Newmont Corporation (NEM) Fair Value 2026

NEM · Gold ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

9.3 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (6/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Newmont Corporation (NEM) trades at $132.29, versus a $91.97 median fair value across its 11 active models — 30.5% below the current price. QOC: 9.3/10. Value Trap Risk: 6/100 (SAFE). 11/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $156.65.

Key Facts

Ticker
NEM
Price
$132.29
Quality Score
9.3/10
Value Trap Risk
6/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +19.8% upside with 58% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (11/13) may reduce confidence

Is Newmont Corporation (NEM) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Newmont Corporation (NEM) appears overvalued as of : the median of 11 independent fair value estimates is $91.97, 30.5% below the current price of $132.29. Estimates range from $26.66 to $202.15. NEM scores 9.3/10 on fundamental quality and 6/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. NEM’s -30.5% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Gold sector median is -28.9%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Newmont Corporation Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give NEM?

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($132.29)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $156.65 +18.4%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $26.66 -79.8%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $104.06 -21.3%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $158.48 +19.8%
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What Is NEM's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 11 independent models · $26.66 to $202.15

CirclFi's 11 active models place Newmont Corporation (NEM) between $26.66 and $202.15 per share, a spread of 191% of the median. The median of that range — $91.97 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for NEM, against a current price of $132.29.

Low · EPVHigh · ML-RIV
$26.66median $91.97$202.15
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEarnings Power Value (EPV)$26.66
Most bullish modelML Residual Income$202.15
Model agreement4 bullish · 7 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for NEM. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on NEM, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Newmont Corporation (NEM) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Newmont Corporation's intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $91.97. Trading at $132.29, the stock is approaching fair value or slight overvaluation (implied return of -30.5%), as 7 of 11 models suggest limited further upside. Model dispersion is worth noting: ML-RIV targets $202.15 (+52.8%), versus EPV at $26.66 (-79.8%). This +132.7% range highlights the importance of multi-model analysis rather than relying on any single methodology. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About NEM?

11 of 13 models are currently active for NEM. Of these, 4 models suggest upside while 7 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for NEM is $91.97 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $156.65 on its own, implying +18.4% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does NEM Rank in Gold?

Among 57 Gold stocks, NEM ranks #2 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 9.3/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 9.3 places NEM in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Gold Stocks →

Newmont Corporation operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is NEM a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns NEM a score of 6/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for Newmont Corporation. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Newmont Corporation scores 9.3 out of 10 on our 32-signal quality assessment, a elite rating that ranks among the highest-quality businesses in our coverage universe. The QOC score synthesizes profitability margins, revenue growth reliability, debt management, and capital allocation into a single metric designed to separate durable businesses from statistically cheap ones.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +132.7% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every NEM valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across NEM's 11 active models, average confidence is 51%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Newmont Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Gold Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

9 related Gold stocks with 13-model coverage

FSMFortuna Mining Corp.QOC 9.3RGLDRoyal Gold, Inc.QOC 9.1TRXTRX Gold CorporationQOC 2.3CDECoeur Mining, Inc.QOC 9.0EQXEquinox Gold Corp.QOC 2.5DRDDRDGOLD LimitedQOC 9.0OGCOceanaGold CorporationQOC 6.1PZGParamount Gold Nevada Corp.QOC 5.1AGIAlamos Gold Inc.QOC 2.9

Read investment analysis: FSM · RGLD · TRX · CDE · EQX · DRD · OGC · PZG · AGI

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to NEM?

7 companies across all industries closest to NEM’s Quality of Company score of 9.3/10.

BZKanzhun LimitedQOC 9.3MWAMueller Water Products, Inc.QOC 9.3BMIBadger Meter, Inc.QOC 9.3HWMHowmet Aerospace Inc.QOC 9.3LMATLeMaitre Vascular, Inc.QOC 9.3DGIIDigi International Inc.QOC 9.3NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: BZ · MWA · BMI · HWM · LMAT · DGII · NVDA

Where Does NEM Sit in CirclFi's Gold Rankings?

NEM is ranked against every other Gold stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Gold stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Newmont Corporation’s Valuation?

What is Newmont Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Newmont Corporation (NEM)'s intrinsic value at $91.97 — the median of 11 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $26.66 to $202.15. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $156.65 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 9.3/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is NEM overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $132.29, 4 of 11 active models suggest NEM may be undervalued, while 7 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 11 fair value estimates is $91.97, 30.5% below the current price of $132.29 — a consensus view that NEM is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Newmont Corporation's business model in Gold.

What does a Quality of Company score of 9.3 mean for NEM?

Newmont Corporation's QOC of 9.3/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on NEM?

CirclFi analyzes NEM with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on NEM?

Of the 11 models currently active on NEM, ML Residual Income is the most bullish at $202.15 per share, and Earnings Power Value (EPV) is the most bearish at $26.66. CirclFi's published fair value for NEM is the median of that range, $91.97, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 191% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is NEM a value trap in 2026?

Newmont Corporation's Value Trap score is 6/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Newmont Corporation (NEM) has a median fair value of $91.97 — 30.5% below the current price of $132.29 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/NEM/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this NEM valuation
  • Financial statements: Newmont Corporation 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001164727) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for NEM as of ; valuations recomputed .

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