Orion S.A. (OEC) Fair Value 2026

OEC · Miscellaneous Chemical Products ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

6.7 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (32/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, Orion S.A. (OEC) trades at $6.03, approximately 70% below CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $19.96. QOC: 6.7/10. Value Trap Risk: 32/100 (LOW). 11/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
OEC
Price
$6.03
Quality Score
6.7/10
Value Trap Risk
32/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +231.2% upside with 52% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (11/13) may reduce confidence

Valuation Matrix

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($6.03)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
High Conviction
$19.96 +231.2%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$17.94 +197.8%
First Chicago
High Conviction
$9.19 +52.5%
Markov DDM
High Conviction
$4.14 -31.3%

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What Is Orion S.A. (OEC) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Orion S.A.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $13.58, suggesting a +125.5% average upside from the current price of $6.03. While 8 models see room for appreciation, model agreement is not unanimous as 3 models flag potential overvaluation. Model dispersion is worth noting: Regime Cross targets $36.08 (+498.8%), versus ML-RIV at $2.29 (-62.0%). This +560.8% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About OEC?

11 of 13 models are currently active for OEC. Of these, 8 models suggest upside while 3 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates OEC's intrinsic value at $19.96, implying +231.2% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does OEC Rank in Miscellaneous Chemical Products?

Among 8 Miscellaneous Chemical Products stocks, OEC ranks #6 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 6.7/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 6.7 indicates above-average quality.

As a industrial enterprise, Orion S.A. operates in a sector where capacity utilization rate is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating OEC should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is OEC a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns OEC a score of 32/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for Orion S.A.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, which evaluates 32 signals including margin stability, revenue growth trajectory, leverage, and free cash flow generation, Orion S.A. is rated at 6.7/10. This solid-tier score maintains reasonable quality metrics with some areas for improvement.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +560.8% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every OEC valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across OEC's 11 active models, average confidence is 41%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Orion S.A. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

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Frequently Asked Questions About Orion S.A.

What is Orion S.A.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Orion S.A. (OEC) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $19.96. The Quality of Company score is 6.7/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is OEC overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $6.03, 8 of 11 active models suggest OEC may be undervalued, while 3 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Orion S.A.'s business model in Miscellaneous Chemical Products.

What does a Quality of Company score of 6.7 mean for OEC?

Orion S.A.'s QOC of 6.7/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on OEC?

CirclFi analyzes OEC with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is OEC a value trap in 2026?

Orion S.A.'s Value Trap score is 32/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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