks, SPIR ranks #33 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.2/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.2 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Specialty Business Services Stocks →

Spire Global, Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is SPIR a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns SPIR a score of 48/100 (WARN). This is a warning signal. Additional research into recent 10-Q filings is recommended. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

7 of 13 models are active for Spire Global, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Spire Global, Inc. scores 6.2 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a solid rating that maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +270.5% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every SPIR valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across SPIR's 7 active models, average confidence is 33%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Spire Global, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Specialty Business Services Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Specialty Business Services stocks with 13-model coverage

THTarget Hospitality Corp.QOC 6.3NTIPNetwork-1 Technologies, Inc.QOC 6.2ELVGElvictor Group, Inc.QOC 6.3TICTIC Solutions, Inc.QOC 6.1ADMQADM Endeavors, Inc.QOC 6.3TISITeam, Inc.QOC 6.0SSTSystem1, Inc.QOC 4.1DLBDolby Laboratories, Inc.QOC 8.5CMPRCimpress plcQOC 7.8CTASCintas CorporationQOC 9.2RELXRELX PLCQOC 9.2

Read investment analysis: TH · NTIP · ELVG · TIC · ADMQ · TISI · SST · DLB · CMPR · CTAS · RELX

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to SPIR?

7 companies across all industries closest to SPIR’s Quality of Company score of 6.2/10.

RVPRetractable Technologies, Inc.QOC 6.2FMCFMC CorporationQOC 6.2VACMarriott Vacations Worldwide CorporationQOC 6.2NWENorthWestern Energy Group, Inc.QOC 6.2WHFWhiteHorse Finance, Inc.QOC 6.2QMCIQuoteMedia, Inc.QOC 6.2NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: RVP · FMC · VAC · NWE · WHF · QMCI · NVDA

Where Does SPIR Sit in CirclFi's Specialty Business Services Rankings?

SPIR is ranked against every other Specialty Business Services stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Specialty Business Services stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Spire Global, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Spire Global, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Spire Global, Inc. (SPIR)'s intrinsic value at $4.28 — the median of 7 independent model estimates as of 2026-10-07, ranging from $2.01 to $31.71. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $2.91 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 6.2/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is SPIR overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $10.98, 2 of 7 active models suggest SPIR may be undervalued, while 5 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 7 fair value estimates is $4.28, 61.0% below the current price of $10.98 — a consensus view that SPIR is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Spire Global, Inc.'s business model in Specialty Business Services.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.2 mean for SPIR?

Spire Global, Inc.'s QOC of 6.2/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on SPIR?

CirclFi analyzes SPIR with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 7 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on SPIR?

Of the 7 models currently active on SPIR, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $31.71 per share, and Dynamic NAV is the most bearish at $2.01. CirclFi's published fair value for SPIR is the median of that range, $4.28, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 694% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is SPIR a value trap in 2026?

Spire Global, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 48/100 (WARN). This elevated score suggests the stock may look undervalued but faces deteriorating fundamentals — declining margins, rising debt, or shrinking revenue could make the apparent discount deceptive. Browse our ranked stock lists to compare value-trap scores across industries.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 7-model valuation engine, Spire Global, Inc. (SPIR) has a median fair value of $4.28 — 61.0% below the current price of $10.98 — as of 2026-10-07.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/SPIR/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this SPIR valuation
  • Financial statements: Spire Global, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001816017) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for SPIR as of ; valuations recomputed .

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