Braskem SA (BAK) Fair Value 2026

BAK · Industrial Organic Chemicals ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

5.9 /10

32 fundamental signals · 5 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (6/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-15, Braskem SA (BAK) trades at $2.53. QOC: 5.9/10. Value Trap Risk: 6/100 (SAFE). 5/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
BAK
Price
$2.53
Quality Score
5.9/10
Value Trap Risk
6/100
Models Active
5/13
Last Updated
Strength: EROIC Spread suggests +154.5% upside with 10% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (5/13) may reduce confidence

Is Braskem SA (BAK) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, Braskem SA (BAK) appears undervalued as of : the median of 5 independent fair value estimates is $2.90, 14.7% above the current price of $2.53. Estimates range from $0.03 to $9.86. BAK scores 5.9/10 on fundamental quality and 6/100 on value-trap risk.

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Braskem SA Stock in 2026? →

Valuation Matrix

5 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($2.53)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
PWERM
Medium Conviction
 $2.90 +14.7%
EROIC Spread
Low Conviction
 $6.44 +154.5%

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What Is Braskem SA (BAK) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Braskem SA's intrinsic value is estimated at $4.00, suggesting a +58.1% average upside from the current price of $2.53. While 3 models see room for appreciation, model agreement is not unanimous as 2 models flag potential overvaluation. Model dispersion is worth noting: FTNN targets $9.86 (+289.6%), versus Markov DDM at $0.03 (-98.7%). This +388.2% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About BAK?

5 of 13 models are currently active for BAK. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 2 models suggest overvaluation. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does BAK Rank in Industrial Organic Chemicals?

Among 20 Industrial Organic Chemicals stocks, BAK ranks #13 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 5.9/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 5.9 reflects mixed fundamentals.

The Industrial Organic Chemicals sector introduces analytical considerations specific to industrial enterprise businesses. For Braskem SA, metrics like book-to-bill ratio provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is BAK a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns BAK a score of 6/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

5 of 13 models are active for Braskem SA. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Braskem SA earns a quality score of 5.9/10. This respectable rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +388.2% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every BAK valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across BAK's 5 active models, average confidence is 11%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Braskem SA Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Industrial Organic Chemicals Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Industrial Organic Chemicals stocks with 13-model coverage

NEUNewMarket CorpQOC 9.7SXTSensient Technologies CorporatiQOC 9.2WLKPWestlake Chemical Partners LPQOC 8.8REXREX American Resources CorporatQOC 8.8MEOHMethanex CorporationQOC 8.6GEVOGevo, Inc.QOC 7.4IFFInternational Flavors & FragranQOC 6.9LODEComstock Inc.QOC 6.9

Read investment analysis: NEU · SXT · WLKP · REX · MEOH

Frequently Asked Questions About Braskem SA

What is Braskem SA's intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Braskem SA (BAK) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value. The Quality of Company score is 5.9/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is BAK overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $2.53, 3 of 5 active models suggest BAK may be undervalued, while 2 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 5 fair value estimates is $2.90, 14.7% above the current price of $2.53 — a consensus view that BAK is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Braskem SA's business model in Industrial Organic Chemicals.

What does a Quality of Company score of 5.9 mean for BAK?

Braskem SA's QOC of 5.9/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on BAK?

CirclFi analyzes BAK with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 5 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is BAK a value trap in 2026?

Braskem SA's Value Trap score is 6/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 5-model valuation engine, Braskem SA (BAK) has a median fair value of $2.90 — 14.7% above the current price of $2.53 — as of 2026-07-15.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/BAK/ · Methodology

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