FutureFuel Corp. (FF) Fair Value 2026

FF · Industrial Organic Chemicals ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (33/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-14, FutureFuel Corp. (FF) trades at $4.72, approximately 24% below CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $6.20. QOC: 6.6/10. Value Trap Risk: 33/100 (LOW). 11/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
FF
Price
$4.72
Quality Score
6.6/10
Value Trap Risk
33/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: CUCE Ensemble suggests +278.1% upside with 3% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (11/13) may reduce confidence

Valuation Matrix

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($4.72)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
 $6.20 +31.5%
Earnings Power Value
High Conviction
 $6.01 +27.4%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
 $17.85 +278.1%
First Chicago
Medium Conviction
 $4.56 -3.5%

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What Is FutureFuel Corp. (FF) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, FutureFuel Corp. presents a highly debated valuation profile at its current price of $4.72. The composite intrinsic value is estimated at $6.19 (+31.1% average upside), masking a wide model spread between the 5 bullish models and 5 bearish models. Model dispersion is worth noting: CUCE targets $17.85 (+278.1%), versus ML-RIV at $1.04 (-77.9%). This +356.0% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About FF?

11 of 13 models are currently active for FF. Of these, 5 models suggest upside while 6 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates FF's intrinsic value at $6.20, implying +31.5% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does FF Rank in Industrial Organic Chemicals?

Among 22 Industrial Organic Chemicals stocks, FF ranks #11 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.6 indicates above-average quality.

FutureFuel Corp.'s positioning within the Industrial Organic Chemicals segment means that organic revenue growth plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including automation and productivity gains — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is FF a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns FF a score of 33/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for FutureFuel Corp.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, FutureFuel Corp. earns a quality score of 6.6/10. This respectable rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +356.0% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every FF valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across FF's 11 active models, average confidence is 37%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy FutureFuel Corp. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Industrial Organic Chemicals Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Industrial Organic Chemicals stocks with 13-model coverage

NEUNewMarket CorpQOC 9.7SXTSensient Technologies CorporatiQOC 9.2WLKPWestlake Chemical Partners LPQOC 8.8REXREX American Resources CorporatQOC 8.8MEOHMethanex CorporationQOC 8.6GEVOGevo, Inc.QOC 7.4IFFInternational Flavors & FragranQOC 6.9LODEComstock Inc.QOC 6.9

Read investment analysis: NEU · SXT · WLKP · REX · MEOH

Frequently Asked Questions About FutureFuel Corp.

What is FutureFuel Corp.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, FutureFuel Corp. (FF) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $6.20. The Quality of Company score is 6.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is FF overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $4.72, 5 of 11 active models suggest FF may be undervalued, while 6 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits FutureFuel Corp.'s business model in Industrial Organic Chemicals.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.6 mean for FF?

FutureFuel Corp.'s QOC of 6.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on FF?

CirclFi analyzes FF with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is FF a value trap in 2026?

FutureFuel Corp.'s Value Trap score is 33/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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