Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC) Fair Value 2026

KGC · Gold ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.2 /10

32 fundamental signals · 11 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (8/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-10-07, Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC) trades at $23.81, versus a $23.77 median fair value across its 11 active models — 0.2% below the current price. QOC: 8.2/10. Value Trap Risk: 8/100 (SAFE). 11/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $29.27.

Key Facts

Ticker
KGC
Price
$23.81
Quality Score
8.2/10
Value Trap Risk
8/100
Models Active
11/13
Last Updated
Strength: First Chicago suggests +29.4% upside with 57% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (11/13) may reduce confidence

Is Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC) appears fairly valued as of : the median of 11 independent fair value estimates is $23.77, essentially in line with the current price of $23.81. Estimates range from $2.57 to $47.63. KGC scores 8.2/10 on fundamental quality and 8/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -20.1% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,777 rated companies as of 2026-10-07. KGC’s -0.2% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Gold sector median is -19.9%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Kinross Gold Corporation Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give KGC?

11 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($23.81)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $29.27 +23.0%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $9.33 -60.8%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $21.24 -10.8%
Scenario · High Conviction
 $30.82 +29.4%
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What Is KGC's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 11 independent models · $2.57 to $47.63

CirclFi's 11 active models place Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC) between $2.57 and $47.63 per share, a spread of 190% of the median. The median of that range — $23.77 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for KGC, against a current price of $23.81.

Low · Dynamic NAVHigh · Regime Cross
$2.57median $23.77$47.63
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelDynamic NAV$2.57
Most bullish modelRegime Cross-Sectional$47.63
Model agreement3 bullish · 5 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for KGC. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on KGC, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Kinross Gold Corporation's intrinsic value is estimated at a median $23.77, showing conflicting signals at the current price of $23.81. While the median implied return is -0.2%, model disagreement is elevated with a gap of +189.2% between the most bullish and bearish estimates. The most optimistic model, Regime Cross, places fair value at $47.63 (+100.0%), while Dynamic NAV — the most conservative — estimates $2.57 (-89.2%). This +189.2% gap reflects genuine analytical uncertainty about Kinross Gold Corporation's intrinsic worth. Among models with highest confidence, EPV lean bearish — adding weight to the bearish side of the thesis.

What Do the Models Say About KGC?

11 of 13 models are currently active for KGC. Of these, 5 models suggest upside while 6 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for KGC is $23.77 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $29.27 on its own, implying +23.0% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does KGC Rank in Gold?

Among 59 Gold stocks, KGC ranks #11 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.2/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.2 places KGC in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Gold Stocks →

Kinross Gold Corporation operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is KGC a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns KGC a score of 8/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

11 of 13 models are active for Kinross Gold Corporation. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi 32-factor quality framework, Kinross Gold Corporation's fundamental quality profile registers 8.2/10. This robust score captures the company's profitability depth, growth consistency, balance sheet resilience, and shareholder return track record.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +189.2% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every KGC valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across KGC's 11 active models, average confidence is 50%. Moderate confidence indicates reasonable fit.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Kinross Gold Corporation Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Gold Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Gold stocks with 13-model coverage

AUAngloGold Ashanti plcQOC 8.3ELEElemental Royalty CorporationQOC 7.6IDRIdaho Strategic Resources, Inc.QOC 8.4CGAUCenterra Gold Inc.QOC 6.9SSRMSSR Mining Inc.QOC 8.5OROR Royalties Inc.QOC 6.8VGZVista Gold Corp.QOC 5.6BGLBlue Gold LimitedQOC 4.4CNLCollective Mining Ltd.QOC 2.6FSMFortuna Mining Corp.QOC 9.3NEMNewmont CorporationQOC 9.3

Read investment analysis: AU · ELE · IDR · CGAU · SSRM · OR · VGZ · BGL · CNL · FSM · NEM

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to KGC?

7 companies across all industries closest to KGC’s Quality of Company score of 8.2/10.

CHEChemed CorporationQOC 8.2TXNTexas Instruments IncorporatedQOC 8.2DPZDomino's Pizza, Inc.QOC 8.2LEUCentrus Energy Corp.QOC 8.2RAILFreightCar America, Inc.QOC 8.2PLDPrologis, Inc.QOC 8.2NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: CHE · TXN · DPZ · LEU · RAIL · PLD · NVDA

Where Does KGC Sit in CirclFi's Gold Rankings?

KGC is ranked against every other Gold stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Gold stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Kinross Gold Corporation’s Valuation?

What is Kinross Gold Corporation's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC)'s intrinsic value at $23.77 — the median of 11 independent model estimates as of 2026-10-07, ranging from $2.57 to $47.63. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $29.27 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.2/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is KGC overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $23.81, 5 of 11 active models suggest KGC may be undervalued, while 6 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 11 fair value estimates is $23.77, essentially in line with the current price of $23.81 — a consensus view that KGC is fairly valued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Kinross Gold Corporation's business model in Gold.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.2 mean for KGC?

Kinross Gold Corporation's QOC of 8.2/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on KGC?

CirclFi analyzes KGC with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 11 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on KGC?

Of the 11 models currently active on KGC, Regime Cross-Sectional is the most bullish at $47.63 per share, and Dynamic NAV is the most bearish at $2.57. CirclFi's published fair value for KGC is the median of that range, $23.77, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 190% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is KGC a value trap in 2026?

Kinross Gold Corporation's Value Trap score is 8/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 11-model valuation engine, Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC) has a median fair value of $23.77 — essentially in line with the current price of $23.81 — as of 2026-10-07.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/KGC/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this KGC valuation
  • Financial statements: Kinross Gold Corporation 10-K and 10-Q filings on SEC EDGAR (CIK 0000701818) — 700+ standardized XBRL tags, published by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Discount-rate inputs: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis — risk-free rates, VIX, yield curve, inflation.
  • News sentiment: The GDELT Project — global media tone, input to the Sentiment SOTP model.
  • Model definitions: CirclFi methodology — the published specification for all 13 models, including the academic sources each one implements.

Market data for KGC as of ; valuations recomputed .

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