SU Group Holdings Limited (SUGP) Fair Value 2026

SUGP · Security & Protection Services ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.1 /10

32 fundamental signals · 2 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (28/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, SU Group Holdings Limited (SUGP) trades at $0.89, versus a $3.46 median fair value across its 2 active models — 287.6% above the current price. QOC: 6.1/10. Value Trap Risk: 28/100 (LOW). 2/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
SUGP
Price
$0.89
Quality Score
6.1/10
Value Trap Risk
28/100
Models Active
2/13
Last Updated
Strength: Earnings Power Value suggests +298.7% upside with 72% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (2/13) may reduce confidence

Is SU Group Holdings Limited (SUGP) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 2-model valuation engine, SU Group Holdings Limited (SUGP) appears undervalued as of : the median of 2 independent fair value estimates is $3.46, 287.6% above the current price of $0.89. Estimates range from $3.36 to $3.55. SUGP scores 6.1/10 on fundamental quality and 28/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. SUGP’s +287.6% gap is wider than that market norm. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy SU Group Holdings Limited Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give SUGP?

2 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($0.89)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $3.55 +298.7%
Asset-Based · High Conviction
 $3.36 +276.4%

All Models Active

All 2 models are displayed above.

What Is SU Group Holdings Limited (SUGP) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, SU Group Holdings Limited's intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $3.46. At a current market price of $0.89, 2 of 2 active valuation models identify upside potential, projecting a median implied return of +287.6%. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bullish — adding weight to the bullish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About SUGP?

2 of 13 models are currently active for SUGP. All 2 active models suggest the stock trades below fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for SUGP is $3.46 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does SUGP Rank in Security & Protection Services?

Among 22 Security & Protection Services stocks, SUGP ranks #16 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.1/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.1 indicates above-average quality.

SU Group Holdings Limited operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is SUGP a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns SUGP a score of 28/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

2 of 13 models are active for SU Group Holdings Limited. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, SU Group Holdings Limited's fundamental quality profile registers 6.1/10. This respectable score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

Models cluster within a tight range (+22.2% spread), increasing conviction. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every SUGP valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across SUGP's 2 active models, average confidence is 65%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy SU Group Holdings Limited Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Security & Protection Services Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Security & Protection Services stocks with 13-model coverage

BKYIBIO-key International, Inc.QOC 6.1BAERBridger Aerospace Group Holdings, Inc.QOC 6.0IVDAIveda Solutions, Inc.QOC 6.1AGSSAmeriguard Security Services, Inc.QOC 4.5KSCPKnightscope, Inc.QOC 6.3DETXLiberty Defense Holdings, Ltd.QOC 3.6SPCBSuperCom Ltd.QOC 2.1BRCBrady CorporationQOC 8.8EVLVEvolv Technologies Holdings, Inc.QOC 7.0NSSCNapco Security Technologies, Inc.QOC 9.6ALLEAllegion plcQOC 9.3

Read investment analysis: BKYI · BAER · IVDA · AGSS · KSCP · DETX · SPCB · BRC · EVLV · NSSC · ALLE

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to SUGP?

7 companies across all industries closest to SUGP’s Quality of Company score of 6.1/10.

ZKHZKH Group LimitedQOC 6.1TPVGTriplePoint Venture Growth BDC Corp.QOC 6.1VIAVia Transportation, Inc.QOC 6.1BCOW1895 Bancorp of Wisconsin, Inc.QOC 6.1OGIOrganigram Global Inc.QOC 6.1OMHOhmyhome LimitedQOC 6.1NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: ZKH · TPVG · VIA · BCOW · OGI · OMH · NVDA

What Else Do Investors Ask About SU Group Holdings Limited’s Valuation?

What is SU Group Holdings Limited's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts SU Group Holdings Limited (SUGP)'s intrinsic value at $3.46 — the median of 2 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $3.36 to $3.55. The Quality of Company score is 6.1/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is SUGP overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $0.89, 2 of 2 active models suggest SUGP may be undervalued, while 0 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 2 fair value estimates is $3.46, 287.6% above the current price of $0.89 — a consensus view that SUGP is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits SU Group Holdings Limited's business model in Security & Protection Services.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.1 mean for SUGP?

SU Group Holdings Limited's QOC of 6.1/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on SUGP?

CirclFi analyzes SUGP with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 2 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is SUGP a value trap in 2026?

SU Group Holdings Limited's Value Trap score is 28/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 2-model valuation engine, SU Group Holdings Limited (SUGP) has a median fair value of $3.46 — 287.6% above the current price of $0.89 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/SUGP/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this SUGP valuation
  • Financial statements: SU Group Holdings Limited 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001969863) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for SUGP as of ; valuations recomputed .