Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited (HMY) Fair Value 2026

HMY · Gold ·

By CirclFi Research Team · Data from SEC EDGAR, FRED & GDELT

Quality Score

8.6 /10

32 fundamental signals · 10 models active

Value Trap Risk

SAFE (0/100)

Quick Summary — As of 2026-08-27, Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited (HMY) trades at $21.03, versus a $19.78 median fair value across its 10 active models — 6.0% below the current price. QOC: 8.6/10. Value Trap Risk: 0/100 (SAFE). 10/13 models active. Within that set, the Bayesian DCF component alone returns $31.31.

Key Facts

Ticker
HMY
Price
$21.03
Quality Score
8.6/10
Value Trap Risk
0/100
Models Active
10/13
Last Updated
Strength: Bayesian DCF suggests +48.9% upside with 55% confidence
Risk: Limited model coverage (10/13) may reduce confidence

Is Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited (HMY) Undervalued or Overvalued in 2026?

According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited (HMY) appears fairly valued as of : the median of 10 independent fair value estimates is $19.78, within 6.0% of the current price of $21.03. Estimates range from $4.44 to $31.31. HMY scores 8.6/10 on fundamental quality and 0/100 on value-trap risk.

For context, the median US equity CirclFi rates trades at an implied -23.7% versus its own 13-model consensus, across 3,801 rated companies as of 2026-08-27. HMY’s -6.0% gap is narrower than that market norm, and the Gold sector median is -28.9%. Full market index →

This verdict compares price to intrinsic value only — it is not a buy or sell rating. For the decision case (bull vs bear arguments, risk factors, peers), read Should You Buy Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited Stock in 2026? →

What Fair Value Does Each Model Give HMY?

10 Intrinsic Value Models vs. Current Price ($21.03)

Core Models (Unlocked)
Model Fair Value Upside
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $31.31 +48.9%
Ensemble · Low Conviction
 $19.43 -7.6%
Scenario · Medium Conviction
 $23.57 +12.1%
Intrinsic · High Conviction
 $10.61 -49.5%
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What Is HMY's Fair Value Range?

Spread across 10 independent models · $4.44 to $31.31

CirclFi's 10 active models place Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited (HMY) between $4.44 and $31.31 per share, a spread of 136% of the median. The median of that range — $19.78 — is the fair value CirclFi publishes for HMY, against a current price of $21.03.

Low · Markov DDMHigh · Bayesian DCF
$4.44median $19.78$31.31
Where the range comes from
Most bearish modelMarkov DDM$4.44
Most bullish modelBayesian DCF$31.31
Model agreement3 bullish · 5 bearishwide

A band this wide is itself the finding. When independent methods land far apart, they are reading a business whose value depends heavily on which lens you apply — volatile earnings, heavy reinvestment, or an asset base that cash-flow and asset-based methods score differently. That disagreement is information: it says the choice of method matters more than usual for HMY. Treat the median as one reading among several and compare the individual models below before acting.

Every figure above is one model's standalone output on HMY, not a CirclFi price target. How each model works →

What Is Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited (HMY) Worth in 2026?

According to the CirclFi Deep Alpha Valuation Engine, Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited's intrinsic value is estimated at $19.78, presenting a divided outlook at the current price of $21.03. With a median implied return of -6.0% across a split 3–5 (bull–bear) consensus, the model spread of +127.8% underscores analytical uncertainty. Notably, Bayesian DCF sees the most upside at +48.9% (fair value: $31.31), while Markov DDM is the most conservative at -78.9% ($4.44). The spread between these extremes — +127.8% — reveals how different analytical frameworks can reach starkly different conclusions.

What Do the Models Say About HMY?

10 of 13 models are currently active for HMY. Of these, 4 models suggest upside while 6 models suggest overvaluation. Taken together, their median fair value for HMY is $19.78 — the figure CirclFi publishes as this stock's fair value. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, returns $31.31 on its own, implying +48.9% upside from the current price. See which stocks rank higher →

How Does HMY Rank in Gold?

Among 57 Gold stocks, HMY ranks #7 by Quality of Company score. CirclFi's QOC score of 8.6/10 evaluates 32 fundamental signals. A score of 8.6 places HMY in the top tier.

See all Most Undervalued Gold Stocks →

Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited operates in a competitive landscape where fundamental quality metrics are key differentiators for long-term value creation.

Is HMY a Value Trap?

CirclFi's Value Trap algorithm assigns HMY a score of 0/100 (SAFE). This indicates minimal risk. Fundamentals are healthy. The score cross-references apparent undervaluation against fundamental deterioration signals. Browse lowest value-trap stocks →

Multi-Model Methodology

10 of 13 models are active for Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited. Broad coverage provides high confidence. Each model applies a fundamentally different valuation philosophy. See the complete methodology →

According to the CirclFi Quality of Company (QOC) framework, Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited earns a quality score of 8.6/10. This robust rating reflects the company's standing across 32 fundamental signals spanning profitability, growth consistency, balance sheet strength, and capital allocation efficiency.

