Pelthos Therapeutics Inc. (PTHS) Fair Value 2026

PTHS · Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances) ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

5.5 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (5/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-07-13, Pelthos Therapeutics Inc. (PTHS) trades at $26.44, approximately 339% above CirclFi’s Bayesian DCF fair value of $6.03. QOC: 5.5/10. Value Trap Risk: 5/100 (SAFE). 10/13 models active.

Key Facts

Ticker
PTHS
Price
$26.44
Quality Score
5.5/10
Value Trap Risk
5/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: 10 independent models provide multi-angle coverage
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Valuation Matrix

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($26.44)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Bayesian DCF
Low Conviction
$6.03 -77.2%
Earnings Power Value
Low Conviction
$10.80 -59.1%
CUCE Ensemble
Low Conviction
$12.56 -52.5%
First Chicago
Medium Conviction
$14.13 -46.6%

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What Is Pelthos Therapeutics Inc. (PTHS) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Pelthos Therapeutics Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $14.40, suggesting the stock is overvalued at its current price of $26.44. With 9 out of 10 models flagging downside (-45.5% average return), the market may be pricing in unsustainable growth. Notably, PWERM sees the most upside at +13.6% (fair value: $30.02), while Bayesian DCF is the most conservative at -77.2% ($6.03). The spread between these extremes — +90.8% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About PTHS?

10 of 13 models are currently active for PTHS. Of these, 1 model suggests upside while 9 models suggest overvaluation. The Bayesian DCF estimates PTHS's intrinsic value at $6.03, implying -77.2% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does PTHS Rank in Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances)?

Among 139 Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances) stocks, PTHS ranks #59 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 5.5/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 5.5 reflects mixed fundamentals.

See all Most Undervalued Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances) Stocks →

Pelthos Therapeutics Inc. operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is PTHS a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns PTHS a score of 5/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for Pelthos Therapeutics Inc.. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Pelthos Therapeutics Inc.'s fundamental quality profile registers 5.5/10. This mixed score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +90.8% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every PTHS valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across PTHS's 10 active models, average confidence is 24%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Pelthos Therapeutics Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances) Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

8 related Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances) stocks with 13-model coverage

Read investment analysis: EXEL · HALO · NBIX · GILD · PLX

See all Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances) stocks ranked →

Frequently Asked Questions About Pelthos Therapeutics Inc.

What is Pelthos Therapeutics Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

Based on CirclFi's 13-model analysis, Pelthos Therapeutics Inc. (PTHS) has multiple fair value estimates. The Bayesian DCF model runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion to estimate intrinsic value at $6.03. The Quality of Company score is 5.5/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is PTHS overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $26.44, 1 of 10 active models suggest PTHS may be undervalued, while 9 indicate potential overvaluation. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Pelthos Therapeutics Inc.'s business model in Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances).

What does a Quality of Company score of 5.5 mean for PTHS?

Pelthos Therapeutics Inc.'s QOC of 5.5/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores between 5-7 reflect moderate fundamentals with areas for improvement.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on PTHS?

CirclFi analyzes PTHS with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Is PTHS a value trap in 2026?

Pelthos Therapeutics Inc.'s Value Trap score is 5/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

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