AngloGold Ashanti plc (AU) Fair Value 2026

AU · Gold ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.4 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (8/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, AngloGold Ashanti plc (AU) trades at $118.40, versus a $86.03 median fair value across its 10 active models — 27.3% below the current price. QOC: 8.4/10. Value Trap Risk: 8/100 (SAFE). 10/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $127.38.

Key Facts

Ticker
AU
Price
$118.40
Quality Score
8.4/10
Value Trap Risk
8/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +17.7% upside with 46% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (10/13) may reduce confidence

Is AngloGold Ashanti plc (AU) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, AngloGold Ashanti plc (AU) appears overvalued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $86.03, 27.3% below the current price of $118.40. Estimates range from $45.48 to $186.30. AU scores 8.4/10 on fundamental quality and 8/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. AU’s -27.3% gap is wider than that market norm, and the Gold sector median is -28.9%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy AngloGold Ashanti plc Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give AU?

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($118.40)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $127.38 +7.6%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $92.57 -21.8%
Scenario · Medium Conviction
 $139.39 +17.7%
Intrinsic · Medium Conviction
 $45.48 -61.6%
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What Is AU's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 10 independent models · $45.48 to $186.30

CirclFi's 10 active models place AngloGold Ashanti plc (AU) between $45.48 and $186.30 per share, a spread of 164% of the median. The median of that range — $86.03 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for AU, against a current price of $118.40.

Low · EROICHigh · Regime Cross
$45.48median $86.03$186.30
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelEROIC Spread$45.48
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$186.30
Model agreement3 bullish · 7 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for AU. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on AU, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is AngloGold Ashanti plc (AU) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, AngloGold Ashanti plc's intrinsic value is estimated at a median fair value of $86.03. Trading at $118.40, the stock is approaching fair value or slight overvaluation (implied return of -27.3%), as 7 of 10 models suggest limited further upside. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $186.30 (+57.3%), while EROIC — the most conservative — estimates $45.48 (-61.6%). This +118.9% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about AngloGold Ashanti plc's intrinsic worth.

What Do the Models Say About AU?

10 of 13 models are currently active for AU. Of these, 3 models suggest upside while 7 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for AU is $86.03 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $127.38 on its own, implying +7.6% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does AU Rank in Gold?

Among 57 Gold stocks, AU ranks #8 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.4/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.4 places AU in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Gold Stocks →

AngloGold Ashanti plc operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is AU a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns AU a score of 8/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for AngloGold Ashanti plc. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, AngloGold Ashanti plc earns a quality score of 8.4/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +118.9% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every AU valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across AU's 10 active models, average confidence is 38%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy AngloGold Ashanti plc Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Gold Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Gold stocks with 13-model coverage

HMYHarmony Gold Mining Company LimitedQOC 8.6IDRIdaho Strategic Resources, Inc.QOC 8.4BBarrick Mining CorporationQOC 8.8KGCKinross Gold CorporationQOC 8.2DRDDRDGOLD LimitedQOC 9.0CGAUCenterra Gold Inc.QOC 6.9FURYFury Gold Mines LimitedQOC 5.6RBTKZhen Ding Resources Inc.QOC 4.6BTGB2Gold Corp.QOC 2.8FSMFortuna Mining Corp.QOC 9.3NEMNewmont CorporationQOC 9.3

Read investment analysis: HMY · IDR · B · KGC · DRD · CGAU · FURY · RBTK · BTG · FSM · NEM

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to AU?

7 companies across all industries closest to AU’s Quality of Company score of 8.4/10.

APAMArtisan Partners Asset Management Inc.QOC 8.4NFGNational Fuel Gas CompanyQOC 8.4XPROExpro LtdQOC 8.4EMREmerson Electric Co.QOC 8.4MCBSMetroCity Bankshares, Inc.QOC 8.4WBHCWilson Bank Holding CompanyQOC 8.4NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: APAM · NFG · XPRO · EMR · MCBS · WBHC · NVDA

Where Does AU Sit in CirclFi's Gold Rankings?

AU is ranked against every other Gold stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Gold stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About AngloGold Ashanti plc’s Valuation?

What is AngloGold Ashanti plc's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts AngloGold Ashanti plc (AU)'s intrinsic value at $86.03 — the median of 10 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $45.48 to $186.30. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $127.38 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.4/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is AU overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $118.40, 3 of 10 active models suggest AU may be undervalued, while 7 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $86.03, 27.3% below the current price of $118.40 — a consensus view that AU is overvalued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits AngloGold Ashanti plc's business model in Gold.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.4 mean for AU?

AngloGold Ashanti plc's QOC of 8.4/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on AU?

CirclFi analyzes AU with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on AU?

Of the 10 models currently active on AU, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $186.30 per share, and EROIC Spread is the most bearish at $45.48. CirclFi's published fair value for AU is the median of that range, $86.03, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 164% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is AU a value trap in 2026?

AngloGold Ashanti plc's Value Trap score is 8/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, AngloGold Ashanti plc (AU) has a median fair value of $86.03 — 27.3% below the current price of $118.40 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/AU/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this AU valuation
  • Financial statements: AngloGold Ashanti plc 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0001973832) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for AU as of ; valuations recomputed .

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