Aura Biosciences, Inc. (AURA) Fair Value 2026

AURA · Biotechnology ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

5.7 /10

32 fundamental signals · 9 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (18/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-15, Aura Biosciences, Inc. (AURA) trades at $7.01, approximately 212% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $2.25. QOC: 5.7/10. Value Trap Risk: 18/100 (SAFE). 9/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
AURA
Price
$7.01
Quality Score
5.7/10
Value Trap Risk
18/100
Models Active
9/13
Last Updated
Strength: 9 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Aura Biosciences, Inc. (AURA) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Aura Biosciences, Inc. (AURA) appears overvalued as of : the median of 9 independent fair value estimates is $1.69, 76.0% below the current price of $7.01. Estimates range from $0.46 to $6.88. AURA scores 5.7/10 on fundamental quality and 18/100 on value-trap risk.

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Aura Biosciences, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Valuation Matrix

9 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($7.01)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
Low Conviction
 $2.25 -67.9%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
 $1.69 -76.0%
First Chicago
Medium Conviction
 $0.76 -89.1%
Dynamic NAV
Medium Conviction
 $1.82 -74.0%

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What Is Aura Biosciences, Inc. (AURA) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Aura Biosciences, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $2.32, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $7.01. With 8 out of 9 models flagging downside (-67.0% average return), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. The most optimistic model, PWERM, places fair value at $6.88 (-1.8%), while ML-RIV — the most conservative — estimates $0.46 (-93.5%). This +91.7% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Aura Biosciences, Inc.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About AURA?

9 of 13 models are currently active for AURA. All 9 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. The Bayesian DCF estimates AURA's intrinsic value at $2.25, implying -67.9% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does AURA Rank in Biotechnology?

Among 76 Biotechnology stocks, AURA ranks #21 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 5.7/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 5.7 reflects mixed fundamentals.

See all Most Undervalued Biotechnology Stocks →

As a biotech sector, Aura Biosciences, Inc. operates in a sector where partnership revenue is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating AURA should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is AURA a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns AURA a score of 18/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

9 of 13 models are active for Aura Biosciences, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Aura Biosciences, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 5.7/10. This respectable score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +91.7% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every AURA valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across AURA's 9 active models, average confidence is 23%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Aura Biosciences, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Biotechnology Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Biotechnology stocks with 13-model coverage

ADMAADMA Biologics IncQOC 10.0AUPHAurinia Pharmaceuticals IncQOC 9.5ACADACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc.QOC 9.4ALNYAlnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc.QOC 8.3ACRSAclaris Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 7.4ABCLAbCellera Biologics Inc.QOC 7.1ARCTArcturus Therapeutics Holdings QOC 7.0ARVNArvinas, Inc.QOC 6.9

Read investment analysis: ADMA · AUPH · ACAD · ALNY · ACRS

See all Biotechnology stocks ranked →

Frequently Asked Questions About Aura Biosciences, Inc.

What is Aura Biosciences, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Aura Biosciences, Inc. (AURA) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $2.25. The Quality of Company score is 5.7/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is AURA overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $7.01, 0 of 9 active models suggest AURA may be undervalued, while 9 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 9 fair value estimates is $1.69, 76.0% below the current price of $7.01 — a consensus view that AURA is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Aura Biosciences, Inc.'s business model in Biotechnology.

What does a Quality of Company score of 5.7 mean for AURA?

Aura Biosciences, Inc.'s QOC of 5.7/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on AURA?

CirclFi analyzes AURA with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 9 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is AURA a value trap in 2026?

Aura Biosciences, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 18/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, Aura Biosciences, Inc. (AURA) has a median fair value of $1.69 — 76.0% below the current price of $7.01 — as of 2026-07-15.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/AURA/ · Methodology

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