Cypherpunk Technologies Inc. (CYPH) Fair Value 2026

CYPH · Asset Management ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

4.8 /10

32 fundamental signals · 3 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (35/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Cypherpunk Technologies Inc. (CYPH) trades at $1.71, versus a $0.64 median fair value across its 3 active models — 62.5% below the current price. QOC: 4.8/10. Value Trap Risk: 35/100 (LOW). 3/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $0.41.

Key Facts

Ticker
CYPH
Price
$1.71
Quality Score
4.8/10
Value Trap Risk
35/100
Models Active
3/13
Last Updated
Strength: Regime Cross-Sectional suggests +60.1% upside with 22% confidence
Risk: Below-average Quality Score of 4.8/10 signals weak fundamentals

Is Cypherpunk Technologies Inc. (CYPH) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 3-model valuation engine, Cypherpunk Technologies Inc. (CYPH) appears overvalued as of : the median of 3 independent fair value estimates is $0.64, 62.5% below the current price of $1.71. Estimates range from $0.41 to $2.74. CYPH scores 4.8/10 on fundamental quality and 35/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. CYPH’s -62.5% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Asset Management sector median is -4.4%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Cypherpunk Technologies Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give CYPH?

3 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($1.71)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · Low Conviction
 $0.41 -75.8%
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $0.64 -62.5%
Relative · Medium Conviction
 $2.74 +60.1%

All Models Active

All 3 models are displayed above.

What Is CYPH's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 3 independent models · $0.41 to $2.74

CirclFi's 3 active models place Cypherpunk Technologies Inc. (CYPH) between $0.41 and $2.74 per share, a spread of 362% of the median. The median of that range — $0.64 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for CYPH, against a current price of $1.71.

Low · Bayesian DCFHigh · Regime Cross
$0.41median $0.64$2.74
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelBayesian DCF$0.41
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$2.74
Model agreement1 bullish · 2 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for CYPH. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on CYPH, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Cypherpunk Technologies Inc. (CYPH) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Cypherpunk Technologies Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $0.64. Trading at $1.71, the stock is approaching fair value or slight overvaluation (implied return of -62.5%), as 2 of 3 models suggest limited further upside. Model dispersion is worth noting: Regime Cross targets $2.74 (+60.1%), versus Bayesian DCF at $0.41 (-75.8%). This +135.9% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About CYPH?

3 of 13 models are currently active for CYPH. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 2 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for CYPH is $0.64 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $0.41 on its own, implying -75.8% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does CYPH Rank in Asset Management?

Among 187 Asset Management stocks, CYPH ranks #125 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 4.8/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 4.8 reflects mixed fundamentals.

See all Most Undervalued Asset Management Stocks →

Cypherpunk Technologies Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is CYPH a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns CYPH a score of 35/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

3 of 13 models are active for Cypherpunk Technologies Inc.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Cypherpunk Technologies Inc. scores 4.8 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a moderate rating that shows mixed signals across our quality framework with notable weaknesses. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +135.9% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every CYPH valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across CYPH's 3 active models, average confidence is 21%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Cypherpunk Technologies Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Asset Management Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Asset Management stocks with 13-model coverage

BLWBlackRock Limited Duration Income TrustQOC 4.8KBDCKayne Anderson BDC, Inc.QOC 4.8VVRInvesco Senior Income TrustQOC 4.8GECCGreat Elm Capital Corp.QOC 4.8BOEBlackRock Enhanced Global Dividend TrustQOC 4.9MPVBarings Participation InvestorsQOC 4.8BMEZBlackRock Health Sciences Term TrustQOC 2.2ABAllianceBernstein Holding L.P.QOC 7.5STEPStepStone Group Inc.QOC 6.0HLNEHamilton Lane IncorporatedQOC 9.3AMPAmeriprise Financial, Inc.QOC 9.3

Read investment analysis: BLW · KBDC · VVR · GECC · BOE · MPV · BMEZ · AB · STEP · HLNE · AMP

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to CYPH?

4 companies across all industries closest to CYPH’s Quality of Company score of 4.8/10.

MPLTMapLight Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 4.8SEVAptera Motors Corp.QOC 4.8FJETStarfighters Space, Inc.QOC 4.8NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: MPLT · SEV · FJET · NVDA

Where Does CYPH Sit in CirclFi's Asset Management Rankings?

CYPH is ranked against every other Asset Management stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Asset Management stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Cypherpunk Technologies Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Cypherpunk Technologies Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Cypherpunk Technologies Inc. (CYPH)'s intrinsic value at $0.64 — the median of 3 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $0.41 to $2.74. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $0.41 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 4.8/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is CYPH overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $1.71, 1 of 3 active models suggest CYPH may be undervalued, while 2 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 3 fair value estimates is $0.64, 62.5% below the current price of $1.71 — a consensus view that CYPH is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Cypherpunk Technologies Inc.'s business model in Asset Management.

What does a Quality of Company score of 4.8 mean for CYPH?

Cypherpunk Technologies Inc.'s QOC of 4.8/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores below 5 flag potential fundamental weaknesses requiring careful analysis.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on CYPH?

CirclFi analyzes CYPH with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 3 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on CYPH?

Of the 3 models currently active on CYPH, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $2.74 per share, and Bayesian DCF is the most bearish at $0.41. CirclFi's published fair value for CYPH is the median of that range, $0.64, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 362% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is CYPH a value trap in 2026?

Cypherpunk Technologies Inc.'s Value Trap score is 35/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 3-model valuation engine, Cypherpunk Technologies Inc. (CYPH) has a median fair value of $0.64 — 62.5% below the current price of $1.71 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/CYPH/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this CYPH valuation
  • Financial statements: Cypherpunk Technologies Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001509745) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for CYPH as of ; valuations recomputed .