Incyte Corporation (INCY) Fair Value 2026

INCY · Biotechnology ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

9.5 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (18/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-28, Incyte Corporation (INCY) trades at $124.37, versus a $56.52 median fair value across its 10 active models — 54.6% below the current price. QOC: 9.5/10. Value Trap Risk: 18/100 (SAFE). 10/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $48.91.

Key Facts

Ticker
INCY
Price
$124.37
Quality Score
9.5/10
Value Trap Risk
18/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 9.5/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Incyte Corporation (INCY) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Incyte Corporation (INCY) appears overvalued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $56.52, 54.6% below the current price of $124.37. Estimates range from $31.89 to $94.49. INCY scores 9.5/10 on fundamental quality and 18/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.4% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,809 rated companies as of 2026-08-28. INCY’s -54.6% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Biotechnology sector median is -64.7%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Incyte Corporation Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give INCY?

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($124.37)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $48.91 -60.7%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $41.82 -66.4%
Ensemble · Medium Conviction
 $64.12 -48.4%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $88.73 -28.7%
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What Is INCY's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 10 independent models · $31.89 to $94.49

CirclFi's 10 active models place Incyte Corporation (INCY) between $31.89 and $94.49 per share, a spread of 111% of the median. The median of that range — $56.52 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for INCY, against a current price of $124.37.

Low · Sentiment SOTPHigh · ML-RIV
$31.89median $56.52$94.49
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelSentiment SOTP$31.89
Most bullish modelML Residual Income$94.49
Model agreement0 bullish · 10 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for INCY. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on INCY, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Incyte Corporation (INCY) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Incyte Corporation's intrinsic value is estimated at $56.52, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $124.37. With 10 out of 10 models flagging downside (-54.6% vs price), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. Notably, ML-RIV sees the most upside at -24.0% (fair value: $94.49), while Sentiment SOTP is the most conservative at -74.4% ($31.89). The spread between these extremes — +50.3% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About INCY?

10 of 13 models are currently active for INCY. All 10 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for INCY is $56.52 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $48.91 on its own, implying -60.7% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does INCY Rank in Biotechnology?

Among 625 Biotechnology stocks, INCY ranks #2 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 9.5/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 9.5 places INCY in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Biotechnology Stocks →

As a life sciences company, Incyte Corporation operates in a sector where cash runway (months) is a critical driver of valuation. Investors evaluating INCY should weigh these sector-specific dynamics alongside our model-derived fair values.

Is INCY a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns INCY a score of 18/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for Incyte Corporation. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Incyte Corporation's fundamental quality profile registers 9.5/10. This exceptional score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +50.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every INCY valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across INCY's 10 active models, average confidence is 52%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Incyte Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Biotechnology Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Biotechnology stocks with 13-model coverage

EXELExelixis, Inc.QOC 9.6ALNYAlnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc.QOC 9.5SPRCSciSparc Ltd.QOC 1.7HRMYHarmony Biosciences Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.2MDWDMediWound Ltd.QOC 1.9AUPHAurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc.QOC 9.2EYPTEyePoint, Inc.QOC 5.9GRCEGrace Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 5.0NWBONorthwest Biotherapeutics, Inc.QOC 4.4

Read investment analysis: EXEL · ALNY · SPRC · HRMY · MDWD · AUPH · EYPT · GRCE · NWBO

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to INCY?

7 companies across all industries closest to INCY’s Quality of Company score of 9.5/10.

MSFTMicrosoft CorporationQOC 9.5STXSeagate Technology Holdings plcQOC 9.5FIXComfort Systems USA, Inc.QOC 9.6MPWRMonolithic Power Systems, Inc.QOC 9.5GOOGAlphabet Inc.QOC 9.6IDCCInterDigital, Inc.QOC 9.5NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: MSFT · STX · FIX · MPWR · GOOG · IDCC · NVDA

Where Does INCY Sit in CirclFi's Biotechnology Rankings?

INCY is ranked against every other Biotechnology stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Biotechnology stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Incyte Corporation’s Valuation?

What is Incyte Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Incyte Corporation (INCY)'s intrinsic value at $56.52 — the median of 10 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-28, ranging from $31.89 to $94.49. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $48.91 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 9.5/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is INCY overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $124.37, 0 of 10 active models suggest INCY may be undervalued, while 10 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $56.52, 54.6% below the current price of $124.37 — a consensus view that INCY is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Incyte Corporation's business model in Biotechnology.

What does a Quality of Company score of 9.5 mean for INCY?

Incyte Corporation's QOC of 9.5/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on INCY?

CirclFi analyzes INCY with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on INCY?

Of the 10 models currently active on INCY, ML Residual Income is the most bullish at $94.49 per share, and Sentiment SOTP is the most bearish at $31.89. CirclFi's published fair value for INCY is the median of that range, $56.52, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 111% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is INCY a value trap in 2026?

Incyte Corporation's Value Trap score is 18/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Incyte Corporation (INCY) has a median fair value of $56.52 — 54.6% below the current price of $124.37 — as of 2026-08-28.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/INCY/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this INCY valuation
  • Financial statements: Incyte Corporation 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000879169) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for INCY as of ; valuations recomputed .

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