The gap between the most bullish and bearish model spans +127.8% — demonstrating why single-model analysis is dangerous. Browse all stocks with 13-model coverage →

Data Sources & Confidence

Every HMY valuation is built from SEC EDGAR XBRL filings — 700+ standardized financial tags. Macroeconomic context from FRED calibrates discount rates, while GDELT news sentiment feeds into our Sentiment SOTP model. All pipelines run daily. Read the complete data methodology →

Across HMY's 10 active models, average confidence is 40%. Lower confidence may reflect limited history or high volatility.

CirclFi's output is a research starting point, not a buy/sell signal. All data updates daily. Read the full methodology →

This analysis is produced by the CirclFi Valuation Engine using quantitative models applied to SEC EDGAR filings, public market feeds, and FRED macroeconomic indicators. It is not financial advice.

Read the full investment analysis: Should You Buy Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited Stock in 2026? →

Bull case, bear case, risk factors & peer comparison — updated daily

Which Similar Gold Stocks Should You Also Analyze?

11 related Gold stocks with 13-model coverage

BBarrick Mining CorporationQOC 8.8AUAngloGold Ashanti plcQOC 8.4DRDDRDGOLD LimitedQOC 9.0IDRIdaho Strategic Resources, Inc.QOC 8.4CDECoeur Mining, Inc.QOC 9.0KGCKinross Gold CorporationQOC 8.2GOROGoldgroup Mining Inc.QOC 5.8NGLDNevada Canyon Gold Corp.QOC 4.6WPMWheaton Precious Metals Corp.QOC 2.8FSMFortuna Mining Corp.QOC 9.3NEMNewmont CorporationQOC 9.3

Read investment analysis: B · AU · DRD · IDR · CDE · KGC · GORO · NGLD · WPM · FSM · NEM

Which Other Stocks Have a Similar Quality Score to HMY?

7 companies across all industries closest to HMY’s Quality of Company score of 8.6/10.

CODACoda Octopus Group, Inc.QOC 8.6MCOMoody's CorporationQOC 8.6GLGlobe Life Inc.QOC 8.6DORMDorman Products, Inc.QOC 8.6NOCNorthrop Grumman CorporationQOC 8.6EWBCEast West Bancorp, Inc.QOC 8.6NVDANVIDIA CorporationQOC 10.0

Read investment analysis: CODA · MCO · GL · DORM · NOC · EWBC · NVDA

Where Does HMY Sit in CirclFi's Gold Rankings?

HMY is ranked against every other Gold stock CirclFi covers in each of these screens.

See all Gold stocks ranked →

What Else Do Investors Ask About Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited’s Valuation?

What is Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited's intrinsic value in 2026?

CirclFi puts Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited (HMY)'s intrinsic value at $19.78 — the median of 10 independent model estimates as of 2026-08-27, ranging from $4.44 to $31.31. One component of that median, the Bayesian DCF, runs 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations with jump-diffusion and returns $31.31 on its own. The Quality of Company score is 8.6/10 across 32 fundamental signals. All models use SEC EDGAR filings updated daily. See our methodology page for how each model works.

Is HMY overvalued or undervalued right now?

At $21.03, 4 of 10 active models suggest HMY may be undervalued, while 6 indicate potential overvaluation. The median of all 10 fair value estimates is $19.78, within 6.0% of the current price of $21.03 — a consensus view that HMY is fairly valued. The assessment depends on which methodology best fits Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited's business model in Gold.

What does a Quality of Company score of 8.6 mean for HMY?

Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited's QOC of 8.6/10 reflects 32 fundamental signals: profitability margins, revenue growth consistency, balance sheet leverage, free cash flow generation, and capital allocation efficiency. Scores above 7 indicate strong fundamentals and disciplined management.

How many valuation models does CirclFi run on HMY?

CirclFi analyzes HMY with 13 institutional-grade models daily: Bayesian DCF (Monte Carlo + jump-diffusion), EPV (Greenwald zero-growth), EROIC Spread (McKinsey reinvestment), First Chicago (3-scenario), Markov DDM (regime-switching), ML-RIV (machine learning residual income), Dynamic NAV (asset-based), PWERM (option-theoretic), Regime Cross-Sectional (relative), Sentiment SOTP (hybrid), CUCE Ensemble (meta-model), FTNN Topology (neural network), and RCMH-DCF (conditional regime). Currently 10 of 13 are active for this stock. Read the full methodology →

Which valuation models are most bullish and most bearish on HMY?

Of the 10 models currently active on HMY, Bayesian DCF is the most bullish at $31.31 per share, and Markov DDM is the most bearish at $4.44. CirclFi's published fair value for HMY is the median of that range, $19.78, not either extreme. The gap between the two ends equals 136% of the median — a wide spread, meaning the methods genuinely disagree and the median should carry less weight. Browse stocks by value-trap risk →

Is HMY a value trap in 2026?

Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited's Value Trap score is 0/100 (SAFE). This low score indicates the current valuation is not artificially depressed by fundamental deterioration, suggesting genuine opportunity rather than a trap.

Cite this analysis — “According to CirclFi’s 10-model valuation engine, Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited (HMY) has a median fair value of $19.78 — within 6.0% of the current price of $21.03 — as of 2026-08-27.” Source: circlfi.com/stock/HMY/ · Methodology
Primary sources for this HMY valuation

Market data for HMY as of ; valuations recomputed .

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