Horizon Technology Finance Corporation (HRZN) Fair Value 2026

HRZN · Asset Management ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

4.8 /10

32 fundamental signals · 5 models active

Value Trap Risk

DANGER (60/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Horizon Technology Finance Corporation (HRZN) trades at $4.70, versus a $4.92 median fair value across its 5 active models — 4.8% above the current price. QOC: 4.8/10. Value Trap Risk: 60/100 (DANGER). 5/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
HRZN
Price
$4.70
Quality Score
4.8/10
Value Trap Risk
60/100
Models Active
5/13
Last Updated
Strength: CUCE Ensemble suggests +4.8% upside with 3% confidence
Risk: Value Trap score of 60 suggests caution despite apparent undervaluation

Is Horizon Technology Finance Corporation (HRZN) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, Horizon Technology Finance Corporation (HRZN) appears fairly valued as of : the median of 5 independent fair value estimates is $4.92, within 4.8% of the current price of $4.70. Estimates range from $1.03 to $11.91. HRZN scores 4.8/10 on fundamental quality and 60/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. HRZN’s +4.8% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Asset Management sector median is -4.4%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Horizon Technology Finance Corporation Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give HRZN?

5 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($4.70)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $4.92 +4.8%
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $2.40 -49.0%
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What Is HRZN's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 5 independent models · $1.03 to $11.91

CirclFi's 5 active models place Horizon Technology Finance Corporation (HRZN) between $1.03 and $11.91 per share, a spread of 221% of the median. The median of that range — $4.92 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for HRZN, against a current price of $4.70.

Low · Dynamic NAVHigh · Regime Cross
$1.03median $4.92$11.91
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelDynamic NAV$1.03
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$11.91
Model agreement2 bullish · 2 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for HRZN. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on HRZN, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Horizon Technology Finance Corporation (HRZN) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Horizon Technology Finance Corporation's intrinsic value is estimated at $4.92, presenting a divided outlook at the current price of $4.70. With a median implied return of +4.8% across a split 2–2 (bull–bear) consensus, the model spread of +231.6% underscores analytical uncertainty. Notably, Regime Cross sees the most upside at +153.5% (fair value: $11.91), while Dynamic NAV is the most conservative at -78.1% ($1.03). The spread between these extremes — +231.6% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About HRZN?

5 of 13 models are currently active for HRZN. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 2 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for HRZN is $4.92 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does HRZN Rank in Asset Management?

Among 187 Asset Management stocks, HRZN ranks #134 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 4.8/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 4.8 reflects mixed fundamentals.

See all Most Undervalued Asset Management Stocks →

Horizon Technology Finance Corporation operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is HRZN a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns HRZN a score of 60/100 (DANGER). This is a high-risk signal. Deteriorating fundamentals suggest the discount may be justified. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

5 of 13 models are active for Horizon Technology Finance Corporation. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Horizon Technology Finance Corporation scores 4.8 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a moderate rating that shows mixed signals across our quality framework with notable weaknesses. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones. The elevated Value Trap score, however, warrants additional due diligence.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +231.6% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every HRZN valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across HRZN's 5 active models, average confidence is 30%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Horizon Technology Finance Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Asset Management Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Asset Management stocks with 13-model coverage

GUTThe Gabelli Utility TrustQOC 4.8ZSTKZeroStack Corp.QOC 4.8OXSQOxford Square Capital Corp.QOC 4.8TYGTortoise Energy Infrastructure CorporationQOC 4.7MLCIMount Logan Capital Inc.QOC 4.8RVTRoyce Small-Cap Trust, Inc.QOC 4.7PDCCPearl Diver Credit Company Inc.QOC 2.2DBRGDigitalBridge Group, Inc.QOC 7.3CGBDCarlyle Secured Lending, Inc.QOC 5.6HLNEHamilton Lane IncorporatedQOC 9.3AMPAmeriprise Financial, Inc.QOC 9.3

Read investment analysis: GUT · ZSTK · OXSQ · TYG · MLCI · RVT · PDCC · DBRG · CGBD · HLNE · AMP

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to HRZN?

7 companies across all industries closest to HRZN’s Quality of Company score of 4.8/10.

IFBDInfobird Co., LtdQOC 4.8MBXMBX Biosciences, Inc.QOC 4.8RLMDRelmada Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 4.8HSLVHighlander Silver Corp.QOC 4.8AGENAgenus Inc.QOC 4.8THMGThunder Mountain Gold, Inc.QOC 4.8NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: IFBD · MBX · RLMD · HSLV · AGEN · THMG · NVDA

Where Does HRZN Sit in CirclFi's Asset Management Rankings?

HRZN is ranked against every other Asset Management stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Asset Management stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Horizon Technology Finance Corporation’s Valuation?

What is Horizon Technology Finance Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Horizon Technology Finance Corporation (HRZN)'s intrinsic value at $4.92 — the median of 5 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $1.03 to $11.91. The Quality of Company score is 4.8/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is HRZN overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $4.70, 3 of 5 active models suggest HRZN may be undervalued, while 2 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 5 fair value estimates is $4.92, within 4.8% of the current price of $4.70 — a consensus view that HRZN is fairly valued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Horizon Technology Finance Corporation's business model in Asset Management.

What does a Quality of Company score of 4.8 mean for HRZN?

Horizon Technology Finance Corporation's QOC of 4.8/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores below 5 flag potential fundamental weaknesses requiring careful analysis.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on HRZN?

CirclFi analyzes HRZN with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 5 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on HRZN?

Of the 5 models currently active on HRZN, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $11.91 per share, and Dynamic NAV is the most bearish at $1.03. CirclFi's published fair value for HRZN is the median of that range, $4.92, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 221% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is HRZN a value trap in 2026?

Horizon Technology Finance Corporation's Value Trap score is 60/100 (DANGER). This elevated score suggests the stock may look undervalued but faces deteriorating fundamentals — declining margins, rising debt, or shrinking revenue could make the apparent discount deceptive. Browse our ranked stock lists to compare value-trap scores across industries.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, Horizon Technology Finance Corporation (HRZN) has a median fair value of $4.92 — within 4.8% of the current price of $4.70 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/HRZN/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this HRZN valuation

Market data for HRZN as of ; valuations recomputed .

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