Rand Capital Corporation (RAND) Fair Value 2026

RAND · — ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.9 /10

32 fundamental signals · 9 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-14, Rand Capital Corporation (RAND) trades at $10.00. QOC: 6.9/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 9/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
RAND
Price
$10.00
Quality Score
6.9/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
9/13
Last Updated
Strength: RCMH-DCF suggests +491.7% upside with 39% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (9/13) may reduce confidence

Valuation Matrix

9 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($10.00)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$42.70 +327.0%
First Chicago
Low Conviction
$3.98 -60.2%
Dynamic NAV
Medium Conviction
$8.38 -16.2%
RCMH-DCF
Medium Conviction
$59.17 +491.7%

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What Is Rand Capital Corporation (RAND) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Rand Capital Corporation presents a highly debated valuation profile at its current price of $10.00. The composite intrinsic value is estimated at $19.32 (+93.2% average upside), masking a wide model spread between the 4 bullish models and 4 bearish models. Model dispersion is worth noting: RCMH-DCF targets $59.17 (+491.7%), versus ML-RIV at $0.65 (-93.5%). This +585.2% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About RAND?

9 of 13 models are currently active for RAND. Of these, 5 models suggest upside while 4 models suggest overvaluation. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does RAND Rank in —?

RAND operates in the — sector. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.9/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.9 indicates above-average quality.

Rand Capital Corporation operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is RAND a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns RAND a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

9 of 13 models are active for Rand Capital Corporation. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Rand Capital Corporation is rated at 6.9/10. This solid-tier score maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +585.2% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every RAND valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across RAND's 9 active models, average confidence is 25%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Rand Capital Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

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Frequently Asked Questions About Rand Capital Corporation

What is Rand Capital Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Rand Capital Corporation (RAND) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value. The Quality of Company score is 6.9/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is RAND overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $10.00, 5 of 9 active models suggest RAND may be undervalued, while 4 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Rand Capital Corporation's business model in —.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.9 mean for RAND?

Rand Capital Corporation's QOC of 6.9/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on RAND?

CirclFi analyzes RAND with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 9 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is RAND a value trap in 2026?

Rand Capital Corporation's Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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