Trinity Capital Inc. (TRIN) Fair Value 2026

TRIN · Asset Management ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.0 /10

32 fundamental signals · 9 models active

Value Trap Risk

WARN (40/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Trinity Capital Inc. (TRIN) trades at $18.56, versus a $17.76 median fair value across its 9 active models — 4.3% below the current price. QOC: 6.0/10. Value Trap Risk: 40/100 (WARN). 9/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
TRIN
Price
$18.56
Quality Score
6.0/10
Value Trap Risk
40/100
Models Active
9/13
Last Updated
Strength: Markov DDM suggests +140.7% upside with 50% confidence
Risk: Value Trap score of 40 suggests caution despite apparent undervaluation

Is Trinity Capital Inc. (TRIN) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Trinity Capital Inc. (TRIN) appears fairly valued as of : the median of 9 independent fair value estimates is $17.76, within 4.3% of the current price of $18.56. Estimates range from $2.29 to $44.67. TRIN scores 6.0/10 on fundamental quality and 40/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. TRIN’s -4.3% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Asset Management sector median is -4.4%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Trinity Capital Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give TRIN?

9 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($18.56)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $17.37 -6.4%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $17.80 -4.1%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $44.67 +140.7%
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $17.81 -4.0%
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What Is TRIN's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 9 independent models · $2.29 to $44.67

CirclFi's 9 active models place Trinity Capital Inc. (TRIN) between $2.29 and $44.67 per share, a spread of 239% of the median. The median of that range — $17.76 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for TRIN, against a current price of $18.56.

Low · Sentiment SOTPHigh · Markov DDM
$2.29median $17.76$44.67
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelSentiment SOTP$2.29
Most bullish modelMarkov DDM$44.67
Model agreement2 bullish · 4 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for TRIN. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on TRIN, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Trinity Capital Inc. (TRIN) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Trinity Capital Inc. presents a highly debated valuation profile at its current price of $18.56. The median intrinsic value is estimated at $17.76 (-4.3% median upside), masking a wide model spread between the 2 bullish models and 4 bearish models. Model dispersion is worth noting: Markov DDM targets $44.67 (+140.7%), versus Sentiment SOTP at $2.29 (-87.7%). This +228.3% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About TRIN?

9 of 13 models are currently active for TRIN. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 7 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for TRIN is $17.76 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does TRIN Rank in Asset Management?

Among 187 Asset Management stocks, TRIN ranks #77 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.0/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.0 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Asset Management Stocks →

Trinity Capital Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is TRIN a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns TRIN a score of 40/100 (WARN). This is a warning signal. Additional research into recent 10-Q filings is recommended. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

9 of 13 models are active for Trinity Capital Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Trinity Capital Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 6.0/10. This respectable score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +228.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every TRIN valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across TRIN's 9 active models, average confidence is 36%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Trinity Capital Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Asset Management Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Asset Management stocks with 13-model coverage

RANDRand Capital CorporationQOC 6.1STEPStepStone Group Inc.QOC 6.0TPVGTriplePoint Venture Growth BDC Corp.QOC 6.1OTFBlue Owl Technology Finance Corp.QOC 6.0RWAYRunway Growth Finance Corp.QOC 6.1BCSFBain Capital Specialty Finance, Inc.QOC 6.0VVRInvesco Senior Income TrustQOC 4.8IGIWestern Asset Investment Grade Opportunity Trust Inc.QOC 2.2AAMIAcadian Asset Management Inc.QOC 7.6HLNEHamilton Lane IncorporatedQOC 9.3AMPAmeriprise Financial, Inc.QOC 9.3

Read investment analysis: RAND · STEP · TPVG · OTF · RWAY · BCSF · VVR · IGI · AAMI · HLNE · AMP

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to TRIN?

7 companies across all industries closest to TRIN’s Quality of Company score of 6.0/10.

TISITeam, Inc.QOC 6.0MNTRMentor Capital, Inc.QOC 6.0VSVersus Systems Inc.QOC 6.0VTRSViatris Inc.QOC 6.0SCWO374Water Inc.QOC 6.0AIDX20/20 Biolabs, Inc.QOC 6.0NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: TISI · MNTR · VS · VTRS · SCWO · AIDX · NVDA

Where Does TRIN Sit in CirclFi's Asset Management Rankings?

TRIN is ranked against every other Asset Management stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Asset Management stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Trinity Capital Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Trinity Capital Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Trinity Capital Inc. (TRIN)'s intrinsic value at $17.76 — the median of 9 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $2.29 to $44.67. The Quality of Company score is 6.0/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is TRIN overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $18.56, 2 of 9 active models suggest TRIN may be undervalued, while 7 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 9 fair value estimates is $17.76, within 4.3% of the current price of $18.56 — a consensus view that TRIN is fairly valued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Trinity Capital Inc.'s business model in Asset Management.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.0 mean for TRIN?

Trinity Capital Inc.'s QOC of 6.0/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on TRIN?

CirclFi analyzes TRIN with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 9 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on TRIN?

Of the 9 models currently active on TRIN, Markov DDM is the most bullish at $44.67 per share, and Sentiment SOTP is the most bearish at $2.29. CirclFi's published fair value for TRIN is the median of that range, $17.76, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 239% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is TRIN a value trap in 2026?

Trinity Capital Inc.'s Value Trap score is 40/100 (WARN). This elevated score suggests the stock may look undervalued but faces deteriorating fundamentals — declining margins, rising debt, or shrinking revenue could make the apparent discount deceptive. Browse our ranked stock lists to compare value-trap scores across industries.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Trinity Capital Inc. (TRIN) has a median fair value of $17.76 — within 4.3% of the current price of $18.56 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/TRIN/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this TRIN valuation
  • Financial statements: Trinity Capital Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001786108) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for TRIN as of ; valuations recomputed .

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