FutureFuel Corp. (FF) Fair Value 2026

FF · Specialty Chemicals ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.1 /10

32 fundamental signals · 3 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (36/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, FutureFuel Corp. (FF) trades at $5.34, versus a $4.59 median fair value across its 3 active models — 14.0% below the current price. QOC: 6.1/10. Value Trap Risk: 36/100 (LOW). 3/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
FF
Price
$5.34
Quality Score
6.1/10
Value Trap Risk
36/100
Models Active
3/13
Last Updated
Strength: FTNN Topology suggests +68.4% upside with 6% confidence
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is FutureFuel Corp. (FF) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 3-model valuation engine, FutureFuel Corp. (FF) appears overvalued as of : the median of 3 independent fair value estimates is $4.59, 14.0% below the current price of $5.34. Estimates range from $2.53 to $8.99. FF scores 6.1/10 on fundamental quality and 36/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. FF’s -14.0% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Specialty Chemicals sector median is -36.7%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy FutureFuel Corp. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give FF?

3 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($5.34)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Asset-Based · High Conviction
 $2.53 -52.7%
Relative · Low Conviction
 $4.59 -14.0%
Relative · Low Conviction
 $8.99 +68.4%

All Models Active

All 3 models are displayed above.

What Is FF's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 3 independent models · $2.53 to $8.99

CirclFi's 3 active models place FutureFuel Corp. (FF) between $2.53 and $8.99 per share, a spread of 141% of the median. The median of that range — $4.59 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for FF, against a current price of $5.34.

Low · Dynamic NAVHigh · FTNN
$2.53median $4.59$8.99
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelDynamic NAV$2.53
Most bullish modelFTNN Topology$8.99
Model agreement1 bullish · 2 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for FF. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on FF, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is FutureFuel Corp. (FF) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, FutureFuel Corp.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $4.59. Trading at $5.34, the stock is approaching fair value or slight overvaluation (implied return of -14.0%), as 2 of 3 models suggest limited further upside. Model dispersion is worth noting: FTNN targets $8.99 (+68.4%), versus Dynamic NAV at $2.53 (-52.7%). This +121.1% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About FF?

3 of 13 models are currently active for FF. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 2 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for FF is $4.59 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does FF Rank in Specialty Chemicals?

Among 70 Specialty Chemicals stocks, FF ranks #49 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.1/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.1 indicates above-average quality.

See all Most Undervalued Specialty Chemicals Stocks →

FutureFuel Corp.'s positioning within the Specialty Chemicals segment means that organic revenue growth plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including automation and productivity gains — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is FF a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns FF a score of 36/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

3 of 13 models are active for FutureFuel Corp.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, FutureFuel Corp. earns a quality score of 6.1/10. This respectable rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +121.1% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every FF valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across FF's 3 active models, average confidence is 25%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy FutureFuel Corp. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Specialty Chemicals Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Specialty Chemicals stocks with 13-model coverage

LWLGLightwave Logic, Inc.QOC 6.1PRMPerimeter Solutions, Inc.QOC 6.0CCThe Chemours CompanyQOC 6.1BLGOBioLargo, Inc.QOC 5.9NNUPNocopi Technologies, Inc.QOC 6.3RLEARubber Leaf Inc.QOC 5.8YMATJ-Star Holding Co., Ltd.QOC 3.1NTICNorthern Technologies International CorporationQOC 8.2ALTOAlto Ingredients, Inc.QOC 7.2ODCOil-Dri Corporation of AmericaQOC 9.2RPMRPM International Inc.QOC 9.0

Read investment analysis: LWLG · PRM · CC · BLGO · NNUP · RLEA · YMAT · NTIC · ALTO · ODC · RPM

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to FF?

7 companies across all industries closest to FF’s Quality of Company score of 6.1/10.

MDBHMDB Capital Holdings, LLCQOC 6.1IMRNImmuron LimitedQOC 6.1OGCOceanaGold CorporationQOC 6.1BXBLBoxabl Inc.QOC 6.1BRSPBrightSpire Capital, Inc.QOC 6.1RILYBRC Group Holdings, Inc.QOC 6.1NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: MDBH · IMRN · OGC · BXBL · BRSP · RILY · NVDA

Where Does FF Sit in CirclFi's Specialty Chemicals Rankings?

FF is ranked against every other Specialty Chemicals stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Specialty Chemicals stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About FutureFuel Corp.’s Valuation?

What is FutureFuel Corp.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts FutureFuel Corp. (FF)'s intrinsic value at $4.59 — the median of 3 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $2.53 to $8.99. The Quality of Company score is 6.1/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is FF overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $5.34, 1 of 3 active models suggest FF may be undervalued, while 2 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 3 fair value estimates is $4.59, 14.0% below the current price of $5.34 — a consensus view that FF is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits FutureFuel Corp.'s business model in Specialty Chemicals.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.1 mean for FF?

FutureFuel Corp.'s QOC of 6.1/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on FF?

CirclFi analyzes FF with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 3 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on FF?

Of the 3 models currently active on FF, FTNN Topology is the most bullish at $8.99 per share, and Dynamic NAV is the most bearish at $2.53. CirclFi's published fair value for FF is the median of that range, $4.59, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 141% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is FF a value trap in 2026?

FutureFuel Corp.'s Value Trap score is 36/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 3-model valuation engine, FutureFuel Corp. (FF) has a median fair value of $4.59 — 14.0% below the current price of $5.34 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/FF/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this FF valuation
  • Financial statements: FutureFuel Corp. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001337298) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for FF as of ; valuations recomputed .