SU Group Holdings Limited (SUGP) Fair Value 2026

SUGP · Services-Detective, Guard & Armored Car Services ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

9.3 /10

32 fundamental signals · 8 models active

Value Trap Risk

(—/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, SU Group Holdings Limited (SUGP) trades at $0.54, approximately 82% below CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $2.99. QOC: 9.3/10. 8/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
SUGP
Price
$0.54
Quality Score
9.3/10
Value Trap Risk
—/100
Models Active
8/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +459.6% upside with 61% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (8/13) may reduce confidence

Valuation Matrix

8 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($0.54)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
$2.99 +459.6%
Earnings Power Value
Medium Conviction
$2.71 +406.4%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$2.91 +444.5%
Dynamic NAV
Medium Conviction
$1.67 +212.2%

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What Is SU Group Holdings Limited (SUGP) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, SU Group Holdings Limited's intrinsic value is estimated at a composite fair value of $2.25. At a current market price of $0.54, 8 of 8 active valuation models identify upside potential, projecting an average implied return of +320.2%. Notably, Bayesian DCF sees the most upside at +459.6% (fair value: $2.99), while PWERM is the most conservative at +63.9% ($0.88). The spread between these extremes — +395.7% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About SUGP?

8 of 13 models are currently active for SUGP. All 8 active models suggest the stock trades below fair value. The Bayesian DCF estimates SUGP's intrinsic value at $2.99, implying +459.6% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does SUGP Rank in Services-Detective, Guard & Armored Car Services?

Among 3 Services-Detective, Guard & Armored Car Services stocks, SUGP ranks #1 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 9.3/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 9.3 places SUGP in the top tier.

SU Group Holdings Limited operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is SUGP a Value Trap?

The Value Trap algorithm is not active for SUGP. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

8 of 13 models are active for SU Group Holdings Limited. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, SU Group Holdings Limited's fundamental quality profile registers 9.3/10. This exceptional score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +395.7% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every SUGP valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across SUGP's 8 active models, average confidence is 43%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy SU Group Holdings Limited Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Services-Detective, Guard & Armored Car Services Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

2 related Services-Detective, Guard & Armored Car Services stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: GFAI · YOOV

Frequently Asked Questions About SU Group Holdings Limited

What is SU Group Holdings Limited's intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, SU Group Holdings Limited (SUGP) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $2.99. The Quality of Company score is 9.3/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is SUGP overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $0.54, 8 of 8 active models suggest SUGP may be undervalued, while 0 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits SU Group Holdings Limited's business model in Services-Detective, Guard & Armored Car Services.

What does a Quality of Company score of 9.3 mean for SUGP?

SU Group Holdings Limited's QOC of 9.3/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on SUGP?

CirclFi analyzes SUGP with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 8 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is SUGP a value trap in 2026?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm does not have sufficient data for SUGP at this time. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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