MediWound Ltd. (MDWD) Fair Value 2026

MDWD · Medicinal Chemicals & Botanical Products ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

2.1 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

— (—/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-15, MediWound Ltd. (MDWD) trades at $14.18, approximately 410% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $2.78. QOC: 2.1/10. 11/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
MDWD
Price
$14.18
Quality Score
2.1/10
Value Trap Risk
—/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +71.6% upside with 8% confidence
Risk: Below-average Quality Score of 2.1/10 signals weak fundamentals

Is MediWound Ltd. (MDWD) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, MediWound Ltd. (MDWD) appears overvalued as of : the median of 11 independent fair value estimates is $7.18, 49.4% below the current price of $14.18. Estimates range from $1.08 to $24.33. MDWD scores 2.1/10 on fundamental quality and —/100 on value-trap risk.

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy MediWound Ltd. Stock in 2026? →

Valuation Matrix

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($14.18)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
Low Conviction
 $2.78 -80.4%
Earnings Power Value
Medium Conviction
 $1.08 -92.4%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
 $7.18 -49.4%
First Chicago
Low Conviction
 $24.33 +71.6%

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What Is MediWound Ltd. (MDWD) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, MediWound Ltd.'s intrinsic value is estimated at a composite fair value of $8.57. Trading at $14.18, the stock is approaching fair value or slight overvaluation (implied return of -39.5%), as 8 of 11 models suggest limited further upside. The most optimistic model, First Chicago, places fair value at $24.33 (+71.6%), while EPV — the most conservative — estimates $1.08 (-92.4%). This +163.9% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about MediWound Ltd.'s intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About MDWD?

11 of 13 models are currently active for MDWD. Of these, 2 models suggest upside while 9 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates MDWD's intrinsic value at $2.78, implying -80.4% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does MDWD Rank in Medicinal Chemicals & Botanical Products?

Among 17 Medicinal Chemicals & Botanical Products stocks, MDWD ranks #17 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 2.1/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 2.1 signals below-average fundamentals.

MediWound Ltd.'s positioning within the Medicinal Chemicals & Botanical Products segment means that order backlog depth plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including automation and productivity gains — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is MDWD a Value Trap?

The Value Trap algorithm is not active for MDWD. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for MediWound Ltd.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, MediWound Ltd. earns a quality score of 2.1/10. This concerning rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +163.9% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every MDWD valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across MDWD's 11 active models, average confidence is 12%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy MediWound Ltd. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Medicinal Chemicals & Botanical Products Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Medicinal Chemicals & Botanical Products stocks with 13-model coverage

NAGENiagen Bioscience, Inc.QOC 9.1FTLFFitLife Brands, Inc.QOC 9.1USNAUSANA Health Sciences, Inc.QOC 7.6BTMDBiote Corp.QOC 6.7TLRYTilray Brands, Inc.QOC 6.4MTEXMannatech, IncorporatedQOC 6.3NAIINatural Alternatives InternatioQOC 6.2SNYRSynergy CHC Corp.QOC 5.8

Read investment analysis: NAGE · FTLF · USNA · BTMD · TLRY

Frequently Asked Questions About MediWound Ltd.

What is MediWound Ltd.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, MediWound Ltd. (MDWD) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $2.78. The Quality of Company score is 2.1/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is MDWD overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $14.18, 2 of 11 active models suggest MDWD may be undervalued, while 9 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 11 fair value estimates is $7.18, 49.4% below the current price of $14.18 — a consensus view that MDWD is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits MediWound Ltd.'s business model in Medicinal Chemicals & Botanical Products.

What does a Quality of Company score of 2.1 mean for MDWD?

MediWound Ltd.'s QOC of 2.1/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores below 5 flag potential fundamental weaknesses requiring careful analysis.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on MDWD?

CirclFi analyzes MDWD with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is MDWD a value trap in 2026?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm does not have sufficient data for MDWD at this time. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, MediWound Ltd. (MDWD) has a median fair value of $7.18 — 49.4% below the current price of $14.18 — as of 2026-07-15.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/MDWD/ · Methodology

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