Element Solutions Inc (ESI) Fair Value 2026

ESI · Specialty Chemicals ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (12/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-10-07, Element Solutions Inc (ESI) trades at $37.74, versus a $8.06 median fair value across its 10 active models — 78.7% below the current price. QOC: 8.6/10. Value Trap Risk: 12/100 (SAFE). 10/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $6.32.

Key Facts

Ticker
ESI
Price
$37.74
Quality Score
8.6/10
Value Trap Risk
12/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 8.6/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Element Solutions Inc (ESI) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Element Solutions Inc (ESI) appears overvalued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $8.06, 78.7% below the current price of $37.74. Estimates range from $3.01 to $85.26. ESI scores 8.6/10 on fundamental quality and 12/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -20.1% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,777 rated companies as of 2026-10-07. ESI’s -78.7% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Specialty Chemicals sector median is -31.3%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Element Solutions Inc Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give ESI?

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($37.74)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $6.32 -83.2%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $9.79 -74.1%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $30.07 -20.3%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $5.06 -86.6%
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What Is ESI's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 10 independent models · $3.01 to $85.26

CirclFi's 10 active models place Element Solutions Inc (ESI) between $3.01 and $85.26 per share, a spread of 1021% of the median. The median of that range — $8.06 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for ESI, against a current price of $37.74.

Low · ML-RIVHigh · Regime Cross
$3.01median $8.06$85.26
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelML Residual Income$3.01
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$85.26
Model agreement1 bullish · 9 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for ESI. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on ESI, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Element Solutions Inc (ESI) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Element Solutions Inc's intrinsic value is estimated at $8.06, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $37.74. With 9 out of 10 models flagging downside (-78.7% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $85.26 (+125.9%), while ML-RIV — the most conservative — estimates $3.01 (-92.0%). This +217.9% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Element Solutions Inc's intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About ESI?

10 of 13 models are currently active for ESI. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 9 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for ESI is $8.06 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $6.32 on its own, implying -83.2% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ESI Rank in Specialty Chemicals?

Among 72 Specialty Chemicals stocks, ESI ranks #13 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.6 places ESI in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Specialty Chemicals Stocks →

Within the Specialty Chemicals space, Element Solutions Inc competes in an environment where capacity utilization rate often separates market leaders from laggards. Understanding these industry-specific dynamics is essential context for interpreting our model outputs.

Is ESI a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ESI a score of 12/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for Element Solutions Inc. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Element Solutions Inc's fundamental quality profile registers 8.6/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +217.9% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ESI valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ESI's 10 active models, average confidence is 51%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Element Solutions Inc Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Specialty Chemicals Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Specialty Chemicals stocks with 13-model coverage

CBTCabot CorporationQOC 8.6NTICNorthern Technologies International CorporationQOC 8.2AXTAAxalta Coating Systems Ltd.QOC 8.6NGVTIngevity CorporationQOC 8.2PPGPPG Industries, Inc.QOC 8.7SHWThe Sherwin-Williams CompanyQOC 8.1ALBAlbemarle CorporationQOC 7.1FFFutureFuel Corp.QOC 6.1STDNStandard Nuclear, Inc.QOC 3.3ODCOil-Dri Corporation of AmericaQOC 9.2RPMRPM International Inc.QOC 9.0

Read investment analysis: CBT · NTIC · AXTA · NGVT · PPG · SHW · ALB · FF · STDN · ODC · RPM

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to ESI?

7 companies across all industries closest to ESI’s Quality of Company score of 8.6/10.

PGNYProgyny, Inc.QOC 8.6MORNMorningstar, Inc.QOC 8.6TSTenaris S.A.QOC 8.6TRNOTerreno Realty CorporationQOC 8.6MSCIMSCI Inc.QOC 8.6SPOKSpok Holdings, Inc.QOC 8.6NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: PGNY · MORN · TS · TRNO · MSCI · SPOK · NVDA

Where Does ESI Sit in CirclFi's Specialty Chemicals Rankings?

ESI is ranked against every other Specialty Chemicals stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Specialty Chemicals stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Element Solutions Inc’s Valuation?

What is Element Solutions Inc's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Element Solutions Inc (ESI)'s intrinsic value at $8.06 — the median of 10 independent model estimates as of 2026-10-07, ranging from $3.01 to $85.26. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $6.32 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ESI overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $37.74, 1 of 10 active models suggest ESI may be undervalued, while 9 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $8.06, 78.7% below the current price of $37.74 — a consensus view that ESI is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Element Solutions Inc's business model in Specialty Chemicals.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.6 mean for ESI?

Element Solutions Inc's QOC of 8.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ESI?

CirclFi analyzes ESI with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on ESI?

Of the 10 models currently active on ESI, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $85.26 per share, and ML Residual Income is the most bearish at $3.01. CirclFi's published fair value for ESI is the median of that range, $8.06, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 1021% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is ESI a value trap in 2026?

Element Solutions Inc's Value Trap score is 12/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Element Solutions Inc (ESI) has a median fair value of $8.06 — 78.7% below the current price of $37.74 — as of 2026-10-07.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/ESI/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this ESI valuation
  • Financial statements: Element Solutions Inc 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001590714) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for ESI as of ; valuations recomputed .

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