Capital Southwest Corporation (CSWC) Fair Value 2026

CSWC · Asset Management ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

5.8 /10

32 fundamental signals · 8 models active

Value Trap Risk

DANGER (63/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Capital Southwest Corporation (CSWC) trades at $25.47, versus a $14.64 median fair value across its 8 active models — 42.5% below the current price. QOC: 5.8/10. Value Trap Risk: 63/100 (DANGER). 8/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $3.38.

Key Facts

Ticker
CSWC
Price
$25.47
Quality Score
5.8/10
Value Trap Risk
63/100
Models Active
8/13
Last Updated
Strength: Markov DDM suggests +3.0% upside with 30% confidence
Risk: Value Trap score of 63 suggests caution despite apparent undervaluation

Is Capital Southwest Corporation (CSWC) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, Capital Southwest Corporation (CSWC) appears overvalued as of : the median of 8 independent fair value estimates is $14.64, 42.5% below the current price of $25.47. Estimates range from $1.61 to $32.65. CSWC scores 5.8/10 on fundamental quality and 63/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. CSWC’s -42.5% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Asset Management sector median is -4.4%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Capital Southwest Corporation Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give CSWC?

8 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($25.47)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · Low Conviction
 $3.38 -86.7%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $13.23 -48.0%
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $26.23 +3.0%
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $16.99 -33.3%
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What Is CSWC's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 8 independent models · $1.61 to $32.65

CirclFi's 8 active models place Capital Southwest Corporation (CSWC) between $1.61 and $32.65 per share, a spread of 212% of the median. The median of that range — $14.64 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for CSWC, against a current price of $25.47.

Low · RCMH-DCFHigh · Regime Cross
$1.61median $14.64$32.65
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelRCMH-DCF$1.61
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$32.65
Model agreement1 bullish · 6 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for CSWC. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on CSWC, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Capital Southwest Corporation (CSWC) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Capital Southwest Corporation's intrinsic value is estimated at $14.64. Trading at its current price of $25.47, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 6 of 8 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -42.5%. Notably, Regime Cross sees the most upside at +28.2% (fair value: $32.65), while RCMH-DCF is the most conservative at -93.7% ($1.61). The spread between these extremes — +121.9% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About CSWC?

8 of 13 models are currently active for CSWC. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 6 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for CSWC is $14.64 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $3.38 on its own, implying -86.7% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does CSWC Rank in Asset Management?

Among 187 Asset Management stocks, CSWC ranks #84 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 5.8/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 5.8 reflects mixed fundamentals.

See all Most Undervalued Asset Management Stocks →

Capital Southwest Corporation operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is CSWC a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns CSWC a score of 63/100 (DANGER). This is a high-risk signal. Deteriorating fundamentals suggest the discount may be justified. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

8 of 13 models are active for Capital Southwest Corporation. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Capital Southwest Corporation earns a quality score of 5.8/10. This respectable rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency. However, our Value Trap algorithm flags elevated risk — suggesting that apparent cheapness may mask deteriorating fundamentals.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +121.9% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every CSWC valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across CSWC's 8 active models, average confidence is 22%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Capital Southwest Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Asset Management Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Asset Management stocks with 13-model coverage

BCICBCP Investment Corp.QOC 5.8EARNEllington Credit CompanyQOC 5.8ARCCAres Capital CorporationQOC 5.9MFICMidCap Financial Investment CorporationQOC 5.7ASSTStrive, Inc.QOC 6.0CGBDCarlyle Secured Lending, Inc.QOC 5.6TWAVTaoWeave, Inc.QOC 4.8BITBlackRock Multi-Sector Income TrustQOC 2.2PSECProspect Capital CorporationQOC 7.3HLNEHamilton Lane IncorporatedQOC 9.3AMPAmeriprise Financial, Inc.QOC 9.3

Read investment analysis: BCIC · EARN · ARCC · MFIC · ASST · CGBD · TWAV · BIT · PSEC · HLNE · AMP

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to CSWC?

7 companies across all industries closest to CSWC’s Quality of Company score of 5.8/10.

CYNCyngn Inc.QOC 5.8CWHCamping World Holdings, Inc.QOC 5.8CNDTConduent IncorporatedQOC 5.8XLOXilio Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 5.8BBOTBridgeBio Oncology Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 5.8ALMUAeluma, Inc.QOC 5.8NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: CYN · CWH · CNDT · XLO · BBOT · ALMU · NVDA

Where Does CSWC Sit in CirclFi's Asset Management Rankings?

CSWC is ranked against every other Asset Management stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Asset Management stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Capital Southwest Corporation’s Valuation?

What is Capital Southwest Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Capital Southwest Corporation (CSWC)'s intrinsic value at $14.64 — the median of 8 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $1.61 to $32.65. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $3.38 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 5.8/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is CSWC overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $25.47, 2 of 8 active models suggest CSWC may be undervalued, while 6 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 8 fair value estimates is $14.64, 42.5% below the current price of $25.47 — a consensus view that CSWC is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Capital Southwest Corporation's business model in Asset Management.

What does a Quality of Company score of 5.8 mean for CSWC?

Capital Southwest Corporation's QOC of 5.8/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on CSWC?

CirclFi analyzes CSWC with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 8 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on CSWC?

Of the 8 models currently active on CSWC, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $32.65 per share, and RCMH-DCF is the most bearish at $1.61. CirclFi's published fair value for CSWC is the median of that range, $14.64, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 212% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is CSWC a value trap in 2026?

Capital Southwest Corporation's Value Trap score is 63/100 (DANGER). This elevated score suggests the stock may look undervalued but faces deteriorating fundamentals — declining margins, rising debt, or shrinking revenue could make the apparent discount deceptive. Browse our ranked stock lists to compare value-trap scores across industries.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 8-model valuation engine, Capital Southwest Corporation (CSWC) has a median fair value of $14.64 — 42.5% below the current price of $25.47 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/CSWC/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this CSWC valuation
  • Financial statements: Capital Southwest Corporation 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000017313) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for CSWC as of ; valuations recomputed .

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