Calix, Inc. (CALX) Fair Value 2026

CALX · Software - Infrastructure ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.1 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (6/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Calix, Inc. (CALX) trades at $37.69, versus a $15.00 median fair value across its 11 active models — 60.2% below the current price. QOC: 8.1/10. Value Trap Risk: 6/100 (SAFE). 11/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $22.22.

Key Facts

Ticker
CALX
Price
$37.69
Quality Score
8.1/10
Value Trap Risk
6/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 8.1/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Calix, Inc. (CALX) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Calix, Inc. (CALX) appears overvalued as of : the median of 11 independent fair value estimates is $15.00, 60.2% below the current price of $37.69. Estimates range from $0.68 to $56.80. CALX scores 8.1/10 on fundamental quality and 6/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. CALX’s -60.2% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Software - Infrastructure sector median is -22.1%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Calix, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give CALX?

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($37.69)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $22.22 -41.1%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $3.14 -91.7%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $15.39 -59.2%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $12.73 -66.2%
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What Is CALX's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 11 independent models · $0.68 to $56.80

CirclFi's 11 active models place Calix, Inc. (CALX) between $0.68 and $56.80 per share, a spread of 374% of the median. The median of that range — $15.00 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for CALX, against a current price of $37.69.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · Regime Cross
$0.68median $15.00$56.80
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$0.68
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$56.80
Model agreement1 bullish · 10 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for CALX. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on CALX, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Calix, Inc. (CALX) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Calix, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $15.00. Trading at its current price of $37.69, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 10 of 11 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -60.2%. Model dispersion is worth noting: Regime Cross targets $56.80 (+50.7%), versus ML-RIV at $0.68 (-98.2%). This +148.9% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About CALX?

11 of 13 models are currently active for CALX. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 10 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for CALX is $15.00 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $22.22 on its own, implying -41.1% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does CALX Rank in Software - Infrastructure?

Among 186 Software - Infrastructure stocks, CALX ranks #42 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.1/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.1 places CALX in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Software - Infrastructure Stocks →

The Software - Infrastructure sector introduces analytical considerations specific to digital enterprise businesses. For Calix, Inc., metrics like free cash flow margin provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is CALX a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns CALX a score of 6/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for Calix, Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Calix, Inc. scores 8.1 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a strong rating that demonstrates strong fundamentals across the majority of our quality signals. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +148.9% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every CALX valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across CALX's 11 active models, average confidence is 40%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Calix, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Software - Infrastructure Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Software - Infrastructure stocks with 13-model coverage

CRWDCrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.2KSPIJoint Stock Company Kaspi.kzQOC 8.1PGYPagaya Technologies Ltd.QOC 8.2CCSIConsensus Cloud Solutions, Inc.QOC 8.1CPAYCorpay, Inc.QOC 8.2NTNXNutanix, Inc.QOC 8.1REKRRekor Systems, Inc.QOC 6.1BNAIBrand Engagement Network, Inc.QOC 5.2NYAXNayax Ltd.QOC 2.5FTNTFortinet, Inc.QOC 9.7QLYSQualys, Inc.QOC 9.7

Read investment analysis: CRWD · KSPI · PGY · CCSI · CPAY · NTNX · REKR · BNAI · NYAX · FTNT · QLYS

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to CALX?

6 companies across all industries closest to CALX’s Quality of Company score of 8.1/10.

KRPKimbell Royalty Partners, LPQOC 8.1CASSCass Information Systems, Inc.QOC 8.1ATLOAmes National CorporationQOC 8.1PMPhilip Morris International Inc.QOC 8.1CEPUCentral Puerto S.A.QOC 8.1NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: KRP · CASS · ATLO · PM · CEPU · NVDA

Where Does CALX Sit in CirclFi's Software - Infrastructure Rankings?

CALX is ranked against every other Software - Infrastructure stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Software - Infrastructure stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Calix, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Calix, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Calix, Inc. (CALX)'s intrinsic value at $15.00 — the median of 11 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $0.68 to $56.80. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $22.22 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.1/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is CALX overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $37.69, 1 of 11 active models suggest CALX may be undervalued, while 10 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 11 fair value estimates is $15.00, 60.2% below the current price of $37.69 — a consensus view that CALX is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Calix, Inc.'s business model in Software - Infrastructure.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.1 mean for CALX?

Calix, Inc.'s QOC of 8.1/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on CALX?

CirclFi analyzes CALX with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on CALX?

Of the 11 models currently active on CALX, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $56.80 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $0.68. CirclFi's published fair value for CALX is the median of that range, $15.00, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 374% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is CALX a value trap in 2026?

Calix, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 6/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Calix, Inc. (CALX) has a median fair value of $15.00 — 60.2% below the current price of $37.69 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/CALX/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this CALX valuation
  • Financial statements: Calix, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001406666) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for CALX as of ; valuations recomputed .

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