ADMA Biologics, Inc. (ADMA) Fair Value 2026

ADMA · Biotechnology ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.5 /10

32 fundamental signals · 9 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (6/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, ADMA Biologics, Inc. (ADMA) trades at $9.48, versus a $4.38 median fair value across its 9 active models — 53.8% below the current price. QOC: 8.5/10. Value Trap Risk: 6/100 (SAFE). 9/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $2.75.

Key Facts

Ticker
ADMA
Price
$9.48
Quality Score
8.5/10
Value Trap Risk
6/100
Models Active
9/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 8.5/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is ADMA Biologics, Inc. (ADMA) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, ADMA Biologics, Inc. (ADMA) appears overvalued as of : the median of 9 independent fair value estimates is $4.38, 53.8% below the current price of $9.48. Estimates range from $0.82 to $9.46. ADMA scores 8.5/10 on fundamental quality and 6/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. ADMA’s -53.8% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Biotechnology sector median is -64.8%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy ADMA Biologics, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give ADMA?

9 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($9.48)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $2.75 -71.0%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $4.11 -56.7%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $6.22 -34.4%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $9.46 -0.2%
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What Is ADMA's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 9 independent models · $0.82 to $9.46

CirclFi's 9 active models place ADMA Biologics, Inc. (ADMA) between $0.82 and $9.46 per share, a spread of 197% of the median. The median of that range — $4.38 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for ADMA, against a current price of $9.48.

Low · Sentiment SOTPHigh · ML-RIV
$0.82median $4.38$9.46
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelSentiment SOTP$0.82
Most bullish modelML Residual Income$9.46
Model agreement0 bullish · 8 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for ADMA. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on ADMA, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is ADMA Biologics, Inc. (ADMA) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, ADMA Biologics, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $4.38, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $9.48. With 8 out of 9 models flagging downside (-53.8% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. Model dispersion is worth noting: ML-RIV targets $9.46 (-0.2%), versus Sentiment SOTP at $0.82 (-91.3%). This +91.1% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About ADMA?

9 of 13 models are currently active for ADMA. All 9 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for ADMA is $4.38 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $2.75 on its own, implying -71.0% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does ADMA Rank in Biotechnology?

Among 620 Biotechnology stocks, ADMA ranks #18 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.5/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.5 places ADMA in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Biotechnology Stocks →

As a biotechnology enterprise, ADMA Biologics, Inc. operates in a sector where pipeline depth and stage distribution is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating ADMA should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is ADMA a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns ADMA a score of 6/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

9 of 13 models are active for ADMA Biologics, Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, ADMA Biologics, Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 8.5/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +91.1% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every ADMA valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across ADMA's 9 active models, average confidence is 46%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy ADMA Biologics, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Biotechnology Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Biotechnology stocks with 13-model coverage

INVAInnoviva, Inc.QOC 8.6REGNRegeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc.QOC 8.5BMRNBioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc.QOC 8.6CORTCorcept Therapeutics IncorporatedQOC 8.5NAGENiagen Bioscience, Inc.QOC 8.6RIGLRigel Pharmaceuticals, Inc.QOC 8.4ABSIAbsci CorporationQOC 5.8COGTCogent Biosciences, Inc.QOC 5.0APVOAptevo Therapeutics Inc.QOC 4.3EXELExelixis, Inc.QOC 9.6INCYIncyte CorporationQOC 9.5

Read investment analysis: INVA · REGN · BMRN · CORT · NAGE · RIGL · ABSI · COGT · APVO · EXEL · INCY

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to ADMA?

7 companies across all industries closest to ADMA’s Quality of Company score of 8.5/10.

COINCoinbase Global, Inc.QOC 8.5PSMTPriceSmart, Inc.QOC 8.5VRSKVerisk Analytics, Inc.QOC 8.5BKRBaker Hughes CompanyQOC 8.5COOThe Cooper Companies, Inc.QOC 8.5HTOH2O AmericaQOC 8.5NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: COIN · PSMT · VRSK · BKR · COO · HTO · NVDA

Where Does ADMA Sit in CirclFi's Biotechnology Rankings?

ADMA is ranked against every other Biotechnology stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Biotechnology stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About ADMA Biologics, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is ADMA Biologics, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts ADMA Biologics, Inc. (ADMA)'s intrinsic value at $4.38 — the median of 9 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $0.82 to $9.46. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $2.75 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.5/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is ADMA overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $9.48, 0 of 9 active models suggest ADMA may be undervalued, while 9 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 9 fair value estimates is $4.38, 53.8% below the current price of $9.48 — a consensus view that ADMA is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits ADMA Biologics, Inc.'s business model in Biotechnology.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.5 mean for ADMA?

ADMA Biologics, Inc.'s QOC of 8.5/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on ADMA?

CirclFi analyzes ADMA with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 9 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on ADMA?

Of the 9 models currently active on ADMA, ML Residual Income is the most bullish at $9.46 per share, and Sentiment SOTP is the most bearish at $0.82. CirclFi's published fair value for ADMA is the median of that range, $4.38, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 197% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is ADMA a value trap in 2026?

ADMA Biologics, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 6/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 9-model valuation engine, ADMA Biologics, Inc. (ADMA) has a median fair value of $4.38 — 53.8% below the current price of $9.48 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/ADMA/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this ADMA valuation
  • Financial statements: ADMA Biologics, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001368514) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for ADMA as of ; valuations recomputed .

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