Nautilus Biotechnology, Inc. (NAUT) Fair Value 2026

NAUT · Biotechnology ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

4.9 /10

32 fundamental signals · 2 models active

Value Trap Risk

LOW (34/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-10-07, Nautilus Biotechnology, Inc. (NAUT) trades at $1.77, versus a $0.36 median fair value across its 2 active models — 79.6% below the current price. QOC: 4.9/10. Value Trap Risk: 34/100 (LOW). 2/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
NAUT
Price
$1.77
Quality Score
4.9/10
Value Trap Risk
34/100
Models Active
2/13
Last Updated
Strength: 2 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Below-average Quality Score of 4.9/10 signals weak fundamentals

Is Nautilus Biotechnology, Inc. (NAUT) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 2-model valuation engine, Nautilus Biotechnology, Inc. (NAUT) appears overvalued as of : the median of 2 independent fair value estimates is $0.36, 79.6% below the current price of $1.77. Estimates range from $0.12 to $0.60. NAUT scores 4.9/10 on fundamental quality and 34/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -20.1% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,777 rated companies as of 2026-10-07. NAUT’s -79.6% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Biotechnology sector median is -61.8%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Nautilus Biotechnology, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give NAUT?

2 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($1.77)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $0.12 -93.2%
Asset-Based · High Conviction
 $0.60 -66.1%

All Models Active

All 2 models are displayed above.

What Is Nautilus Biotechnology, Inc. (NAUT) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Nautilus Biotechnology, Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $0.36. Trading at its current price of $1.77, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 2 of 2 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -79.6%.

What Do the Models Say About NAUT?

2 of 13 models are currently active for NAUT. All 2 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for NAUT is $0.36 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does NAUT Rank in Biotechnology?

Among 622 Biotechnology stocks, NAUT ranks #342 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 4.9/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 4.9 reflects mixed fundamentals.

See all Most Undervalued Biotechnology Stocks →

The Biotechnology sector introduces analytical considerations specific to biotech businesses. For Nautilus Biotechnology, Inc., metrics like clinical trial success rate provide important context that general-purpose valuation models may underweight.

Is NAUT a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns NAUT a score of 34/100 (LOW). This indicates low risk. The financial profile does not exhibit typical value trap warning signs. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

2 of 13 models are active for Nautilus Biotechnology, Inc.. Limited activation may indicate insufficient history. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Nautilus Biotechnology, Inc. scores 4.9 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a moderate rating that shows mixed signals across our quality framework with notable weaknesses. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

Models cluster within a tight range (+27.1% spread), increasing conviction. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every NAUT valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across NAUT's 2 active models, average confidence is 54%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Nautilus Biotechnology, Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Biotechnology Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Biotechnology stocks with 13-model coverage

RCKTRocket Pharmaceuticals, Inc.QOC 4.9DMRADamora Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 4.9YARWYarrow Bioscience, Inc.QOC 4.9KPTIKaryopharm Therapeutics Inc.QOC 4.9NNVCNanoViricides, Inc.QOC 4.9PLYXPolaryx Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 4.9INDPIndaptus Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 4.2GYREGyre Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 7.6TRDAEntrada Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 5.7EXELExelixis, Inc.QOC 9.6INCYIncyte CorporationQOC 9.5

Read investment analysis: RCKT · DMRA · YARW · KPTI · NNVC · PLYX · INDP · GYRE · TRDA · EXEL · INCY

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to NAUT?

4 companies across all industries closest to NAUT’s Quality of Company score of 4.9/10.

XXITwenty One Capital, Inc.QOC 4.9TDTHTrident Digital Tech Holdings LtdQOC 4.9LXEHLixiang Education Holding Co., Ltd.QOC 4.9NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: XXI · TDTH · LXEH · NVDA

Where Does NAUT Sit in CirclFi's Biotechnology Rankings?

NAUT is ranked against every other Biotechnology stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Biotechnology stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Nautilus Biotechnology, Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Nautilus Biotechnology, Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Nautilus Biotechnology, Inc. (NAUT)'s intrinsic value at $0.36 — the median of 2 independent model estimates as of 2026-10-07, ranging from $0.12 to $0.60. The Quality of Company score is 4.9/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is NAUT overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $1.77, 0 of 2 active models suggest NAUT may be undervalued, while 2 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 2 fair value estimates is $0.36, 79.6% below the current price of $1.77 — a consensus view that NAUT is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Nautilus Biotechnology, Inc.'s business model in Biotechnology.

What does a Quality of Company score of 4.9 mean for NAUT?

Nautilus Biotechnology, Inc.'s QOC of 4.9/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores below 5 flag potential fundamental weaknesses requiring careful analysis.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on NAUT?

CirclFi analyzes NAUT with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 2 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is NAUT a value trap in 2026?

Nautilus Biotechnology, Inc.'s Value Trap score is 34/100 (LOW). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 2-model valuation engine, Nautilus Biotechnology, Inc. (NAUT) has a median fair value of $0.36 — 79.6% below the current price of $1.77 — as of 2026-10-07.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/NAUT/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this NAUT valuation
  • Financial statements: Nautilus Biotechnology, Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001808805) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for NAUT as of ; valuations recomputed .