Great Elm Group, Inc. (GEG) Fair Value 2026

GEG · Asset Management ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.1 /10

32 fundamental signals · 7 models active

Value Trap Risk

WARN (52/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Great Elm Group, Inc. (GEG) trades at $2.16, versus a $2.55 median fair value across its 7 active models — 17.9% above the current price. QOC: 6.1/10. Value Trap Risk: 52/100 (WARN). 7/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $1.89.

Key Facts

Ticker
GEG
Price
$2.16
Quality Score
6.1/10
Value Trap Risk
52/100
Models Active
7/13
Last Updated
Strength: CUCE Ensemble suggests +17.9% upside with 12% confidence
Risk: Value Trap score of 52 suggests caution despite apparent undervaluation

Is Great Elm Group, Inc. (GEG) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 7-model valuation engine, Great Elm Group, Inc. (GEG) appears undervalued as of : the median of 7 independent fair value estimates is $2.55, 17.9% above the current price of $2.16. Estimates range from $0.05 to $3.80. GEG scores 6.1/10 on fundamental quality and 52/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. GEG’s +17.9% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Asset Management sector median is -4.4%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Great Elm Group, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give GEG?

7 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($2.16)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $1.89 -12.3%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $2.55 +17.9%
Asset-Based · High Conviction
 $0.05 -97.5%
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What Is GEG's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 7 independent models · $0.05 to $3.80

CirclFi's 7 active models place Great Elm Group, Inc. (GEG) between $0.05 and $3.80 per share, a spread of 147% of the median. The median of that range — $2.55 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for GEG, against a current price of $2.16.

Low · Dynamic NAVHigh · RCMH-DCF
$0.05median $2.55$3.80
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelDynamic NAV$0.05
Most bullish modelRCMH-DCF$3.80
Model agreement5 bullish · 2 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for GEG. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on GEG, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Great Elm Group, Inc. (GEG) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Great Elm Group, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $2.55. While the stock appears modestly undervalued at $2.16 (implied upside of +17.9%), our analysis suggests a thinner margin of safety across 5 of 7 bullish models. Notably, RCMH-DCF sees the most upside at +76.0% (fair value: $3.80), while Dynamic NAV is the most conservative at -97.5% ($0.05). The spread between these extremes — +173.6% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About GEG?

7 of 13 models are currently active for GEG. Of these, 5 models suggest upside while 2 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for GEG is $2.55 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $1.89 on its own, implying -12.3% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does GEG Rank in Asset Management?

Among 187 Asset Management stocks, GEG ranks #72 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.1/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.1 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Asset Management Stocks →

Great Elm Group, Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is GEG a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns GEG a score of 52/100 (WARN). This is a warning signal. Additional research into recent 10-Q filings is recommended. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

7 of 13 models are active for Great Elm Group, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Great Elm Group, Inc. is rated at 6.1/10. This solid-tier score maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +173.6% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every GEG valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across GEG's 7 active models, average confidence is 33%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Great Elm Group, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Asset Management Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Asset Management stocks with 13-model coverage

NMFCNew Mountain Finance CorporationQOC 6.2FSKFS KKR Capital Corp.QOC 6.1EQHEquitable Holdings, Inc.QOC 6.2RWAYRunway Growth Finance Corp.QOC 6.1WHFWhiteHorse Finance, Inc.QOC 6.2TPVGTriplePoint Venture Growth BDC Corp.QOC 6.1PPTFranklin Premier Income TrustQOC 4.9SPMASound Point Meridian Capital, Inc.QOC 3.4BCGBinah Capital Group, Inc.QOC 7.7HLNEHamilton Lane IncorporatedQOC 9.3AMPAmeriprise Financial, Inc.QOC 9.3

Read investment analysis: NMFC · FSK · EQH · RWAY · WHF · TPVG · PPT · SPMA · BCG · HLNE · AMP

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to GEG?

7 companies across all industries closest to GEG’s Quality of Company score of 6.1/10.

IONII-ON Digital Corp.QOC 6.1STOKStoke Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 6.1MDLKModuLink Inc.QOC 6.1AESIAtlas Energy Solutions Inc.QOC 6.1MFImF International LimitedQOC 6.1CMPCompass Minerals International, Inc.QOC 6.1NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: IONI · STOK · MDLK · AESI · MFI · CMP · NVDA

Where Does GEG Sit in CirclFi's Asset Management Rankings?

GEG is ranked against every other Asset Management stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Asset Management stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Great Elm Group, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Great Elm Group, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Great Elm Group, Inc. (GEG)'s intrinsic value at $2.55 — the median of 7 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $0.05 to $3.80. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $1.89 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 6.1/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is GEG overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $2.16, 5 of 7 active models suggest GEG may be undervalued, while 2 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 7 fair value estimates is $2.55, 17.9% above the current price of $2.16 — a consensus view that GEG is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Great Elm Group, Inc.'s business model in Asset Management.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.1 mean for GEG?

Great Elm Group, Inc.'s QOC of 6.1/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on GEG?

CirclFi analyzes GEG with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 7 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on GEG?

Of the 7 models currently active on GEG, RCMH-DCF is the most bullish at $3.80 per share, and Dynamic NAV is the most bearish at $0.05. CirclFi's published fair value for GEG is the median of that range, $2.55, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 147% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is GEG a value trap in 2026?

Great Elm Group, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 52/100 (WARN). This elevated score suggests the stock may look undervalued but faces deteriorating fundamentals — declining margins, rising debt, or shrinking revenue could make the apparent discount deceptive. Browse our ranked stock lists to compare value-trap scores across industries.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 7-model valuation engine, Great Elm Group, Inc. (GEG) has a median fair value of $2.55 — 17.9% above the current price of $2.16 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/GEG/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this GEG valuation
  • Financial statements: Great Elm Group, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001831096) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for GEG as of ; valuations recomputed .

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