Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc. (AUPH) Fair Value 2026

AUPH · Biotechnology ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

9.2 /10

32 fundamental signals · 6 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (18/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc. (AUPH) trades at $16.48, versus a $8.28 median fair value across its 6 active models — 49.8% below the current price. QOC: 9.2/10. Value Trap Risk: 18/100 (SAFE). 6/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $13.59.

Key Facts

Ticker
AUPH
Price
$16.48
Quality Score
9.2/10
Value Trap Risk
18/100
Models Active
6/13
Last Updated
Strength: Quality Score of 9.2/10 indicates strong fundamentals
Risk: Majority of models suggest overvaluation

Is Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc. (AUPH) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc. (AUPH) appears overvalued as of : the median of 6 independent fair value estimates is $8.28, 49.8% below the current price of $16.48. Estimates range from $6.46 to $13.59. AUPH scores 9.2/10 on fundamental quality and 18/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. AUPH’s -49.8% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Biotechnology sector median is -64.8%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc. Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give AUPH?

6 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($16.48)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $13.59 -17.5%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $9.06 -45.0%
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $11.78 -28.5%
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What Is AUPH's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 6 independent models · $6.46 to $13.59

CirclFi's 6 active models place Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc. (AUPH) between $6.46 and $13.59 per share, a spread of 86% of the median. The median of that range — $8.28 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for AUPH, against a current price of $16.48.

Low · Regime CrossHigh · Bayesian DCF
$6.46median $8.28$13.59
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$6.46
Most bullish modelBayesian DCF$13.59
Model agreement0 bullish · 6 bearishmoderate

A band of this width is typical. The methods agree on direction but weight growth, reinvestment and risk differently, so treat the median as a centre of gravity rather than a precise target.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on AUPH, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc. (AUPH) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc.'s intrinsic value is estimated at $8.28. Trading at its current price of $16.48, the valuation engine raises significant caution: 6 of 6 models flag downside risk, projecting a median implied return of -49.8%. Model dispersion is worth noting: Bayesian DCF targets $13.59 (-17.5%), versus Regime Cross at $6.46 (-60.8%). This +43.3% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology.

What Do the Models Say About AUPH?

6 of 13 models are currently active for AUPH. All 6 active models suggest the stock trades above fair value. Taken together, their median fair value for AUPH is $8.28 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $13.59 on its own, implying -17.5% downside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does AUPH Rank in Biotechnology?

Among 620 Biotechnology stocks, AUPH ranks #5 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 9.2/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 9.2 places AUPH in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Biotechnology Stocks →

Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc.'s positioning within the Biotechnology segment means that R&D burn rate plays an outsized role in fundamental analysis. The sector's unique characteristics — including gene therapy and cell therapy innovation — shape both the opportunity set and risk profile.

Is AUPH a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns AUPH a score of 18/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

6 of 13 models are active for Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc.. Moderate coverage provides meaningful perspective. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc. earns a quality score of 9.2/10. This exceptional rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +43.3% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every AUPH valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across AUPH's 6 active models, average confidence is 22%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc. Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Biotechnology Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

10 related Biotechnology stocks with 13-model coverage

HRMYHarmony Biosciences Holdings, Inc.QOC 9.2HALOHalozyme Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 9.2ALNYAlnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc.QOC 9.5VRTXVertex Pharmaceuticals IncorporatedQOC 9.1INCYIncyte CorporationQOC 9.5ONCBeOne Medicines AGQOC 9.0RLAYRelay Therapeutics, Inc.QOC 5.9CABACabaletta Bio, Inc.QOC 5.0JAGXJaguar Health, Inc.QOC 4.4EXELExelixis, Inc.QOC 9.6

Read investment analysis: HRMY · HALO · ALNY · VRTX · INCY · ONC · RLAY · CABA · JAGX · EXEL

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to AUPH?

7 companies across all industries closest to AUPH’s Quality of Company score of 9.2/10.

HESMHess Midstream LPQOC 9.2CSLCarlisle Companies IncorporatedQOC 9.2IBPInstalled Building Products, Inc.QOC 9.2ESPEspey Mfg. & Electronics Corp.QOC 9.2CWCurtiss-Wright CorporationQOC 9.2UFPTUFP Technologies, Inc.QOC 9.2NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: HESM · CSL · IBP · ESP · CW · UFPT · NVDA

Where Does AUPH Sit in CirclFi's Biotechnology Rankings?

AUPH is ranked against every other Biotechnology stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Biotechnology stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc.’s Valuation?

What is Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc.'s intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc. (AUPH)'s intrinsic value at $8.28 — the median of 6 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $6.46 to $13.59. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $13.59 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 9.2/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is AUPH overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $16.48, 0 of 6 active models suggest AUPH may be undervalued, while 6 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 6 fair value estimates is $8.28, 49.8% below the current price of $16.48 — a consensus view that AUPH is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc.'s business model in Biotechnology.

What does a Quality of Company score of 9.2 mean for AUPH?

Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc.'s QOC of 9.2/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on AUPH?

CirclFi analyzes AUPH with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 6 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on AUPH?

Of the 6 models currently active on AUPH, Bayesian DCF is the most bullish at $13.59 per share, and Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bearish at $6.46. CirclFi's published fair value for AUPH is the median of that range, $8.28, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 86% of the median — a normal spread for a company of this profile. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is AUPH a value trap in 2026?

Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc.'s Value Trap score is 18/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 6-model valuation engine, Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc. (AUPH) has a median fair value of $8.28 — 49.8% below the current price of $16.48 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/AUPH/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this AUPH valuation
  • Financial statements: Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc. 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001600620) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for AUPH as of ; valuations recomputed .

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