Aptevo Therapeutics Inc. (APVO) Fair Value 2026

APVO · Biotechnology ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

4.7 /10

32 fundamental signals · 6 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (39/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-15, Aptevo Therapeutics Inc. (APVO) trades at $4.57, approximately 18% below CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $5.55. QOC: 4.7/10. Value Trap Risk: 39/100 (LOW). 6/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
APVO
Price
$4.57
Quality Score
4.7/10
Value Trap Risk
39/100
Models Active
6/13
Last Updated
Strength: CUCE Ensemble suggests +184.2% upside with 2% confidence
Risk: Below-average Quality Score of 4.7/10 signals weak fundamentals

Is Aptevo Therapeutics Inc. (APVO) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, Aptevo Therapeutics Inc. (APVO) appears undervalued as of : the median of 6 independent fair value estimates is $7.04, 54.1% above the current price of $4.57. Estimates range from $0.36 to $12.99. APVO scores 4.7/10 on fundamental quality and 39/100 on value-trap risk.

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Aptevo Therapeutics Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Valuation Matrix

6 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($4.57)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
Low Conviction
 $5.55 +21.5%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
 $12.99 +184.2%
First Chicago
Low Conviction
 $8.03 +75.7%

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What Is Aptevo Therapeutics Inc. (APVO) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Aptevo Therapeutics Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a composite fair value of $6.84. At a current market price of $4.57, 5 of 6 active valuation models identify upside potential, projecting an average implied return of +49.6%. Notably, CUCE sees the most upside at +184.2% (fair value: $12.99), while ML-RIV is the most conservative at -92.0% ($0.36). The spread between these extremes — +276.3% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About APVO?

6 of 13 models are currently active for APVO. Of these, 5 models suggest upside while 1 model suggests overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates APVO's intrinsic value at $5.55, implying +21.5% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does APVO Rank in Biotechnology?

Among 76 Biotechnology stocks, APVO ranks #46 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 4.7/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 4.7 reflects mixed fundamentals.

See all Most Undervalued Biotechnology Stocks →

Aptevo Therapeutics Inc.'s positioning within the Biotechnology segment means that market exclusivity window plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including platform technology validation — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is APVO a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns APVO a score of 39/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

6 of 13 models are active for Aptevo Therapeutics Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Aptevo Therapeutics Inc. earns a quality score of 4.7/10. This mixed rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +276.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every APVO valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across APVO's 6 active models, average confidence is 18%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Aptevo Therapeutics Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Biotechnology Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Biotechnology stocks with 13-model coverage

ADMAADMA Biologics IncQOC 10.0AUPHAurinia Pharmaceuticals IncQOC 9.5ACADACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc.QOC 9.4ALNYAlnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc.QOC 8.3ACRSAclaris Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 7.4ABCLAbCellera Biologics Inc.QOC 7.1ARCTArcturus Therapeutics Holdings QOC 7.0ARVNArvinas, Inc.QOC 6.9

Read investment analysis: ADMA · AUPH · ACAD · ALNY · ACRS

See all Biotechnology stocks ranked →

Frequently Asked Questions About Aptevo Therapeutics Inc.

What is Aptevo Therapeutics Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Aptevo Therapeutics Inc. (APVO) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $5.55. The Quality of Company score is 4.7/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is APVO overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $4.57, 5 of 6 active models suggest APVO may be undervalued, while 1 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 6 fair value estimates is $7.04, 54.1% above the current price of $4.57 — a consensus view that APVO is undervalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Aptevo Therapeutics Inc.'s business model in Biotechnology.

What does a Quality of Company score of 4.7 mean for APVO?

Aptevo Therapeutics Inc.'s QOC of 4.7/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores below 5 flag potential fundamental weaknesses requiring careful analysis.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on APVO?

CirclFi analyzes APVO with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 6 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is APVO a value trap in 2026?

Aptevo Therapeutics Inc.'s Value Trap score is 39/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, Aptevo Therapeutics Inc. (APVO) has a median fair value of $7.04 — 54.1% above the current price of $4.57 — as of 2026-07-15.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/APVO/ · Methodology

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